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Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

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Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#651

Post by peteretep »

einrealist wrote: post #257
semi-extrinsic wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

I am more fearful of trolls, tricking the technology. I doubt, that the software / hardware will have a common sense, like we humans have. Its this common sense that keeps us alive in unexpected scenarios, like when the paint on the road is missing.

Trolls can also drop bricks on cars from overpasses, and I suspect fucking with road signs will rapidly carry the same taboo and punishment

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#652

Post by [deleted] »

_bxg1 wrote: post #648
colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

We could have them tomorrow if we could magically ban human drivers overnight. Humans are the only thing making it so hard. And the problem is that until we have 100% artificial general intelligence, that can introspect and understand the human psyche the way another human can, there will always be an intractable tail of cases where AI will fail. So it's like the IPv6 problem. If we could all coordinate at once, it w…

[deleted]

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#653

Post by hilbertseries »

ehsankia wrote: post #179
baybal2 wrote: post #109

I think he is the one and only sane C-level person in the industry, after hearing this. People claiming most of AI hype barely know what the "AI" people mention is. And people who go as far as drawing rosy pictures of human like general AI being your personal chauffeur are past ridiculous. The entire idea of human-like general AI for practical applications is like trying to make people using horses for transport in 2…

Isn't it a little silly to call someone "only sane C-level person" after one comment? Also, while claiming these innovations are only a few years way may be insane, saying they will never happen feels probably just as non-sense. History hasn't been on the side of such absolute claims. It will take time, but Waymo already has working 100% self-driving cars out in the wild. Yes it's in a small area, with perfect weathe…

https://www.cnet.com/news/alphabet-google-waymo-ceo-john-kra...

Waymo ceo made a similar statement.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#654

Post by stevenhuang »

hwillis wrote: post #135
thanhhaimai wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Traffic inductive loop counter costs a couple thousands to install. I don't have a source for the detailed cost breakdown, but I can imagine the majority of the cost is labor and digging up/filling the road since the sensor itself should be less than a thousand. Now imagine we're doing that 1000 times per mile, like what you're suggesting. Even if the device is free (both initial cost and maintenance) it's just too c…

> I don't have a source for the detailed cost breakdown, but I can imagine the majority of the cost is labor and digging up/filling the road since the sensor itself should be less than a thousand. Those are installed with a massive handtruck saw while cutting off a lane of traffic all day. It takes a half dozen people working on-and-off, doing different jobs. It takes jackhammers, high pressure water from a tanker tr…

Creating a local mesh network for cars to communicate is an idea I've had for a while. Something like an open hardware and software stack/protocol for future autonomous cars. It's an inevitable thing that must exist to realize the full potential of autonomous cars, all a question if I'd be the one to build it :).

Would be curious to know the current work in this area.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#655

Post by AgentOrange1234 »

spookthesunset wrote: post #566
dodobirdlord wrote: post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> or that they ever will be Eventually being better than humans seems like it's obviously going to happen. Not driving drunk, not getting distracted, and not sleeping at the wheel alone are advantages enough that I would be amazed if the balance doesn't eventually fall in favor of the self-driving car. Self-driving cars don't even have to be particularly good drivers to be better than the average human, given how muc…

> Self-driving cars don't even have to be particularly good drivers to be better than the average human, given how much the human average is dragged down by recklessnes Tell that to the jury when your self driving car runs into the side of school bus full of kids (which will happen given any reasonable adoption). Self driving cars would have to be held to an almost insanely high standard to be “winnable lawsuit” proo…

If we (society) took an air traffic safety approach, e.g., analyzing each crash, root causing it, and working to address it, one can imagine a day where self-driving cars are very safe. (I’m sure that day is a long way off still.)

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#656

Post by anticensor »

gsnedders wrote: post #637
usrusr wrote: post #504

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Smaller trains with bimodal traction. Because steel on steel is terrible at spontaneous braking, hence the significantly bigger gaps between consecutive trains compared to the gap between consecutive cars or trucks. And because steel on steel is terrible at the long tail of events that would cause contingency diversion, be it maintenance, disasters or organizational confusion. And because it would neatly solve the la…

> hence the significantly bigger gaps between consecutive trains compared to the gap between consecutive cars or trucks A lot of this is because railway signalling operates on a brick-wall principal: it is constantly assumed the vehicle in front could come to a dead halt instantaneously, whereas most road situations assume if you can match the braking performance of the vehicle in front with some margin. The railway…

> A lot of this is because railway signalling operates on a brick-wall principal

That applies to old style -though still in common use- signalling. CBTC (every railway should use, but very few uses it) has similar, or even tighter, margins to road signalling.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#658

Post by rsj_hn »

sjy wrote: post #450
jstummbillig wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I doubt, that the software / hardware will have a common sense, like we humans have Aren't sanity checks basically common sense? I would suspect they already play a major role in making autonomous driving a reality.

Common sense is not just a large number of sanity checks, it also includes the ability to solve some of the problems identified by failed sanity checks. For example, common sense might lead you to break the road rules in an emergency, or drive a car with a safety problem for a short distance instead of getting it towed.

Imagine something like a dangerous situation -- there is an oncoming fire or flood, and you need to get out of there, but your self-driving car decides to do a precautionary stop because one of the sensors stopped working. People are totally underestimating the intelligence required to make these types of decisions. Surrendering your mobility to a program is a much bigger hurdle than people think, and the bar is much higher than being able to successfully avoid collisions.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#659

Post by beerandt »

TwoBit wrote: post #576
ajhurliman wrote: post #516

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think what they meant by "tricking" the cars is to paint roads in a deceiving way to make cars meander into lakes or something like that, not hacking everyone's cars.

But cars will recognize that something changed and validate it.

This presumes a car with logical abilities that would negate the need for infrastructure to "meet it halfway."

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#660

Post by tialaramex »

tim333 wrote: post #474
rkagerer wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Self driving trains would probably be easier. Aren't there already some airport shuttle trains and metro transit that's fully automated? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automated_train_syst...

Docklands Light Railway works quite well with 45 stations. Humans can take over if needed. Running since 1987 so fairly old tech.

A DLR train has a trained operator, they just aren't (usually) driving. A few places have trains with nobody trained onboard at all. In the event of an emergency remote operators can talk to the passengers e.g. to explain that somebody will come to help or that it has been made safe for them to evacuate (automated trains are invariably electric so it may not be safe to just wander off the train outside a station).
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