271–280 of 560 posts
What is the typical return date for Chinese living in Europe and the US regarding CNY? It is my understanding that the CNY was not cancelled and many will have gone back to visit family in China, at least outside the highly affected areas. When will they fly back?
Gorbachev used to say that Chernobyl was where the USSR really started to crumble. The disaster made clear how morally bankrupt and technically incompetent the system really was, wiping out any remaining goodwill or trust. Similarly, Katrina was where the semi-fascist US consensus under GW Bush went to pieces. I suspect China will experience a similar moment at some point. This might well be it.
My initial reaction to the article was that it doesn't sound like the cash injection has much to do with the corona virus. Isn't the reaction to the virus somewhat overblown? > adding the total liquidity in the banking system will be 900 billion yuan higher than the same period in 2019 after the injection In other words, 300 billion yuan less without the cash injection. I may be wrong, as I don't see the reaction to…
The direct linkages to the economy aren't the killer, it's that it's hitting at a time when the system's credit (immune) system is already not at it's strongest that worries policymakers.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Liquidity has been anything but withheld in the western world. Look at the G4 balance sheets and interest rates in the past decade.
What do you mean? Bernanke himself has estimated that interest rates should have been as low as -4% during the period from 2009 to 2015 ( https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2015/04/28/the-t... ). They kept them super high at 0%, up to 4% higher than the equilibrium estimate, which caused inflation to perpetually undershoot and people's careers to be stunted. On top of that, they started giving out interest o…
Gorbachev used to say that Chernobyl was where the USSR really started to crumble. The disaster made clear how morally bankrupt and technically incompetent the system really was, wiping out any remaining goodwill or trust. Similarly, Katrina was where the semi-fascist US consensus under GW Bush went to pieces. I suspect China will experience a similar moment at some point. This might well be it.
This might be similar, but I see zero chance of Xi's power taking a hit. For as long as party's institutes are intact, he will be there. Some people began to speculate that Xi wasn't seen for the last 3 days, and sudden activity of "party elders," but I bet this is just an enormous amounts of wishful thinking showing up. Xi's "system" has an expiration date attached, but it's not tomorrow. Following on that Gorbachev…
Xi's behavior does not strike me as that of someone who is as confident as you. Consider how he throws a tantrum at the mere suggestion that Taiwan may be an independent country.
A friend of mine is leaving HK today - he lives there, so this is not a casual trip abroad. He said the level of fear is making it impossible to live there as a single person. The shops and restaurants are closed. Even his own employer shut its doors indefinitely - and they’re just a video production company. The virus won’t be what ruins China. It’s the panic itself.
Ask HN: Should I be worried about the PANIC around the current situations, will they act as a rescission trigger? Can I assume a proportional impact on crypto-currency market as well? More importantly, I'm considering a move from a Bn$ organization to a safety concerned mobile-app product startup, How to access whether a start-up can survive if the situation end-up on the negative side, in the next 6 months.
People have been saying they expect a recession in the next 2 years for the last 2 years and now is no different. If it was easy to predict when the least risky time is to make a risky decision, then it wouldn't be risky, gambling wouldn't be a thing, and life would be forever boring.
WHAT is going to cause the crash? Which industry has a fundamental imbalance? It's always just some vague notion that "something" isn't right.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
This kind of analysis I'm seeing everywhere is so misguided. The reason the local government didn't report on the situation accurately and even punished some journalists for speaking about it is a flaw of how their country is run and how their command structure incentives are poorly set up. This isn't a new problem and it's why we have converged to a different system in most of the West. The government coming in late…
While I'm not saying you're wrong, I think it's worth pointing out that the reason the 1918 flupandemic was called the "Spanish flu" for many years, was that Spain was the first nation to admit that there was a problem. They weren't the first, or even second or third nation to get it, just the first to admit it. So the problem of not admitting the seriousness of the situation, is not a new one. Which is not to say th…
You would have a point if the debate was about the relative moral standing of China. It's not, as much as the Communist Party wants to call opponents racist or anti-Chinese which is pure deflection. From an objective point of view, Communist China's authoritarianism is putting the whole world at risk.
My wife asked me at breakfast why the new virus is such a big deal: hundreds dying vs. the 5K to 10K babies and infants who die everyday in the world from dehydration and/or starvation. My response was exponential growth of viruses and mutation into something very deadly. China is taking the outbreak seriously, locking down large and high population regions. I wondered if some of that is PR since after a previous out…
The Chinese gov't is publishing totally unreliable numbers on "confirmed". ...but the fact that confirmed cases are popping up all around the world, there is ZERO chance that the true number of infected people is 15,000 in China.
That just doesn't make sense statistically.
Gorbachev used to say that Chernobyl was where the USSR really started to crumble. The disaster made clear how morally bankrupt and technically incompetent the system really was, wiping out any remaining goodwill or trust. Similarly, Katrina was where the semi-fascist US consensus under GW Bush went to pieces. I suspect China will experience a similar moment at some point. This might well be it.
1.) internal political war between xi jing ping of the old guards and the moderates. Check sinoinsider if you wish to know more.
2.) internal provincial wars with Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong.
3.) conflicts with immediate neighbors over the south sea and other illegitimate claims, including Vietnam, Taiwan, Indonesia, and Philippines.
4.) trade wars with South Korea, japan, US, and Europe. More and more factories are shutting down in China in favor of other countries
5.) debt war to derisk 400 percent Debt to GDP in consumer, corporate and government debts. This economic shutdown will at a minimum take 3% off of China’s proclaimed 6% gdp growth
6.) globalism vs populism as Americans realized they have lost 1.6 million jobs to China since 1990.
7.) health wars with the recent pig flu, Wuhan flu and now bird flu
One must realize that China is losing ALL of these wars currently. The finances, social fabrics, and public anger (check Chinese netizens fight over Wuhan) are stretched to the limit. It’s only a matter of time