I am more fearful of trolls, tricking the technology. I doubt, that the software / hardware will have a common sense, like we humans have. Its this common sense that keeps us alive in unexpected scenarios, like when the paint on the road is missing.
Still better than humans, humans kill 3000 people using vehicles every day, and most of those aren't even trying
Good luck getting the system to even that level of proficiency. Not impossible, but people are actually very good drivers (that still kill truckloads of people).
My average drive distance is under 10 miles. The expected number of miles for Waymo to disengage once is over 3 orders of magnitude higher. I'd have to take 1000 trips before Waymo would have disengaged. That does not jive with your numbers (1 disengage per trip, roughly 10 miles), unless you're saying that Waymo's numbers are juiced by few city miles?
What is wrong with the traffic lights in your city would be the much more interesting question here. Everywhere I know, traffic lights work as long as their power supply is intact
Shitty maintenance on top of lower bidder supplying sub-par equipment because half of the money went to corruption. The result is water getting in the circuits and shorting them out.
Alright. I work with roads and traffic infrastructure, and have never seen that situation before. The active equipment (in my experience) is all stored in above ground cabinets - just simple grey metal cabinets, elevated on foundations or poles, sealed with a gasket but with vent holes to prevent heat buildup. It would take almost deliberate misconstruction to cause a short.
My average drive distance is under 10 miles. The expected number of miles for Waymo to disengage once is over 3 orders of magnitude higher. I'd have to take 1000 trips before Waymo would have disengaged. That does not jive with your numbers (1 disengage per trip, roughly 10 miles), unless you're saying that Waymo's numbers are juiced by few city miles?
Last I checked waymo drives a very prescriptive route and doesn’t go over like 35mph or something. It’s also not running at scale, meaning a non trivial amount of them on the road. Call me back when waymo can drive in all seasons in random places anywhere in the US.
Sure sure, maybe we have FSD only in like SoCal+TX+AZ+AL+FL. That, on its own, is a game changer.
Doesn't have to solve all problems, only sufficiently large problems.
There is a lot of evidence that technology tends to improve over time.
Bacteria in a sealed container will reproduce until all resources are consumed. Then they drop to anemic levels or die out entirely. Humans live in a relatively closed system. And modern technology sits atop a very fragile foundation. All that to say past evidence does indicate technology generally gets better, but not necessarily forever.
No we don't.
We live on a planet around a midlife star. The amount of resources available to us over the next 10,000 years is staggering.
What's stopping people from destroying yield signs and other safety critical road infrastructure now? Sometimes common sense helps, but it you're out to cause chaos, there's a ton of things you can do today that would cause crashes - but most of the time, people don't.
If you destroy a yield sign, maybe it will eventually cause some problems, or maybe not. We could imagine a world in which destroying smart infrastructure could pretty instantaneously and reliably cause massive traffic jams, which seems like it would appeal more to certain trolls and perhaps protestors. We could also imagine a world in which more subtle attacks could reliably and fairly quickly cause injury/fatality…
If it's such a busy location to cause a big jam, how did the vandals get away with destroying it? In out of the way places, it won't cause a big jam.
I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…
> .. and will be a niche hobby on race tracks Just like horses. Am sure there was a time no one ever imagined cars would completely replace horses on roads.
There are still horses on roads sometimes. I passed through a town recently and saw two separate horse drawn carriages on the roads.
What's stopping people from destroying yield signs and other safety critical road infrastructure now? Sometimes common sense helps, but it you're out to cause chaos, there's a ton of things you can do today that would cause crashes - but most of the time, people don't.
The yield signs could be backed up with an an official map all cars read from as well.
And then let that ‘official map’ from Google charge $100/month subscription fee.
I find it extremely unethical for Tesla to sell its customers a $6000 option to "Enable full self driving mode" some time in the future. Does anyone really think that this will happen before their car is totaled/broken/old/end of life (10-15 years)?
Agree 100%. It is now $7000, by the way.
At some point in the not-to-distant future I expect them to bundle most of what they currently package as FSD and sell it as enhanced autopilot again, for a whole lot less than $7K. Then I might buy it.
I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…
We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?
Volvo has proposed some rather simple infrastructure - driving magnetized nails into the pavement as a lane hint. This is mostly because they have to deal with heavy snow. It's not the sole, or even the primary guidance system, but it helps. They also suggest that snowplows could use the magnets for guidance. In snowy areas, it's common to use posts or flags or even overhead signs (in Hokkaido) to show where the road is.