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First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

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Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#101

Post by TuringNYC »

duncanawoods wrote: post #96
munificent wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Spanish Flu was almost exactly 100 years ago. Recent enough that we think of it as being in modern times with relatively modern medicine and hospitals. My grandmother lived through it, so this isn't the distant past. Current estimates are that it killed up to 100,000,000 million people, as many as the black plague. We have much better medicine now, thankfully. But we also live in a much more deeply connected worl…

It's curious how little cultural impact it has compared to the world wars or Black Plague despite the death-toll. I've never seen a TV series or film about it or any art, songs or phrases. There is no iconic photograph that comes to mind. It's just a minor footnote to WW1. I don't know if it's wartime censorship or just overshadowed but it's really quite odd.

First thing that comes to mind is the scaled impact as a % of global population. The population was so much smaller during the Black Plague that it was comparably a bigger event.

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#103

Post by redis_mlc »

kadoban wrote: post #2

Anyone have a sober perspective of how bad this is likely to get? Is this comparable to a bad but forgetten-by-the-next-year flu strain? To SARS? To the Spanish Flu?

SARS was about as lucky as you can get without pandemic.

With the availability of international airline travel, there's no limit to how far and fast a disease can travel now.

Toronto had a big SARS scare when one of the patients who was told to quarantine himself instead went to work ...

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#104

Post by cguess »

sib wrote: post #72
munificent wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Spanish Flu was almost exactly 100 years ago. Recent enough that we think of it as being in modern times with relatively modern medicine and hospitals. My grandmother lived through it, so this isn't the distant past. Current estimates are that it killed up to 100,000,000 million people, as many as the black plague. We have much better medicine now, thankfully. But we also live in a much more deeply connected worl…

Great book about this (and, more broadly, the rise of medicine as a scientific endeavor): https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0143036491/

Seconded: I just finished this last week, really great historical piece, doesn't leave much out.

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#106

Post by btilly »

koheripbal wrote: post #60
glofish wrote: post #17

I feel like it has been so long since the swine flu, bird flu, H1N1 flu, and other flu scares that we are due for one. Like the recessions the flu scares are cyclical.

Recessions happen somewhat cyclically because imbalances build up in the economy that ultimately cause some sort of dislocation. The same is not true in virology. There is no "pent up" mechanism that needs to periodically release an outbreak. It is entirely random and in these types of outbreaks simply becomes more likely when many animal species exist in close proximity, allowing virus cross-over. It's no coincidenc…

Recessions happen somewhat cyclically because imbalances build up in the economy that ultimately cause some sort of dislocation.

Actually recessions seem to be driven by random events. Our brains impose a cyclic explanation on what is actually a stochastic process.

See https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/research-and-data/pu... for more.

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#107

Post by NetBeck »

munificent wrote: post #63
glofish wrote: post #17

I feel like it has been so long since the swine flu, bird flu, H1N1 flu, and other flu scares that we are due for one. Like the recessions the flu scares are cyclical.

The Spanish Flu was almost exactly 100 years ago. Recent enough that we think of it as being in modern times with relatively modern medicine and hospitals. My grandmother lived through it, so this isn't the distant past. Current estimates are that it killed up to 100,000,000 million people, as many as the black plague. We have much better medicine now, thankfully. But we also live in a much more deeply connected worl…

The Spanish Flu also influenced the design of old radiator heating systems.

"The Spanish influenza epidemic, which took place during the winter of 1918–19, had a dramatic effect on the way heating engineers sized radiators," explains Dan Holohan, author of several books on steam heat and founder of HeatingHelp.com. "Central heating was relatively new then and the world had never seen anything as horrible as the Spanish flu, which caused an estimated 50 million deaths. Because the flu was airborne, the Board of Health started a campaign the following year that urged (more like demanded) people to keep their windows open so fresh air could enter the rooms."[1]

[1] https://www.citylab.com/life/2014/02/our-indispensible-guide...

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#108

Post by exposay »

China has been covering it up for 2 months. Minimal action was taken to prevent the disease from spreading and they kept denying until a couple days ago when it was no longer possible to cover it up because it is spreading to neighboring countries who have been complaining for the whole time. Regional/local governments have been trying to downplay it because it makes them "look bad". It is essentially a replay of SARS. Only admit and take action when it's too late.

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#109

Post by anonuser123456 »

Enginerrrd wrote: post #51
geggam wrote: post #36

As someone who takes regular flights on planes I find this disturbing.

Wearing an N95 mask and washing your hands properly will prevent the overwhelming majority of transmission. Could someone still sneeze in your eye? Sure. Could you wear your mask improperly because you haven't been fit tested, yeah. But you sure can reduce your risk a lot.

>Wearing an N95 mask and washing your hands properly will prevent the overwhelming majority of transmission.

My understanding is that there is no evidence wearing an N95 mask reduces transmission to the person wearing it. It prevents transmission from the that person to others.

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#110

Post by refurb »

notadoc wrote: post #78
munificent wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Spanish Flu was almost exactly 100 years ago. Recent enough that we think of it as being in modern times with relatively modern medicine and hospitals. My grandmother lived through it, so this isn't the distant past. Current estimates are that it killed up to 100,000,000 million people, as many as the black plague. We have much better medicine now, thankfully. But we also live in a much more deeply connected worl…

> We have much better medicine now, thankfully. Do we? Against a deadly and virulent flu virus causing viral pneumonia? Not really without development of a highly effective vaccine. You have better life support, but that's about it. Something like ECMO is extremely invasive and limited to maybe a few per ICU.

We have anti-virals now, when back then we didn't.

Not sure if they'd actually work on these strains, but it's something.

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