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Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

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Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#741

Post by CamperBob2 »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #175
colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

If subsurface radar imaging tech works out, it will fix the marking/signage problem nicely. Kind of disappointing not to hear more about that since the initial articles came out a couple of years ago.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#742

Post by iso947 »

michaelmrose wrote: post #688
pjkundert wrote: post #602

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, your family would be ok that your car sheared you off in a quirk unnecessary accident, so long as the overall stats were better than average? Non-ergotic stats are not comparable to ergotic (group) stats.

Given 100 individuals who would have died in everyday accidents all would prefer a 99% chance of survival. Given a population of a million all would prefer a 1 in a million chance of death under a semi to a 1 in 10k chance of being smeared in a more average fashion. Your argument is the same one used against seat belts with people advocating a strictly inferior survival strategy to prevent a rare misadventure.

That’s not how it works for humans though. “Other drivers are terrible. I am above average. Other drivers underride. I don’t”

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#743

Post by iso947 »

cpitman wrote: post #511
rkagerer wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Self driving trains would probably be easier. Aren't there already some airport shuttle trains and metro transit that's fully automated? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automated_train_syst...

FWIW, self driving trains are a very different problem. With self driving cars, the approach has been to use sensors on the vehicle and make autonomous decisions based on that input. This will never work for trains, because their stopping distances are so long that they cannot use a sensor to detect most oncoming issues. Self driving trains will require more coordination, with central dispatch to tell them when/where…

So how do drivers stop with long stopping distance?

They have signals to tell them “stop”, they have speed limits posted, they have route knowledge. All detectable by computers, even without changes. Fast trains have in cab signalling in any case.

They have no decision about where to go (signal box sets the points/switch track), they have no decision on when to go (signal goes green)

The only bit which may need human input is the “ok to depart” notification when all the doors are clear at a station.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#744

Post by close04 »

nradov wrote: post #539
close04 wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We may actually discover it’s cheaper or smarter to limit the scope of what self driving cars have to do by limiting their infrastructure. If cities become more pedestrian (cyclist, public transport) centric then some of the issues disappear. It would be a hell of a lot easier if you eliminate the complexities of navigating city traffic if most of it is gone or car traffic is completely separated from the rest. Eithe…

Where will existing cities find the budget and physical space for separating transportation modes?

If you do it in the correct order, first massively reducing car traffic and then separating it, the costs should be manageable over time. The point isn’t to do it all at once or overnight. This has the “side” effect of making cities a lot more human friendly even before doing anything to separate traffic while still reducing the complexity of navigating the city FSD.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#745

Post by Fnoord »

bpfrh wrote: post #273
einrealist wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am more fearful of trolls, tricking the technology. I doubt, that the software / hardware will have a common sense, like we humans have. Its this common sense that keeps us alive in unexpected scenarios, like when the paint on the road is missing.

I would argue that signing beacon messages with a PKI infrastructure would migate that issue.

Those beacons can be DoSed. Consider how Hong Kong protestors avoid the face recognition with laser pens.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#746

Post by wutbrodo »

pjkundert wrote: post #602
kens wrote: post #526

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People die all the time from driving under a semi-trailer. Look up "Underride". Over 200 people die every year from underride crashes in the US, so this isn't a mistake made only by autopilots. In other words, if we switched to self-driving cars and three people died every week when the autopilot drove into a semi-trailer, that would be a big improvement.

So, your family would be ok that your car sheared you off in a quirk unnecessary accident, so long as the overall stats were better than average? Non-ergotic stats are not comparable to ergotic (group) stats.

Do you not fly in airplanes? People make tradeoffs like this ALL the time. It's why the term "freak accident" even exists. People trade off freak accidents against convenience and quality of life, let alone a _higher_ rate of non-freak accidents.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#747

Post by himinlomax »

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

You just need to slow the cars down enough to increase safety drastically where the environment is not adapted.

Having cars move slowly but steadily does not make trips longer on average, at least in areas prone to traffic jams. Even though human drivers can find it frustrating, it's actually the opposite. If vehicles are consistently slow enough, you can even get rid of traffic lights and stop signs.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#748

Post by Fnoord »

WalterBright wrote: post #622
Animats wrote: post #620

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Volvo has proposed some rather simple infrastructure - driving magnetized nails into the pavement as a lane hint. This is mostly because they have to deal with heavy snow. It's not the sole, or even the primary guidance system, but it helps. They also suggest that snowplows could use the magnets for guidance. In snowy areas, it's common to use posts or flags or even overhead signs (in Hokkaido) to show where the road…

It's a cool idea, but nails rust, meaning a maintenance issue and outages. Is there a magnetic material that doesn't corrode?

Good point, such an issue could/would become obvious during a multi year trial.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#749

Post by tlear »

spookthesunset wrote: post #554
ogre_codes wrote: post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big reasons I want a self driving car is because I want to eliminate the boring drudgery and make the routine parts of driving safer. If I have to drive the last 1% myself, it's not a big deal. I suspect this is how most people feel. I haven't done the math, but time spent on forest service roads, wedding parking lots, and boarding ferries is quite low overall. And the idea of driving in those instances doesn't b…

> If I have to drive the last 1% myself, it's not a big deal. I suspect this is how most people feel. Which is all well and good until you realize a few things: 1) that “last 1%” happens every trip at any time. You will always encounter an edge case the machine cannot handle. Period. 2) as a result you have to always pay attention in order to immediately take over 3) you can’t because you (the royal you) are three sh…

Not necessarily.

Take Japanese highway system. It is well maintained, has “rest” stations where you can park car for free.

If you could get an app that can drive drunk salaryman, or not even drunk just tired from Tokyo interchange to closest rest area to wherever.. you will win. Nobody will buy a car without that who uses car for highway driving, period. It is a killer app. Get off work at 9pm Friday, get the car to the IC punch the destination, wake up at a rest are 20mins from Ski resort, Onden, parents house etc

Snow, taiphoon coming whatever. Park at closest rest area.

I am very pessimistic about cars without steering wheels. I am quite optimistic about cars that have ability to drive well marked roads. Here is a crazy thing Charge fairs for highways like Japan does, then maintain them.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#750

Post by akrymski »

ryukafalz wrote: post #381
akrymski wrote: post #371

Thank God! Self driving cars are not a solution to the world's problems. Better public transport is. Why can't we have self driving buses that replace trams? The level of AI needed for that is already there. As the population of major cities grows, we can't expect everyone riding around in their own car. Public transport is better for citizens and the environment. We need to be reducing the number of vehicles on the…

Not everyone lives in a major city though. Certainly self-driving cars are less efficient than buses for transport within a denser city, but go a few miles outside the city (at least in the US) and you’ll find yourself far from practical bus range. The situation may be different in Europe, but I think self-driving cars could be useful for navigating the sprawling American suburbs or less-dense cities. But yes, we sho…

There's no reason you can't have buses outside major cities - most EU countries do this fine. Self driving, self-recharging buses, that you can track and hail on-demand would be much more efficient than self driving cars. It means you may have to walk the last mile, but I can only see that as a benefit in a country where obesity is one of the biggest problems.

People with disabilities or those living in extremely remote areas are the only ones that should have their own cars.

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