Live data from Hacker News

New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in a wildlife market

nationalgeographic.com

291–300 of 350 posts

Re: New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in a wildlife market

#291

President Xi has warned that the virus is spreading. His intervention seems to be unprecedented. Is it worse than what it seems to be? They have quarantined whole cities and are building a hospital at war scale especially for this. Maybe the Chinese know something that the world doesn't know yet.

Anecdotal (not official) reports suggest as many as 100,000 infections in Wuhan area. There are claims the virus may be spread through eyes as well as inhalation. Additional unsubstantiated claims suggest low to no fever during incubation period, making detection difficult. The most sensationalist claim making the rounds is that a known Wuhan area PLA biolab may have failed to contain this pathogen. In the end none o…

"In the end none of the above matters at all."

It matters critically if China, or anyone else, is in any way lying about anything.

Official reports are 2K infected, if it's actually 100K and they are not telling the WHO, it's really, really bad.

What the 'put on the news' is another matter and gray area concerning information control in crisis times (i.e. trying to stop mass panic). But with the WHO and other governments, it's another story.

It's not like they can entirely hide these things, I really wonder what kind of other 'interested parties' are making their own clandestine measurements.

Re: New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in a wildlife market

#292
post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't the very fact people eat bats alarming? Who would eat bats voluntarily? They probably don't have much choice there.

In Asia people eat a lot of really weird stuff for us Westerners. I live in Thailand with my Thai girlfriend. I don't understand why my girlfriend likes to eat various kinds of insects and larva and why people in my village like to eat a pigs' brains. Yesterday my girlfriend showed me a YouTube movie of a Chinese girl eating a live octopus. I also know some people like to eat snakes around here. Different strokes for…

You live in a Thai village? How do the costs compare to living in a larger city?

Re: New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in a wildlife market

#293

How common is for SARS coronaviruses to share the same envelope proteins? I downloaded 200 CoV envelope proteins from NCBI, and I couldn't find any pair of identical proteins. As someone unfamiliar with virology, I'm curious if there are any explanations for how come the protein envelope of 2019-nCoV[1] is the same as the protein envelope described by the Institute of Military Medicine Nanjing Command 2 years ago in…

It's almost certainly a coincidence. Bats don't have an inflammatory response to viral infections like other mammals [1] so viruses are basically harmless to them and they are perfect carriers, with many species having life expectancies reaching 2-3 decades. Studies of regional populations of bats have found that if a virus makes it into a bat population, it will usually spread to 50-90% of the total population (where virus = rabies and region = Western Europe) [2]. This Wuhan virus evolving from another SARS-like virus while maintaining surface markers is squarely in the realm of possibility.

[1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6410205/

[2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1539106/

Re: New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in a wildlife market

#294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

General consensus so far seems to be about twice as fatal as the annual flu. (Which says nothing about transmissibility rate / R0, which they are still figuring out.) Really rough numbers, annual flu is around 0.1% , while the spanish flu was more like 2.5% So, not a pandemic in terms of fatality. General sense so far seems to be it's more of a big deal than the (run-of-the-mill) flu, less of a big deal than SARS. (K…

The spanish flu killed way more than that, at least according to wikipedia. Something like 10-20%. It was a monumental event that killed a percentage of the entire global population. The kind of thing you can only call a true plague. Think like the black plague, where a substantial percentage of some populations where wiped off the face of the earn. Imagine 1/3 or 1/2 of your community dying. I keep seeing this 2.5%…

You're right - it's strange, this article seems to contradict itself within one paragraph. 500 million afflicted, 50 - 100 million deaths, at least it says ">" 2.5% fatality.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3291398/

Re: New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in a wildlife market

#295
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most Chinese people have no so much medical common sense I disagree. There are no anti-vaxxers in China. I find it’s the opposite, where they often want to be over medicated.

Doctors are the one driving people away from hospitals in China, since they act like a normal bureaucracy where they don't earn much. I have experienced it first hand and I can tell you that on all honesty, healthcare in general is the biggest issue affecting the Chinese. Most of them don't realise how bad it is because that is what they know but even places in Latin America have way better patience care with less de…

Not true. Anecdotal experiences should not be counted when far more reliable source exist. The life expectancy of an average Chinese 76 while that of an average American is 79. It is quite significant when you compare the healthcare cost of either countries. Do you want your doctor babysitting you or spend that time curing more patients?

Re: New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in a wildlife market

#296
post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Shanghai (at least, Pudong and Puxi), mask usage has jumped dramatically since last week. I haven't actually kept score, but my impressions of usage from walking around a lot are: - Summer/spring (lower pollution — Chinese AQI around 60–100, with spikes to 150): 5-10% of people wear masks outdoors. The indoor rate is lower (2-3%?). - December/early January (AQI typically above 120): 20-30% outdoors. The indoor rat…

This is consistent with my observations in the Jiading area - low pollution days but mask usage around 80% for general populace and 95% for service workers (store clerks, etc). We’ve decided to leave China before things get any worse. I’m not looking forward to bringing my family through the airport this week though...

Good luck and safe travels!

Re: New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in a wildlife market

#297
post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It matters because face masks are not enough to prevent transmission, which matters relative to the common cold only because this virus kills. The common cold does not.

But this is taken care of by face marks and hand washing, because what would be happening is you touch your eyes. If you're using a face mask, you should be washing your hands anyway, because if you think it's working, the moment you touch it you've come in contact with virus.

how long can a virus live on a face mask?

Re: New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in a wildlife market

#298
post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once again, the claim was: > From what I've read it came from bats. Most probably bats being eaten.[1] This claim is not found in > 1. https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/xgqy3n/scientists-now-thi... Simple as that.

There are more news outlets reporting this fact than Vice. I’m commenting on the actual facts not the legitimacy of whatever source OP decided to cite.

Facts in this case can only be reached through consensus of the scientific community. Journalism can only confirm so far as to when who did what, they simply don’t possess the professional knowledge to assert the truthfulness of a scientific theory.

Re: New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in a wildlife market

#299
post #180

Based on documented facts and best epidemiological guesses about the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV, I think it will probably turn into a pandemic affecting most countries. Let's review: • human-to-human transmission while asymptomatic, truly the killer feature [1] • 15% mortality rate in first patients (6 of 41 are dead) [2] • cases/deaths doubling every 2 days [public data] • epidemiologist predicts 100x more infectio…

> 15% mortality rate in first patients (6 of 41 are dead) [2]

This early report I believe is why the leaks (ie Romania and Brazil) from the bio facilities are stating such high numbers.

That's the official number they had, so what they thought was true, that's what people are leaking.

Data now seems it's maybe 3%. Unless there's something that confirms that early number.

China might be able to cover up numbers having it. Covering up dead bodies is very hard. We have Webo and it would have leaked by now.

Re: New coronavirus can spread between humans, but started in a wildlife market

#300

How common is for SARS coronaviruses to share the same envelope proteins? I downloaded 200 CoV envelope proteins from NCBI, and I couldn't find any pair of identical proteins. As someone unfamiliar with virology, I'm curious if there are any explanations for how come the protein envelope of 2019-nCoV[1] is the same as the protein envelope described by the Institute of Military Medicine Nanjing Command 2 years ago in…

It's almost certainly a coincidence. Bats don't have an inflammatory response to viral infections like other mammals [1] so viruses are basically harmless to them and they are perfect carriers, with many species having life expectancies reaching 2-3 decades. Studies of regional populations of bats have found that if a virus makes it into a bat population, it will usually spread to 50-90% of the total population (wher…

[deleted]
Post reply on HN