I see a lot of people discussing the fatality rate, and trying to lower the importance of being infected based on that. We should keep in mind that "surviving" the virus does not mean you will live happily ever after. A lot of SARS patients that "recovered" ended up with lung or kidney disease afterward.
Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms
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Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms
#42I see a lot of people discussing the fatality rate, and trying to lower the importance of being infected based on that. We should keep in mind that "surviving" the virus does not mean you will live happily ever after. A lot of SARS patients that "recovered" ended up with lung or kidney disease afterward.
People are looking at the fatality rate as a % of total infected, which is a misleading statistic. A better metric would be fatality : recovery rate.
Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms
#43Missing "[of Coronavirus]". Yeah the guideline doesn't say it, and we probably can assume what infection they're talking about, but.. Reports say the German man who got the virus after having a business meeting with a Chinese visitor said he had a mild fever in the weekend and slept it off, and came to work on Monday, which must mean he had recovered. Reading that makes me think the virus isn't a death sentence like…
It was established pretty early that mortality is quite low (3-10X lower than SARS?), however it also seems to be transmitted more easily.
Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms
#44Wait, what? wtf is that even possible with a government chartered flight? And then what, the 2 were just left to go home and officials come to them every day "hey, wanna get tested today?"
Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms
#45Is testing fast now? Do patients who don't have symptoms spread it effectively? I'm not an expert, but I see two main possibilities: It can be contained. Or it will spread all around the world and only vaccines will later make it go away, if a large enough percentage of the population is vaccinated. How long does it take to create a vaccine nowadays? And mass production...
Here's a Twitter thread from an expert with thoughts on what we'll need to do if it's not contained: https://twitter.com/t_inglesby/status/1221434570714669056
We need to be doing exactly the same thing in the fight against climate change.
Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms
#46Missing "[of Coronavirus]". Yeah the guideline doesn't say it, and we probably can assume what infection they're talking about, but.. Reports say the German man who got the virus after having a business meeting with a Chinese visitor said he had a mild fever in the weekend and slept it off, and came to work on Monday, which must mean he had recovered. Reading that makes me think the virus isn't a death sentence like…
Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms
#47Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's only a 3%(-ish) chance of dying going by numbers published so far. That's much higher than a regular flu though.
How do you get to that number?
As other's have pointed out this isn't the most reliable way of doing it, but it gives some indication.
Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s so infuriating to try to read that great info in a million disjointed tweets. I don’t get Twitter character limits at all in the year 2020.
It's so infuriating to see people using Twitter for what it's not, and also in this case for causing undue worry.
Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms
#49However, if there really is a symptomless or near-symptomless variant, this would actually be great news, since it would spread rapidly and provide immunity against virulent strains. And this in fact is what appeared to happen with the Spanish flu, where natural selection tended to prefer less virulent strains. (Really sick people stay home/hospitalized and don't spread the virus; less sick or asymptomatic carriers move around and spread it.)
Re: Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms
#50I get that they want their citizens to be safe (genuinely, or to win political points at home - it does not matter), but it goes directly against best practices in disease control.