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Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

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Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#761

Post by pas »

spookthesunset wrote: post #554
ogre_codes wrote: post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big reasons I want a self driving car is because I want to eliminate the boring drudgery and make the routine parts of driving safer. If I have to drive the last 1% myself, it's not a big deal. I suspect this is how most people feel. I haven't done the math, but time spent on forest service roads, wedding parking lots, and boarding ferries is quite low overall. And the idea of driving in those instances doesn't b…

> If I have to drive the last 1% myself, it's not a big deal. I suspect this is how most people feel. Which is all well and good until you realize a few things: 1) that “last 1%” happens every trip at any time. You will always encounter an edge case the machine cannot handle. Period. 2) as a result you have to always pay attention in order to immediately take over 3) you can’t because you (the royal you) are three sh…

The safe disengage problem is solvable to match human level outcomes. Unexpected event? Slow down, avoid obstacles, flashing lights, slowly go to a spot that's ok-ish for parking.

Yes there can be a big hole in the road anytime, the AI has to watch the vehicle in front of it, if no such vehicle then it should chose a speed that let's it evaluate road conditions for the given weather/visibility.

Vehicle coming into our lane? The AI has to match human level maneuvering to evade the incoming car. It already has much better chance given it won't panic, will be always fully alert, and will be as accurate and precise as it can.

So the big categories are sudden road/environment changes (tree falls on road, hail, mudslide, earthquake damages road, animal crosses road), other vehicles, and pedestrians/cyclists/etc.

All are manageable with inferences from the environment (weather and roadside context determine visibility and how much space there is for maneuvering, how likely are unexpected crossings - eg. deer, kids) and surrounding traffic.

Are these hard? Sure, but none require human level cognitive reasoning.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#762

Post by rmtech »

l0b0 wrote: post #561
rmtech wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trains kind of suck though. I used them a lot in the UK because I didn't have a car. The UK has an OK train network. The problem with trains is that they are very, very inconvenient for most journeys. Sunday evening? forget it. After 11pm? Nope. Journey that runs perpendicular to the local line to London? Lol, enjoy a 5 hour journey to go 100 miles. Want to take cargo like a new washing machine? Lol. Want to go somew…

No, trains in the UK are not "OK", they are crap compared to most of Western Europe. Fewer trains and more cancellations than any other country I've ever used trains in, stupid connections and pricing structure, all because of privatization. Look to Switzerland for the best train network in Europe. Reliability is top notch, there's only one company to deal with, and prices are reasonable for the income level.

They're not as good as the best, but they're a lot better than the worst countries for trains. The train network is also fairly thorough in its coverage of the country. I think it's a good representative example (not best, not worst).

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#763

Post by IshKebab »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #175
colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

We can on motorways, which is where I think driverless technology will actually start - motorways are simpler environments than most roads, and have convenient service stations along them.

Driverless lorries that go from one service station to another will be the first fully autonomous vehicles I think.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#764

Post by pas »

kortex wrote: post #407
rdiddly wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if I told you I could offer you a 99% automated intercity solution? That's right, a solution where 99% of the people involved have no obligation whatsoever to engage with piloting the vehicle... EVER! Where the vehicle just sort of seems to... drive itself? Is this some futuristic sci-fi fantasy? Well hold onto your hat, because the future is NOW! Behold! https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7177/6894934663_0619c8bea3.…

Albany is a middlin' sized city. Taking the train to NYC is like, still a nontrivial event. Also passenger rail has to sidestep freight on this corridor. Megabus is a bit better experience overall but also kinda meh. On top of that, I personally (and know many agree) HATE the stress of keeping track of times, scheduling around infrequent departures, logistics to/from stations, etc. > Bonus: the vehicle can be resized…

Waiting 30 minutes while a new carriage is attached still beats sitting in a traffic jam. At least for me.

I gladly pick rail over car for good lines, because it's stress free. Get to the station in time (with public transportation it's quite deterministic, subways and trams don't get into traffic jams, buses sometimes do).

Cars of course win when it comes to flexibility (late night getting to a small town address).

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#765

Post by pas »

lostlogin wrote: post #436
dmortin wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the taxi is soiled then the next passenger indicates this via the app. The taxi is sent for cleaning and the previous passenger is charged for the cleaning. Also, there will be cameras inside in case it has to be proven who made the car dirty. If people have to pay the cleaning bill they will be careful not to make a mess.

> If the taxi is soiled then the next passenger indicates this via the app So riders blame the mess on the previous passenger. Then the taxi company installs cameras. It’s all gross (and yes, I’m aware many taxis have cameras already).

Trade offs. Now we exploit humans, pay them quasi minimum wage, and we get the occasional rape story.

Self driving taxi will be a new possible way to get from A to B, and people will chose their own trade offs.

