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How Germany is able to run the world’s second largest export economy

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Re: How Germany is able to run the world’s second largest export economy

#171

Post by magduf »

drocer88 wrote: post #19
ginko wrote: post #3

I wonder how that plot would look like if they separated individual US states and also considered trade between them. I'd guess the big three (California, Texas, New York) would dominate quite a bit there as well.

New York, big three? Florida passed New York in population in 2014: https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/breaking-news/os-florid... . Census figures released Tuesday show Florida passed New York as the nation's third largest state with an estimated population of 19.9 million. New York, now fourth, has 19.7 million.

Florida may have a larger population, but they're not nearly as productive, probably because FL is a popular place for retirees to move to. Retired people don't contribute much to GDP.

Re: How Germany is able to run the world’s second largest export economy

#173

Post by helij »

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #123
arethuza wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A few years back I worked for a large engineering services company (that nobody has ever heard of) and one of the senior managers from Germany described the quality of Mercedes-Benz cars as a "national disgrace" - he was genuinely upset about it.

The original owners keep them for 5 years max. Nothing has to last longer than that.

Exactly. I change cars every three years now. The last one I changed after 2 years. I really don't care how reliable they are after 5 years as long as they are comfortable, frugal and safe during my ownership. Technology today just moves too fast to see myself driving 50+ miles a day in a 5+ years old car.

Re: How Germany is able to run the world’s second largest export economy

#174

Post by eli_gottlieb »

allendoerfer wrote: post #125
pvaldes wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If by productive means lying about car emissions to cheat authorities, yeah, Wolkswagen and Audi and whatever are really efficient cars made by really productive german workers. Maybe we could move this conversation to adult zone and non-cartoonist levels beyond "spanish cheap drunk workers living in the beach" and "german saint teetotalers workers"? Thinking that a spanish engineer is less educated than a german eng…

Productivity can be measured for example by GDP per hours worked, and Germany's productivy is very clearly above Spain's. These are facts, which do not demean Spanish engineers, so no need to be defensive here. You are just taking one incident and using it to brush over economic facts.

> Productivity can be measured for example by GDP per hours worked, and Germany's productivy is very clearly above Spain's.

Productivity per hour measures capital investment and labor skill within the same quantity.

Re: How Germany is able to run the world’s second largest export economy

#175

Post by martin_a »

ergothus wrote: post #147
zozbot234 wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope, tradable goods don't just become "more expensive" because of currency shifts. The prices of tradables are set in a global market and tied together by cross-trading (arbitrage) considerations. What happens when supplying a desirable product is that the industry seeks to expand and that might increase costs overall. The Dutch Disease is an extreme version of this, in which having a single dominating industry sect…

My economics is weak, can you break this down for me a bit? If I'm selling widgets for $10 (USD), and Narnia wants to buy them at 2 Narnian gold pieces(gp) per USD, it would cost them 20gp each. If the USD "improves", such that it is now 4 gp:$1, my widgets would be 40gp each, making my goods "more expensive" to foreign countries like Narnia. Assuming you're correct, I have at least one flawed understanding above (en…

The important question is: Does Narnia have the money, or is it willing to spend, double the amount on your product? Maybe they will just buy half, because their budget is fixed. That's the point you are missing.

Re: How Germany is able to run the world’s second largest export economy

#176

Post by olivermarks »

Luc wrote: post #164
olivermarks wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again, you are misrepresenting. I am a strong believer in free speech. I don't know if it was you that flagged the post but I would much prefer to see a counter argument and rebuttal from you. Instead we get a casual and patronizing comment. Hacker News is usually great for reasoned argument and debate. It's sad to see this sort of glib fly by behaviour

I'm rolling my eyes. That is all the rebuttal this needs. Then people can go read https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Replacement if they really wish to.

