Earlier quoted context omitted.
Any idea what the rates are for the corona virus?
Well 170/~7000 is ~2.4% which is about 8x deadlier.
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WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency
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Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency
#82It's about time... All early characteristics of the novel coronavirus indicate it's far more dangerous than SARS/MERS/seasonal flu (which kills 30-60k/year in the US) so, unless a cure is found soon, we should expect it to kill more people than these other diseases combined : https://mobile.twitter.com/zorinaq/status/122263149332482867...
I think it would be more helpful to cite actual epidemiology research and public health professionals rather than people who seem to use people's fears to garner attention.
Edit: In order to make this a little less dismissive, the actual argument in that Twitter post is that due to lag between first symptoms appearing and death, you can't divide fatalities by total cases to get the mortality rate, and should instead use total cases N days ago. Makes sense superficially, but
* cases that get reported are biased towards people who get more sick
* the 20-56% mortality rate claimed based on guessing N=6 is inconsistent with the mortality rates outside of China, where no one has died so far.
But I'm no epidemiologist, so don't believe me either.
Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency
#83For those who are referencing the flu and it's mortality rate here are estimates from the CDC for 2019 * 15,000,000 – 21,000,000 who had the flu * 8,200 – 20,000 deaths from the flu The morality rate ranges from 0.03% to 0.09% or 3/10000 9/10000 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-e...
Any idea what the rates are for the corona virus?
It's currently 171 deaths, 8,288 confirmed infected, which is 2% dead. However, what needs to be taken into consideration is that infected individuals don't die the day they are confirmed infected, there is a lag of several days.
Assuming the average time from symptom onset and diagnosis to death is 7 days, we're looking at at 20% death rate (830 confirmed infected 1 week ago). Even a 5 day lag between symptom onset to death is a ~9% death rate (1,975 confirmed infected 5 days ago).
This is exactly how the fatality rate of SARS played out.
Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency
#84Also good real-time chart: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h... tracks confirmed cases and recoveries too.
Here’s another chart that’s more mobile responsive: https://flu.io/
Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency
#85It's about time... All early characteristics of the novel coronavirus indicate it's far more dangerous than SARS/MERS/seasonal flu (which kills 30-60k/year in the US) so, unless a cure is found soon, we should expect it to kill more people than these other diseases combined : https://mobile.twitter.com/zorinaq/status/122263149332482867...
Viruses tend to become less deadly as they spread because dead people don't spread disease. Typically it mutates slightly into a less deadly strain. Then that strain spreads more quickly and gives the population some level of immunity against the more deadly one.
> Viruses tend to become less deadly as they spread because dead people don't spread disease.
This is why the longer incubation time of this coronavirus is such a concern. It gives a potentially fatal disease more time to spread before it self limits. Also, I've heard reports that some infected are asymptomatic, so it may continue to spread even while taking out some people.
Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency
#86Also good real-time chart: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h... tracks confirmed cases and recoveries too.
BNO has a helpful timeline with a timestamp for each individual case update (and links to reputable sources):
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus...
Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency
#87Running the official numbers, mortality rate is less than 3%. If we plug in estimative models claiming 25000+ unrecorded infections, mortality is less than 1%. Unless you are in a sensitive age group or have other health problems, data suggests you're most likely to get over it as a regular flu. It's not all perfect and is worse than a regular flu, but especially now after the announcement some people may way over-st…
> If we plug in estimative models claiming 25000+ unrecorded infections
Shouldn't you also plug in estimated unreported fatalities too?
Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency
#88Earlier quoted context omitted.
Could you add the timeframe of each pandemic? I believe the coronavirus is 1-2 months old, but how long was SARS to get to 774? I feel like the comparaison isn't great without timeline.
Here are some graphs showing exactly that: https://ncov.r6.no/ It's also worth noting that the ~8k confirmed cases are bottlenecked by how fast China can perform tests. Here's an article guesstimating that there were up to 100k infections a few days ago: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jan/26/coronavirus-...
> It's also worth noting that the ~8k confirmed cases are bottlenecked by how fast China can perform tests.
Do you have more info on this? I thought the test was a simple swab deal that a country like China could crank through like nobody's business. Like, at least for a few more orders of magnitude.
Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency
#89[deleted]
Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency
#90It's about time... All early characteristics of the novel coronavirus indicate it's far more dangerous than SARS/MERS/seasonal flu (which kills 30-60k/year in the US) so, unless a cure is found soon, we should expect it to kill more people than these other diseases combined : https://mobile.twitter.com/zorinaq/status/122263149332482867...
Viruses tend to become less deadly as they spread because dead people don't spread disease. Typically it mutates slightly into a less deadly strain. Then that strain spreads more quickly and gives the population some level of immunity against the more deadly one.
This sounds like extremely wishful thinking. Is there some support for this claim?