Probably human driven taxis will become the luxury eventually.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#766

Post by rmtech »

0xB31B1B wrote: post #359
rmtech wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trains kind of suck though. I used them a lot in the UK because I didn't have a car. The UK has an OK train network. The problem with trains is that they are very, very inconvenient for most journeys. Sunday evening? forget it. After 11pm? Nope. Journey that runs perpendicular to the local line to London? Lol, enjoy a 5 hour journey to go 100 miles. Want to take cargo like a new washing machine? Lol. Want to go somew…

1) trains go basically everywhere frequently in Japan, it’s very much a functioning rail network, they exist and kick ass. 2) a train doesn’t need to replace 100% of personal car trips to be useful. I’m sure you’re not transporting dishwashers or taking trips after 11 pm every day. Covering 90% of use cases is sufficient, and the other 10% can be handled by either renting a car or taking an Uber. 3) we can and should…

Look, from the point of view of a passenger, the best transport system goes:

- where you want,

- when you want,

- carrying what you want,

- as fast

- and as safely as possible,

- at the lowest cost possible.

Trains are weak on multiple axes here: they do not go where you want to go and they do not go when you want to go, and you cannot carry large amounts on them. They are also quite slow.

The only reason that anyone uses trains is because in dense urban areas like London, cars are even slower, and for intercity trips it is both slow and hard to park when you get to the destination city. There are perhaps some exceptions to this but they don't really exist in the West. Really fast intercity trains are a thing in China and Japan, but the UK has no trains that take you from A to B at an average speed greater than a fast car once you take waiting and stopping time into account. As far as I am aware the same applies to the US as well.

Trains do not cover 90% of use cases, they cover maybe 10%. In my opinion, trains are a technology that should be completely scrapped in favor of driverless minibus and driverless car networks. Modern electric & driverless vehicles with internet connectivity and global transport optimization like Uber would beat trains on every single axis.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#767

Post by aikinai »

zahrc wrote: post #317
dmix wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Riding trains is great, getting to the train station(s) in a busy city, worrying about the schedule and being in the right spot for the right train, etc, is not at all fun. But otherwise agreed a ton of this stuff could be solved with modern trains. But appeasing all of the special interest groups in between has made infrastructure development impossibly expensive or takes a decade. So we keep driving cars even long…

I know it’s practically impossible and sheer utopic but I dream of an never-ending Train going in a circle, kind of like a moving tunnel.

The main loop in Tokyo comes every two minutes; it’s as close as you can get practically get to a constantly moving tunnel.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#768

Post by darkerside »

jsolson wrote: post #392
darkerside wrote: post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When one of those black boxes malfunctions it gets taken off the road. When the AI malfunctions, are we going to shut down entire classes of vehicles until the problem is confirmed fixed? Not to mention that most software fixes cause other bugs...

In an extreme example I expect that's precisely what would happen. Consider what's currently unfolding around the 737 Max. In the automotive space there's a long history of serious flaws that resulted in loss of life, ranging from faulty airbag deployment systems to flawed designs for ignition systems. We have precedent for how we qualify and evaluate things for safety: test them across a variety of conditions, accum…

We've made a choice to allow people to kill each other in cars from time to time, but that's different from choosing to allow automated cars to kill anybody. Knowing human nature, I don't think the general public will accept double digit automated deaths without an outcry.

Shutting down a plane is completely different from taking an entire class of publicly owned vehicles off the road. People will be furious.

Yes, they will be furious about the deaths and the shutdown, both. Don't forget that people are made up of individuals.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#769

Post by darkerside »

toasterlovin wrote: post #376
darkerside wrote: post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When one of those black boxes malfunctions it gets taken off the road. When the AI malfunctions, are we going to shut down entire classes of vehicles until the problem is confirmed fixed? Not to mention that most software fixes cause other bugs...

At least the software is fixable. Other humans are not.

Humans are fixable in that they are held accountable. One person can be taken off the road if they are unfit to drive. (Revoke license, imprison, etc). Then the incident has become Someone's Fault, and society can move on.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#770

Post by john_minsk »

lrem wrote: post #718
funnybeam wrote: post #714

Earlier quoted context omitted.

”We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars” We have already done this, they are called railways. Some of them evening have self driving trains. To get self driving cars on roads you need a human level AI. Trying to get away with less intelligence by restricting the environment will never get to the point where it will be safe to have automated vehicles - you can’t prov…

"Human level AI" is a tricky wording. Sure, we may never get a program we would trust to serve in a jury, convince us about existence of God or just have a casual conversation with. But ask Go players how is that resistance to machines going. When I drive and there's a child walking on the sidewalk, I'm not analyzing the chances the child will jump onto the road. I'm just assuming the parents have succeeded at explai…

Or we can allow Google to have the same amount of accidents as regular drivers and not penalize them if they don't go out of certain margins. let's say if the vehicle has 1 accident on every 10m km travelled - google can go on. Sure, some people may die, but each accident will contribute to safety of the system. So called "Antifragile" property.

Then you give users of the service a choice: maps where service was very reliable, where some accidents happened or where not enough data was gathered i.e. there can be problems. Let users decide where they want to go and what level of risk they are willing to take.

Maybe we can have a device (smartphone?) that serves as marker for vehicles and helps them identify people/dogs/properties around them. If you ask me this can be done even now.

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