Tesla races past $100B in market valuation • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#121

Post by Spivak » Wed, Jan 22, 2020, 5:07 PM UTC

xedeon wrote: post #91

7777fps wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't the "charging network" a thing that shouldn't be vendor locked? Imagine if every petrol pump was tied to specific makes of cars? Any current vendor lock-in of charging is surely at risk at being legislated away, by insisting that EV charging is done through a standard port like refueling petrol/diesel vehicles. If governments were serious about electric vehicles as a way of improving air quality they would legi…

Tesla has consistently said the Supercharger Network is open for any manufacturer to adapt. " "Tesla is aware of these problems. CEO Elon Musk first floated the idea of sharing its Supercharger network in 2015, but with only a few hundred Superchargers operating at the time, the proposals did not gain any momentum." "Tesla’s chief technology officer JB Straubel has strongly suggested that plans are now underway. He s…

I feel like you're painting the second option as bad when it's exactly the same flow as buying gas. Nothing about paying for electricity needs an account and more than buying gas does. I agree that Tesla's system is pretty slick but the alternative isn't bad.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#122

Post by rolltiide » Wed, Jan 22, 2020, 5:07 PM UTC

nerdkid93 wrote: post #2

I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…

Short squeeze

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#123

Post by ccheney » Wed, Jan 22, 2020, 5:07 PM UTC

0xB31B1B wrote: post #41

rb808 wrote: post #9

So about the same as Ford, GM and FiatChrysler combined. Crazy times. Wow even Uber market cap is higher than each of those three. Feels like 1999.

WRT Uber, market seems to value recurring revenue streams higher than non recurring streams (ie average customer buys a new car every 7 years, likely from different manufacturers, but an Uber customer uses the product a few times per month). Auto makers could be valued more highly if they can sell subscriptions to something.

Tesla recently started billing $10/mo for internet service[1] (might be at a break-even price). They've also started to release in-app DLC ($2k) that makes your car accelerate quicker[2]

[1] https://www.tesla.com/support/connectivity

[2] https://electrek.co/2019/12/18/tesla-acceleration-boost-upgr...

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#124

Post by gazumping » Wed, Jan 22, 2020, 5:07 PM UTC

ec109685 wrote: post #82

donogh wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is the Apple of the auto industry. They are getting stellar customer satisfaction ratings, which is translating into brand loyalty[1]. They've built an ecosystem between their above-average EV hardware, industry-leading software (with frequent improvements), and a top-notch charging network. I can see some automakers matching them on hardware, but they have a huge lead in software. Traditional car manufacturers…

One thing Tesla doesn’t have is the lock in that Apple has. If you are using iPhoto, iWatch and iMessage, switching to another manufacturer is hugely disruptive. I totally agree that Tesla’s software chops are light years ahead.

Would Tesla's supercharger charging network fill that role of "lock-in"?

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#125

Post by chasd00 » Wed, Jan 22, 2020, 5:08 PM UTC

xenospn wrote: post #50

fjabre wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk is a disrupter and he is disrupting this industry turning it on its head. We've been stuck in the same boring recycled car designs and concepts for decades and here comes Elon with the promise of self driving flying cars on their way to Mars with SpaceX in the background making incredible strides forward everyday. To be honest I think this valuation is too low. Elon continues to eat the competition's lunch on a…

Correct me if I'm wrong (and I've been a Tesla fan for years, and invested back when they first IPOd), but isn't the Porsche Taycan superior to the Model S in every way (except for a slightly shorter range)? If Porsche can "catch up" and leapfrog the Model S in just their first iteration, I'm pretty sure Tesla's growth is going to slow down significantly going forward.

Google says the Porsche costs about $25k more, so there's that.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#126

Post by 40acres » Wed, Jan 22, 2020, 5:08 PM UTC

nerdkid93 wrote: post #2

I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…

I'm surprised at this sentiment. The other major auto makers have had at least 5 years now to show what they can do in regards to developing EVs and the results are not good.

Nissan's leaf is a solid car but with the recent departure of Ghosn the future is in doubt. Many of the American auto makers are still focused on squeezing as much as they can from SUVs and don't inspire confidence that they will be able to produce a quality vehicle to threaten Tesla's potential customer base.

The limited (read luxury) SKUs, word of mouth, and differentiated software give Tesla a distinct advantage over traditional autos. In the past it was viable to worry about execution but with the new gigafactory and China expansion underway , coupled with recent sales figures it's difficult to bet against them.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#127

Post by trhway » Wed, Jan 22, 2020, 5:08 PM UTC

matthewdgreen wrote: post #90

trhway wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla ARR (edit as it seems to get some people confused: "Annualized Run Rate") is something like $25B/year. That for tech company easily makes for $250B+ valuation. (and yes i do own some) >than Volkswagen those dinosaurs are still not getting it. They continue to stay car companies instead of becoming tech companies. Paradigm shift must be very well familiar to tech people here at HN.

The hallmark of a "tech" company, and the reason it can have such huge valuations, is that they don't do silly and expensive things like build relatively low-margin physical objects. Tesla has not demonstrated its plans beyond that yet.

Did you just dismissed Apple (and other hardware companies) as a tech company?

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#128

Post by rvz » Wed, Jan 22, 2020, 5:08 PM UTC

Given that they previously had a surprise profit in the last quarter, there is also a degree of risk in what happens in the next quarter as they have been unprofitable for years despite huge revenues.

Normally, I would stay away from throwing money at anything that is at an all time high (ATH) and would sell now or close to less than the ATH price at this point before it starts to dive with a wave of sellers.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#129

Post by shmerl » Wed, Jan 22, 2020, 5:08 PM UTC

shyn3 wrote: post #111

nerdkid93 wrote: post #2

I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…

Everyone seems to miss the biggest reason why Tesla has won and the other companies won't be able to catch them. The dealer network. The Nissan Leaf came out and was way ahead of everyone but nobody bought it because they couldn't find it. The dealers would hide the car in the back and avoid showing it to you. There was no incentive for them to get you in a Nissan Leaf because they would make profits, negligible ones…

> It's why the current Auto companies and dealers are lobbying to not allow Tesla to own their own dealership.

More like they simply want to remain the parasitic middleman. In practice, no one needs dealerships to begin with these days. They fight through corruption, because they are already obsolete.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#130

Post by nouveaux » Wed, Jan 22, 2020, 5:09 PM UTC

shakopeeant wrote: post #97

sillysaurusx wrote: post #52

If you're wondering what could possibly justify $100B, think in terms of "What if Tesla put all the other car companies out of business?" This isn't as unlikely as it seems: https://twitter.com/whyvert/status/1219288360096694273 Trucking revenue was $700B in 2017. There's a lot of room to grow.

"This isn't as unlikely as it seems" In what fantasy world do you live in?

Parent cited a graph that demonstrates a lot of potential. Do you care to make an argument and cite any sources?