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Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

reuters.com

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Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#211

Post by dougmany »

kgwgk wrote: post #133

The article doesn’t mention (or I’ve missed it) the short squeeze aspect which is definitely one of the drivers. https://investorplace.com/2020/01/play-tesla-stock-short-squ...

from that link: >“We are encouraged by Tesla’s execution and think it deserves to be among the world’s most valuable auto companies, and is perhaps the most important auto company in the world given its EV leadership. However, we think investors will be presented with more attractive opportunities to own the stock in the future,” Jonas said.

It's that "opportunities to own the stock in the future part" that got me. People just want to own the stock. Tesla has gotten big enough so it is pretty unlikely to fail. Customers love the product, there are several "it is the future" features. People want to own a part of that. I don't think many people are selling because of that. Even if it is really expensive right now.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#213

Post by mschuster91 »

gowld wrote: post #104
donogh wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is the Apple of the auto industry. They are getting stellar customer satisfaction ratings, which is translating into brand loyalty[1]. They've built an ecosystem between their above-average EV hardware, industry-leading software (with frequent improvements), and a top-notch charging network. I can see some automakers matching them on hardware, but they have a huge lead in software. Traditional car manufacturers…

> no one else has even come close to matching the 2012 Model S Model S will always be a tiny market. How close are competitors to Model 3? What happens when Tesla employees burn out on Tesla corp and go working for competitors?

That doesn't help competitors very much. Tesla has figured out batteries - no other manufacturer is even close on the naked range of any Tesla model.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#214

Post by bryanlarsen »

zamfi wrote: post #184
bryanlarsen wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A $100B market cap for a fast growing company with $25B in annual sales is on the cheap side, if anything. The real question is why is VWAGY valued so poorly? A $100B market cap for a company with $240B in annual sales means the market is quite pessimistic about VW.

Revenue isn't earnings. A $100B market cap for a fast-growing company with ~$0 profit is definitely not "on the cheap side". But I agree that a $100B market cap for a company with ~$13B in profit is quite pessimistic. VW's future is cloudy.

As Amazon demonstrated quite convincingly, profit is not an appropriate number to value fast growing companies by.

Tesla may or may not be another Amazon, but revenue is the best heuristic we have for any company investing so much into growth. It's not a great heuristic, but it's the best we have.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#215

Post by cobookman »

specialp wrote: post #77
reilly3000 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With each car they get a lifetime of service revenue, mostly without competition. They expand their network effect, their supercharger footprint, and their technology lead as they maintain momentum. Cybertruck is poised to be a giant success, reaching into new markets outside of traditional EV buyers and into rural and suburban light trucks, the highest margin section of auto sales. Finally, its prominence attracts u…

A lot of people have taken a short position and that is driving a lot of this gain. The shorts are getting squeezed bad and have to cover thus further driving up the price. It is a lot harder to make a long term short bet due to the potential of unlimited loss and your shares being recalled. Tesla has done better than expected with the Model 3 despite overpromising a lot and missing a lot of targets. Actually just la…

VW had a similar short run up.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-idUSTRE49R3I92...

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#216

Post by [deleted] »

xedeon wrote: post #138
WBrad wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon has received billions from the US government across his companies. It'd be a slap in the face to the entire US population for Tesla to have a 100% proprietary charging network when we helped get the company going.

You mean the $451.8M Department of Energy loan they used to buy the old NUMMI Toyata plant? Yeah.... They paid that off nine years early with interest. Try again. https://www.tesla.com/blog/tesla-repays-department-energy-lo... Meanwhile, why don't we talk about the GM bailout money? If you can cite a source for the "billions" you mentioned, that would be great to read, since I must've missed that one.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#217

Post by slipheen »

yalogin wrote: post #35

The biggest advantage they have is their supercharging network. Every manufacturer is focusing on ADAS and electric cars but no one is focusing on the network. That is their biggest advantage and the only reason to buy a Tesla, granted their cars are great but without the network it’s just an expensive commute car.

In the interests of public good, the US government ought to mandate a charging standard that all electric cars use, and force all charging stations to use that.

You don't need to go to special BMW gas stations.

In the same way we don't allow movie studios to own movie theaters anymore, we oughtn't allow car companies to own electrical charging stations.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#218

Post by Quarrelsome »

spydum wrote: post #76
Quarrelsome wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

they do "over the air" updates? Of the software that powers the vehicle? Isn't that an _exceptionally_ dangerous vector?

In what way? Sign updates, validate signature, and only apply when car is off and at home charging. Maybe some POST/rollback logic even possible. It's not much different than going to a dealer to get ECU flashed.

In the way that it suddenly becomes technically plausible to make a certain % of vehicles turn into oncoming traffic on a Monday morning.

OR

Make every car on a particular road at a particular time, hit full speed and hit a particular target.

Cars are like crap missiles so making them potentially exploitable is a bit risky.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#219

Post by sillysaurusx »

gowld wrote: post #200
sillysaurusx wrote: post #52

If you're wondering what could possibly justify $100B, think in terms of "What if Tesla put all the other car companies out of business?" This isn't as unlikely as it seems: https://twitter.com/whyvert/status/1219288360096694273 Trucking revenue was $700B in 2017. There's a lot of room to grow.

Meanwhile, Toyota and Honda sell 10 as many cars to the vast majority of people who will never be able to afford Teslas, and the cars work long-term. https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2019-u-s-auto-sales-figures-by... https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability-owner-satisf... > When the Model 3 first came out in 2017, Consumer Reports gave it an average predicted reliability score based on the survey results at the…

Ford’s autobiography is good. One thing I learned from it is that the trajectory of Ford matched Tesla’s.

Ford started out making cars for the high end. No one wanted cars until they could win races. Then everybody wanted cars.

Tesla is a luxury brand for now. Will it be in a decade? I wouldn’t take that bet.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#220

Post by [deleted] »

gonehome wrote: post #135
stephencanon wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Also, Musk is right: no one else has even come close to matching the 2012 Model S. Tesla's lead is starting to look unassailable (in the medium term). This is kinda sorta true, if you ignore non-performance factors, but also no one actually needs what Model S provides. In the classic setup for disruption Tesla isn't the disruptor, it's the established "high quality use" getting disrupted. It is not very unreasonabl…

This still sounds like the iPhone to me. A lot of other competitors will make android devices that are similar and eventually get a large market share, but the iPhone still dominates the higher end with better margins.

[deleted]
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