Earlier quoted context omitted.
What if I told you I could offer you a 99% automated intercity solution? That's right, a solution where 99% of the people involved have no obligation whatsoever to engage with piloting the vehicle... EVER! Where the vehicle just sort of seems to... drive itself? Is this some futuristic sci-fi fantasy? Well hold onto your hat, because the future is NOW! Behold! https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7177/6894934663_0619c8bea3.…
Trains kind of suck though. I used them a lot in the UK because I didn't have a car. The UK has an OK train network. The problem with trains is that they are very, very inconvenient for most journeys. Sunday evening? forget it. After 11pm? Nope. Journey that runs perpendicular to the local line to London? Lol, enjoy a 5 hour journey to go 100 miles. Want to take cargo like a new washing machine? Lol. Want to go somew…
Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'
561–570 of 923 posts
Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'
#562Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am more fearful of trolls, tricking the technology. I doubt, that the software / hardware will have a common sense, like we humans have. Its this common sense that keeps us alive in unexpected scenarios, like when the paint on the road is missing.
What's stopping people from destroying yield signs and other safety critical road infrastructure now? Sometimes common sense helps, but it you're out to cause chaos, there's a ton of things you can do today that would cause crashes - but most of the time, people don't.
We could also imagine a world in which more subtle attacks could reliably and fairly quickly cause injury/fatality accidents, which might appeal to terrorists.
Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'
#563I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…
I think I am going to side with VW on this. I have always been skeptical of fully autonomous vehicles, and I do not believe they will _ever_ exist on the roads that currently stand. Driving safely in all conditions without aid from a human is simply too complex a task for code that can be audited and verified. If some AI model that's been trained on a billion years of driving experience shows promise, but it is some…
Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'
#564Earlier quoted context omitted.
The big reasons I want a self driving car is because I want to eliminate the boring drudgery and make the routine parts of driving safer. If I have to drive the last 1% myself, it's not a big deal. I suspect this is how most people feel. I haven't done the math, but time spent on forest service roads, wedding parking lots, and boarding ferries is quite low overall. And the idea of driving in those instances doesn't b…
> If I have to drive the last 1% myself, it's not a big deal. I suspect this is how most people feel. Which is all well and good until you realize a few things: 1) that “last 1%” happens every trip at any time. You will always encounter an edge case the machine cannot handle. Period. 2) as a result you have to always pay attention in order to immediately take over 3) you can’t because you (the royal you) are three sh…
Either you're driving, or you're a passenger in a car with a driver who seems reliable, but really isn't totally so. Eventually, that will become a winning bet, but when?
Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'
#565I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…
What about dirt forest service roads? What about the dirt parking lot at that wedding you just went to? How will it find a parking spot? How will it get into a ferry where people direct you to the correct spot? How will it deal with an accident up ahead where some drunk bystander is trying to direct traffic? How will it know to ignore the drunk guy? What if it isn’t a drunk guy but a sober person directing traffic? D…
Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'
#566Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is no evidence that automated driving systems are any safer than human drivers, or that they ever will be.
> or that they ever will be Eventually being better than humans seems like it's obviously going to happen. Not driving drunk, not getting distracted, and not sleeping at the wheel alone are advantages enough that I would be amazed if the balance doesn't eventually fall in favor of the self-driving car. Self-driving cars don't even have to be particularly good drivers to be better than the average human, given how muc…
Tell that to the jury when your self driving car runs into the side of school bus full of kids (which will happen given any reasonable adoption).
Self driving cars would have to be held to an almost insanely high standard to be “winnable lawsuit” proof.
Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'
#567Earlier quoted context omitted.
From Tesla's latest Vehicle Safety Report: > In the 4th quarter, we registered one accident for every 3.07 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.10 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 1.…
That's a nice bit of advertising, but; They cheat. When the car detects an unusual or difficult situation developing it prompts the driver to take over. This means that all the really tricky bits of driving are done by the human and all the easy bits are done by the machine.. There was a competing study done against cars with similar price/age/safety equipment that didn't have the auto pilot option and Tesla caused c…
Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'
#568I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…
Here's a grim reality: at ~3 million per death in a car crash (that was a reasonable estimate of insurance cost, overall, a decade ago or so), with ~37k deaths/year in motor vehicule accidents in the USA for instance, that's roughly $100 billion / year — a mere 0.5% of its $20 trillion GDP. So I'm not holding my breath for public or private action at a massive scale (think that fracking alone was orders of magnitude more profitable for the US, and came with a strong geopolitical advantage to boot with).
Do the math for your country, $3M/death over GDP, it's usually negligible compared to "the big thing" that your local politicians and corporations keep talking about.
Even in Western Europe, where
- regulation is people's #1 method for solving everything and anything,
- "the value of life" is emphasized every other speech and publication and actual social security systems, free medical care, free education even, etc. (a few hundred bucks away from actual UBI, for real),
- companies could actually compete (Europe has 0 tech giant, but several big car manufacturers),
you don't hear a lot of political or popular or private (business) support for Level 4 infrastructure (L4: roads dedicated to self-driving cars, likely to kill ~1000x less than human-driven roads, not to mention the economic gain of time while commuting and travelling by road, which whether work or leisure is a net psychological gain).
Actually L4 is not even a "topic" in many such countries (let alone L5), it's a curiosity, a funny segment to wrap up the news. Even though L4 is totally doable NOW. What you actually hear is much fear about tech — as usual. That's about it for self-driving cars.
I have no idea why, it makes no sense to me, but even if rich cosy comfortable life-adoring 35h/week western Europe doesn't want it bad, I don't know who does/will, in the short/medium term.
The above "grim reality" is just my way of fishing for answers, really. I don't know. I'm just skeptical that self-driving cars are a thing that people or leaders (public and private) actually want. I hear much, much resistance to the idea and very little interest for the upsides from the mainstream. I sees smiles and eyes rolling, and 10 years later there is still no decent infrastructure to charge EVs except Tesla's — a foreign entity, by far the biggest promoter of it all, but can they do it? Can they reach L5 or politically negociate L4? Back to the above concerns, or absence thereof really, of the mainstream.
It's like space, basically: it would be incredibly little of the world's GDP to put massively more effort and shorten industrial-scale space activities dramatically — like if it's 30 years away at current rate, we could make it by 2030 really easily, without pushing it far (nothing like a war effort for instance). And the benefits are so immense it's basically stupid to argue against, the question is how to do it best. And yet it's still anecdotal in most countries budget, it's mostly just PR. Even as we speak, a "prime time" for space as a topic of (positive) interest for the mainstream. Go figure.
Self-driving cars, it seems, are met with even more political and social resistance than they are made impossible by idealistic goals, because the former is a current showstopper whereas our current technological capacities are not.
Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'
#569Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is no evidence that automated driving systems are any safer than human drivers, or that they ever will be.
There is a lot of evidence that technology tends to improve over time.
Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'
#570Earlier quoted context omitted.
What's stopping people from destroying yield signs and other safety critical road infrastructure now? Sometimes common sense helps, but it you're out to cause chaos, there's a ton of things you can do today that would cause crashes - but most of the time, people don't.
If you destroy a yield sign, maybe it will eventually cause some problems, or maybe not. We could imagine a world in which destroying smart infrastructure could pretty instantaneously and reliably cause massive traffic jams, which seems like it would appeal more to certain trolls and perhaps protestors. We could also imagine a world in which more subtle attacks could reliably and fairly quickly cause injury/fatality…