If you think rolling your eyes and posting links to wikipedia articles about white nationalist far-right conspiracy theories is a rebuttal there is little hope for you. Of course there are nationalist and religious fanatics the world over. That will never change. The UK just overwhelmingly voted again to leave the EU but people like you can't see the wood for the trees. It is homogenization and globalization communities dislike, along with injection of people from other cultures traumatized by war and economic hardship who are unable to integrate. If quality of life and security diminishes economic resentments,crime, hostility and in some cases racism reappear and flourish. Southern Sweden is an excellent example of this currently.

Re: How Germany is able to run the world’s second largest export economy

#177

Post by helij »

reaperducer wrote: post #151
varjag wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps a bigger distortion was everyone else deciding to become "value-add" over outsourced production. Only so much room for beancounters.

Especially in certain product lines. A relative uses a particular medial device with parts that wear out. She purchases the regular replacement bits off Amazon which are made in China and only last 30 to 60 days. When she can afford it, she buys from the OEM's online store which has parts that are made in Germany or The Netherlands. They fit better, work better, and last up to six months. The difference is the Chines…

I don't get this. Is there really so little room in her budget for her to do this? It doesn't make sense to me.

Re: How Germany is able to run the world’s second largest export economy

#178

Post by jl2718 »

What does this game look like with a fixed money supply and no trade or movement restrictions? My naive Econ 101 guess is that wealthier nations would export more, not less, and higher value goods. Why does inflation work to produce a trade surplus? It seems that the only reason is decreasing internally-sourced costs like labor, but this just props up obsolete value chains instead of promoting capital innovation. Does this work long-term? Also, in a game with one inflator, how does that turn everybody else into a leisure services economy without a whole bunch of inflationary distributive spending on their part as well? It would seem that the fixed-supply result would look like deflation plus capital excess, which is perfect for investment in new industries. It seems to me that maybe Germany is in roughly this situation whereas the US/Japan/etc can manage money supply according to political will, so a larger portion of productivity is diverted to leisure services and structural inefficiency. Also, is Chinese currency manipulation an economic success story? What would we see with a free market fixed currency in China?

Re: How Germany is able to run the world’s second largest export economy

#179

Post by selimthegrim »

gharding wrote: post #140
olivermarks wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany is a very new country (1871) and still comprised of markedly different regions. the French German axis has increasingly dominated the EU and driven a strong export culture. As globalization has hit a plateau Germany are now in a tricky position. Many are loathe to admit it but the 'desirable products' Germany produces have a very distinctive Germanic flavor which people identify strongly with the idea of Germ…

I totally agree with you, even though what we are all heading towards is nothing but the total eradication of actual diversity, especially in Europe, pretty much on the American model that totally destroyed all unique characters of the American people of the various American states over the last 70+ years. But the "Germany is a very new country" trope/propaganda is not accurate, as is rather easily identified by simp…

Sitting here and writing this from Louisiana I _strongly_ beg to differ with your notion of American homogenization.

Re: How Germany is able to run the world’s second largest export economy

#180

Post by Barrin92 »

ed_balls wrote: post #52

Good article, but the model is too simple. UK used to produce more cars than Germany, but it's the opposite now. Why? They haven't shared the same currency. German cars were better. > And it means those same workers in Spain are less equipped to compete for Manufacturing jobs — because Elon Musk has to pay them in German Euros instead of cheap Spanish Peseta. If you’ve got to pay everyone in German Euros, you might a…

Also a lot of the industrial capacity in Germany is very obviously significantly older than the Euro. In fact the strength/weakness of the currency is not one-sided. A stronger currency (like the Deutsche Mark before the Euro) incentivized German firms to innovate rapidly to stay competitive even in the face of a more valuable currency, and that is something that can also be seen in the labour productivity statistics. German workers are about 30% more productive than their peers in the UK.

German exports are also not particularly cost-sensitive because so many hidden champions in Germany deliver specialised industrial goods that are hard to replace (as the saying goes Germany makes "the thing that goes into the thing that goes into the thing"), which reduces the impact of currencly fluctuations.

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