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WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

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Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#71

For those who are referencing the flu and it's mortality rate here are estimates from the CDC for 2019 * 15,000,000 – 21,000,000 who had the flu * 8,200 – 20,000 deaths from the flu The morality rate ranges from 0.03% to 0.09% or 3/10000 9/10000 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-e...

Global numbers are more interesting.

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#72

For those who are referencing the flu and it's mortality rate here are estimates from the CDC for 2019 * 15,000,000 – 21,000,000 who had the flu * 8,200 – 20,000 deaths from the flu The morality rate ranges from 0.03% to 0.09% or 3/10000 9/10000 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-e...

Any idea what the rates are for the corona virus?

[deleted]

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#73

This is (imo) the right course of action to (at minimum) alert countries wrt the gravity of this outbreak; however, I was disappointed to see the tiptoeing around potentially offending China. From the press conference, it seemed that Dr. Tedros made it painfully (maybe even unnecessarily) clear that this action wasn't faulting China for their handling of this situation. It's just weird to see that global politics is…

It's not just politics. This is matter of trying to placate China so that they don't hide numbers from international/outside health organizations to save face. My understanding is that China was less than forthcoming about actual infection/death rates when SARS was making it's rounds. Disclaimer: I do not have a source for this. This is heresay from the hubub around the current crisis so take it with a grain of salt.

“Save face”. Unfortunately there is a LOT to unpack in that statement, and will continue to be a difficult problem throughout the coming century.

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#74

Running the official numbers, mortality rate is less than 3%. If we plug in estimative models claiming 25000+ unrecorded infections, mortality is less than 1%. Unless you are in a sensitive age group or have other health problems, data suggests you're most likely to get over it as a regular flu. It's not all perfect and is worse than a regular flu, but especially now after the announcement some people may way over-st…

These calculations assume that no one else infected dies. Seems overly optimistic, especially given that ~1200 patients are in serious or critical condition.

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#75

Can we PLEASE collectively put our manners aside and confront people who are not covering their mouths when they cough? I'm very aggravated that people don't. What is going through the mind of a person who deep coughs, open mouth, without cover, in public transport? It's depressing.

That's a good way to get shot, beaten, or stabbed. You're worried about the wrong ambulance bill.

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just politics. This is matter of trying to placate China so that they don't hide numbers from international/outside health organizations to save face. My understanding is that China was less than forthcoming about actual infection/death rates when SARS was making it's rounds. Disclaimer: I do not have a source for this. This is heresay from the hubub around the current crisis so take it with a grain of salt.

“Save face”. Unfortunately there is a LOT to unpack in that statement, and will continue to be a difficult problem throughout the coming century.

That wasn't necessarily meant to be derogatory. And you are right, there is indeed a lot to unpack. My wording there might be a bit too glib.

Re: WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency

#80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any idea what the rates are for the corona virus?

The official figures in China are 8,163 cases 171 deaths which is 2% right now, but take these with a big grain of salt. They could go up (some of those confirmed cases will be very recent and may get worse) or down (more cases might have happened but be unreported). Its really hard to tell what it will look like in a month or two.

That 2% is only among those confirmed. When most people get sick they just stay home, then get better and never visit hospital or get into confirmed cases. Those who die usually have some other disease as well.
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