The valuation started climbing the second half of the year after the good production and sales numbers were published. But it had already plateaud, then the China megafactory presentation happened and the little dance that Elon made, seemed to help grab some attention there.
This is enterely my (completely ignorant) guess, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least, if most of the recent shares buyers were chinese.
Is there any way to look were the buy orders are coming from?
Tesla races past $100B in market valuation
201–210 of 360 posts
Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation
#202Earlier quoted context omitted.
Market cap is expected value of the sum of all discounted future earnings. So to be worth $100B, they have to earn that amount in future money eventually . Not within the next few years.
That’s true, but the amount of discounting goes up with the years, in the limit to 100%. If I borrow $100B and promise to return it in 50 years time, you likely would want $200B back, even if you were 100% sure I would pay it back.
Not necessarily! German government debts, even the long 10 year ones, have ventured into negative interest area.
Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation
#203Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is there any hard data showing that someone significant amount of short selling is caused by speculation and it's not hedging? Short selling is used used as a hedge against downside risk of a long position. It's reasonable strategy for big investors who have huge stake on Tesla to short sell to manage the risk. >A "short sell against the box" is also known as "shorting against the box." Sellers use this technique whe…
Short selling, by definition, means you don’t own the stock when you sell it. Investors with huge stakes in Tesla would just sell, not short sell. Buying a put option would be how big investors manage downside risk, or possibly selling covered calls.
Short selling against stock you own is
called short sell against the box.
>A "short sell against the box" is also known as "shorting against the box." Sellers use this technique when they do not actually want to close out their position on a stock. The strategy is generally used by investors who believe the stock is due for a fall in price, but do not wish to sell because they believe the fall is temporary and the stock will rebound quickly.
Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation
#204I am ready for an electric vehicle - but I can't get over how much I dislike the interior of the Model 3 and Y. I hate the single-giant-touchscreen interface they have settled on. I get it, it's cheap for them to produce and it looks 'futuristic.' I firmly believe physical knobs and buttons are better for most things in a car. The Model S and Model X are better, but they're pretty much out of my price range.
I also want a proper SUV/truck - the Model X/Y don't cut it, and don't get me started on the cybertruck...
Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation
#205Earlier quoted context omitted.
Their charging infrastructure is pretty good lock in, especially if you install one of their chargers in your house.
Once your house is wired for the charger, how hard/expensive is it really to swap it for a different one?
If you can do basic electrical wiring, you may still need to get a permit and have the change inspected. What exactly is needed is highly jurisdiction dependent.
If you are not handy, it requires hiring an electrician to make the change (~$100-500)
Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation
#206Earlier quoted context omitted.
This still sounds like the iPhone to me. A lot of other competitors will make android devices that are similar and eventually get a large market share, but the iPhone still dominates the higher end with better margins.
Indeed... its already happened with the Bolt. It beats the Model 3 on several objective practicality metrics. It is also slower and perceived as less attractive. Due to poor marketing, I suspect most perceive it to be much slower, rather than just somewhat slower. It sells really poorly. Most of these other competitors are going to run into the same fate for years.
Chevys reputation is dogshit and compared against Tesla for quality innovation/brand the contrast is night and day.
They also ran those absurd car commercials for the last decade or so about "real people, not actors" which were spoofed so well on YouTube that I think they actually damaged their brand.
Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation
#207Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is there any hard data showing that someone significant amount of short selling is caused by speculation and it's not hedging? Short selling is used used as a hedge against downside risk of a long position. It's reasonable strategy for big investors who have huge stake on Tesla to short sell to manage the risk. >A "short sell against the box" is also known as "shorting against the box." Sellers use this technique whe…
Short selling is used used as a hedge against downside risk of a long position Not accurate, assuming you're talking about the same stock. Shorting a stock is precisely equivalent to selling it, and your brokerage will always net them out. Perhaps you're thinking of OTM put options?
>A "short sell against the box" is also known as "shorting against the box." Sellers use this technique when they do not actually want to close out their position on a stock. The strategy is generally used by investors who believe the stock is due for a fall in price, but do not wish to sell because they believe the fall is temporary and the stock will rebound quickly.
Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation
#208Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Telsa apps/games This is the only thing that remotely justifies their current valuation. If you expect them to crush it in China + monetize their install base via creating an app platform for 3rd party apps + get to self-driving. People forget that EVs are going to likely be on the road a lot longer than ICEVs, due to lower wear-and-tear. Past battery capacity degradation, there isn't much to break.
App stores are lucrative and all, but there's just not that many cars compared to iPhones / Android phones to sell apps to.
I'd say the counterargument would be: what other channel can guarantee attention while a person is moving around?
Seems to map fairly well to monetization, which is essentially what drove mobile.
Ad targeting when you break a geofence? $$$
Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation
#209I shorted NASDAQ today because of these jokers
Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation
#210I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…
Everyone seems to miss the biggest reason why Tesla has won and the other companies won't be able to catch them. The dealer network. The Nissan Leaf came out and was way ahead of everyone but nobody bought it because they couldn't find it. The dealers would hide the car in the back and avoid showing it to you. There was no incentive for them to get you in a Nissan Leaf because they would make profits, negligible ones…
The only competitors are going to be the new car companies because they will adopt the same model Tesla has where they own their own dealerships.
The general form of your argument is correct, however existing automobile companies aren't all wedded to their dealer networks. Volvo (which is now owned by Geely in China) took their Polestar performance brand and launched an entire automobile brand a few years ago.
They now have a Polestar 1 performance hybrid coupe, and are taking orders for their Polestar 2 small sedan that will compete with the Tesla Model 3.
And when I say, "taking orders," I mean over the web. You cannot buy or lease a Polestar automobile in a Volvo dealership.
I think Tesla has a lot of technical advantages that throw up barriers to competition from existing manufacturers, and there is no doubt that from a management perspective, these companies are their own worse enemy.
But the dealer network thing I think is a much weaker moat than it appears at first glance. I think it's a lot easier for an existing company to sell cars direct--possibly under a new marque--than it may seem.
There are problems of institutional inertia and lobbying and so on to overcome, but for some manufacturers, like Volvo, selling cars without a dealership just happened, without fanfare.
Are they a "new car company?" I don't think it matters that the cars they sell online are called "Polestar," and the ones in their dealership are called "Volvo."