Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why
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Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why
#2I guess climate scientists don't use version control?
Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why
#3Well, politicians aren't doing anything anyway, whether the models predict catastrophe or CATASTROPHE. Already according to the 3° sensitivity predictions we would need an effort that rivals WW2 to stay below 1.5°. Yet major countries are led by climate denialists.
Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why
#4Scientists making the models prly thought the politicans needed a helping hand.
Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why
#5At the end of the article, apparently it has something to do with clouds.
Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why
#6I guess climate scientists don't use version control?
The article isn't very precise, but my understanding was that the run some kind of machine learning based on past data. Adding in the more recent data changed the predictions dramatically.
So it's not an issue of versioning (I assume they could reproduce the old results using the old data).
Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why
#7The 27-model average referenced in this article is 3.86 degrees C.
Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why
#8So, holistically, it would seem like warming (a fever) or Coronavirus (anti-bodies) is part of the planets immune system, but humans are too advanced.
Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why
#9At the end of the article, apparently it has something to do with clouds.
I’ve read a few times that clouds are a big problem for climate modelers as they are far more complex in their implications for the climate than my grade school planet heats > evaporation > cloud forms > rain falls understanding of them suggests.
There’s a nice article here on the issue and frustration of clouds for climate modelers by the head of the Royal Meteorological Society here: https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-clouds-hold-key-b...
Re: Climate models are running red hot, and scientists don’t know why
#10The title seems like clickbait, and the last part of the article does explain that the scientists actually know that new cloud models are mostly responsible for the change.
The big question is then of course whether the new cloud model is wrong and the temperature increase therefore as well, or whether the new cloud model is more accurate than previous ones and the temperature increase is a real effect.
I found another article that looks at this in a bit more detail:
https://news.ucar.edu/132678/ncars-new-climate-model-running...
The linked paper this is based on has the following as the last sentence:
> What scares us is not that the CESM2ECS is wrong (all models are wrong, [Box, 1976]) but that it might be right.