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Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

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41–50 of 85 posts

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#41
post #39

I see a lot of people discussing the fatality rate, and trying to lower the importance of being infected based on that. We should keep in mind that "surviving" the virus does not mean you will live happily ever after. A lot of SARS patients that "recovered" ended up with lung or kidney disease afterward.

People are looking at the fatality rate as a % of total infected, which is a misleading statistic. A better metric would be fatality : recovery rate.

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#42
post #39

I see a lot of people discussing the fatality rate, and trying to lower the importance of being infected based on that. We should keep in mind that "surviving" the virus does not mean you will live happily ever after. A lot of SARS patients that "recovered" ended up with lung or kidney disease afterward.

People are looking at the fatality rate as a % of total infected, which is a misleading statistic. A better metric would be fatality : recovery rate.

That is also misleading.

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#43
post #7

Missing "[of Coronavirus]". Yeah the guideline doesn't say it, and we probably can assume what infection they're talking about, but.. Reports say the German man who got the virus after having a business meeting with a Chinese visitor said he had a mild fever in the weekend and slept it off, and came to work on Monday, which must mean he had recovered. Reading that makes me think the virus isn't a death sentence like…

It was established pretty early that mortality is quite low (3-10X lower than SARS?), however it also seems to be transmitted more easily.

Isn't the mortality low but the need for hospitalisation very high (10% maybe)? That's fine if you have 1000 people infected because you can free up (say) 100 hospital beds and save those 100 people. But if 1m people get it in your city, you won't be able to get 100k hospital beds from nowhere. So then a chunk of those people will die, even if only for want of an IV drip and some tlc.

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#44
Quote: "Two passengers refused to take the test. And health officials say they will continue to persuade them to get tested.".

Wait, what? wtf is that even possible with a government chartered flight? And then what, the 2 were just left to go home and officials come to them every day "hey, wanna get tested today?"

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#45

Is testing fast now? Do patients who don't have symptoms spread it effectively? I'm not an expert, but I see two main possibilities: It can be contained. Or it will spread all around the world and only vaccines will later make it go away, if a large enough percentage of the population is vaccinated. How long does it take to create a vaccine nowadays? And mass production...

Here's a Twitter thread from an expert with thoughts on what we'll need to do if it's not contained: https://twitter.com/t_inglesby/status/1221434570714669056

It's heartening to see the way that we're reacting to this threat.

We need to be doing exactly the same thing in the fight against climate change.

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#46
post #7

Missing "[of Coronavirus]". Yeah the guideline doesn't say it, and we probably can assume what infection they're talking about, but.. Reports say the German man who got the virus after having a business meeting with a Chinese visitor said he had a mild fever in the weekend and slept it off, and came to work on Monday, which must mean he had recovered. Reading that makes me think the virus isn't a death sentence like…

If an infectious disease kills 1% of infected people it is likely to kill more people in total than one that kills 100% (unless a ubiquitous animal reservoir exists).

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#47
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's only a 3%(-ish) chance of dying going by numbers published so far. That's much higher than a regular flu though.

How do you get to that number?

I'm just dividing the number of (known) deaths by the number of known infections.

As other's have pointed out this isn't the most reliable way of doing it, but it gives some indication.

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s so infuriating to try to read that great info in a million disjointed tweets. I don’t get Twitter character limits at all in the year 2020.

It's so infuriating to see people using Twitter for what it's not, and also in this case for causing undue worry.

It's indeed sad, but apparently many people think "if it's good enough for the POTUS, it's good enough for me!"

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#49
The article says a "new type of coronavirus", which is presumably a misunderstanding on the reporter's part; it seems more likely that these are asymptomatic carriers of the same virus.

However, if there really is a symptomless or near-symptomless variant, this would actually be great news, since it would spread rapidly and provide immunity against virulent strains. And this in fact is what appeared to happen with the Spanish flu, where natural selection tended to prefer less virulent strains. (Really sick people stay home/hospitalized and don't spread the virus; less sick or asymptomatic carriers move around and spread it.)

Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms

#50
This is the first thing that came into my mind when I read that various governments wanted to evacuate their nationals from Wuhan. THAT IS HOW YOU HELP THE VIRUS TO SPREAD, DUMMIES!

I get that they want their citizens to be safe (genuinely, or to win political points at home - it does not matter), but it goes directly against best practices in disease control.

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