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Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

reuters.com

151–160 of 360 posts

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Also, Musk is right: no one else has even come close to matching the 2012 Model S. Tesla's lead is starting to look unassailable (in the medium term). This is kinda sorta true, if you ignore non-performance factors, but also no one actually needs what Model S provides. In the classic setup for disruption Tesla isn't the disruptor, it's the established "high quality use" getting disrupted. It is not very unreasonabl…

This still sounds like the iPhone to me. A lot of other competitors will make android devices that are similar and eventually get a large market share, but the iPhone still dominates the higher end with better margins.

Absolutely.

But if we assume that, the question for investors is "will it dominate the high end with better margins like iPhone does, or will it dominate the high end with better margins like Porsche does?" Only one of those outcomes justifies a $100B valuation.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#152
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing Tesla doesn’t have is the lock in that Apple has. If you are using iPhoto, iWatch and iMessage, switching to another manufacturer is hugely disruptive. I totally agree that Tesla’s software chops are light years ahead.

That's a good point, though this may still happen between superchargers and Telsa apps/games - which could leverage your historical driving data.

> Telsa apps/games

This is the only thing that remotely justifies their current valuation.

If you expect them to crush it in China + monetize their install base via creating an app platform for 3rd party apps + get to self-driving.

People forget that EVs are going to likely be on the road a lot longer than ICEVs, due to lower wear-and-tear. Past battery capacity degradation, there isn't much to break.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#153
post #99

I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…

As someone who has purchased and owned multiple luxury European vehicles (mainly BMW and Mercedes) for the past 20+ years, for the first time I'm seriously considering switching over to Teslas when I replace my current vehicles. From my perspective, Tesla has now gained long-term credibility , so we may well be on the cusp of seeing much broader adoption by a mass of non-early adopters, i.e., people like me, who eval…

Our household came from driving BMWs, MBenz and Lexus cars/SUVs. Now we are an all Tesla household. The gas and maintenance savings are huge benefits.

The Tesla Reddit forums is also filled with many owners who share the same sentiment.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The important thing Tesla doesn't have that Apple does have is a 70% gross margin.

Where'd you get that number from? The sources I can find say Apple's gross margin is a bit under 40%. (Tesla's by comparison hovers around 20%.)

The gross margin for hardware is calculated as revenue minus COGS - literally the parts, assembly, packaging, and distribution. Software is considered an R&D expense.

A 30% COGS is a benchmark for most hardware products and how much you can invest in software depends on how expensive your product is and how many you sell. Since Apple sells a lot at a premium price point, they've got a lot more room in their budget for software R&D. Capital equipment like cars, machinery, power plants, etc are a whole different beast however.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With each car they get a lifetime of service revenue, mostly without competition. They expand their network effect, their supercharger footprint, and their technology lead as they maintain momentum. Cybertruck is poised to be a giant success, reaching into new markets outside of traditional EV buyers and into rural and suburban light trucks, the highest margin section of auto sales. Finally, its prominence attracts u…

I really don’t like the “well if you feel strongly why don’t you short” argument. I think it is insane that Tesla is worth so much. But shorting stocks is not part of the asset allocation that meets my long term goals and needs. I can certainly believe something without wanting to bet on it.

I'd add shorting is expensive (borrowing fees or volatility premium on options) and more complex (margin/option approval etc). Plus the old adage that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#156
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since they want to be their own insurance company it seems like it could be a valuable thing to have when pricing out a policy.

That’s genius. Create a risk profile for each identifiable vehicle.

yeah but the policy is sold to the driver not the car. You need a risk profile of the driver.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#157
post #35

The biggest advantage they have is their supercharging network. Every manufacturer is focusing on ADAS and electric cars but no one is focusing on the network. That is their biggest advantage and the only reason to buy a Tesla, granted their cars are great but without the network it’s just an expensive commute car.

Any manufacturer can tap into those, the charging patents were all released for free. The last thing the EV market needs is the balkanization of charger networks; it's all the same electricity.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#158
post #115
post #9

So about the same as Ford, GM and FiatChrysler combined. Crazy times. Wow even Uber market cap is higher than each of those three. Feels like 1999.

Elon Musk knows a thing or two about 1999. That's when he received $22 million for CitySearch. Some HTML stitched together with Perl scripts. At least Tesla is a real thing.

yeah, it's not like they came up with the first vector-based mapping and door-to-door directions or anything like that. Just some simple HTML stitched together /s

Also, get your facts straight. Citysearch and Zip2 are not the same company.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#159
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is the Apple of the auto industry. They are getting stellar customer satisfaction ratings, which is translating into brand loyalty[1]. They've built an ecosystem between their above-average EV hardware, industry-leading software (with frequent improvements), and a top-notch charging network. I can see some automakers matching them on hardware, but they have a huge lead in software. Traditional car manufacturers…

I've read somewhere that Cadillac's Super Cruise is vastly superior compared to Tesla's autopilot. I'm not sure the software gap is as wide as you think.

That is a fair point. Mobileye will offer competitive products to all makes at reasonable prices in the very near future. I don't think Autopilot will be a major differentiator for long.
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