Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen' • Hacker News Board

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#511

Post by cpitman » Sun, Jan 19, 2020, 1:20 AM UTC

rkagerer wrote: post #263

zamfi wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The counter-example to this is train tracks. (There are minimum standards for roads, too.)

Self driving trains would probably be easier. Aren't there already some airport shuttle trains and metro transit that's fully automated? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automated_train_syst...

FWIW, self driving trains are a very different problem. With self driving cars, the approach has been to use sensors on the vehicle and make autonomous decisions based on that input. This will never work for trains, because their stopping distances are so long that they cannot use a sensor to detect most oncoming issues.

Self driving trains will require more coordination, with central dispatch to tell them when/where to go. That leaves the intelligence on the train much more basic.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#512

Post by joe_the_user » Sun, Jan 19, 2020, 1:21 AM UTC

erikpukinskis wrote: post #467

joe_the_user wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think self-driving cars are like fusion reactors, they're perfectly possible on paper and, like, totally 15years away from now. There's a certain similarity but I don't know any paper that actually gives any assure that self-driving is going to ever be possible. The only theory is "we will prevent extraneous factors and then calculate".

I find these arguments—about how a certain thing is arguably “impossible”—to be the most tiresome arguments on HN. Everything that is possible today... used to be “impossible”. If something appears “impossible” to you... there’s no information there about whether it is possible.

IDK,

It seems like interested and substantial arguments happen arguments happened around what might or might not 10-30 years from now. Travel to other stars once was considered no more impossible than travel other planets and living on other planets used to be considered not much harder than traveling to them. We now can actually travel to other planets and we know now how dependent on earth-gravity, how hard it is to traverse the distances between stars and so-forth.

Which is to say, no, you're simply wrong, we haven't really progressed from everything impossible to something things possible. Just as technology has progressed very unevenly, our ideas of possibility have gone from a lot of things sort-of possible to something things quite possible and other relatively more unlikely.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#513

Post by axguscbklp » Sun, Jan 19, 2020, 1:23 AM UTC

Well yeah, of course. Full self-driving probably requires artificial general intelligence and it is quite possible that humans will never develop artificial general intelligence. The real surprising thing, for me, is how many otherwise intelligent people bought into full self-driving hype.

It's likely that if humans ever developed the sort of AI necessary for full self-driving, this AI technology would radically transform the world. Using it for cars would be one of the least important applications.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

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Post by dmurray » Sun, Jan 19, 2020, 1:24 AM UTC

est31 wrote: post #447

the-pigeon wrote: post #410

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hackers could hijack a missile and kill a lot of people too. This is why we have security. And honestly modern cars are so computerized already I think your argument applies to them as much as autonomous cars.

> Hackers could hijack a missile and kill a lot of people too. That's a sunken cost fallacy. Only because other things are hackable as well doesn't mean there is no danger. > And honestly modern cars are so computerized already I think your argument applies to them as much as autonomous cars. I've said that in my comment above as well, but it was in an edit before you replied so I guess you didn't refresh before subm…

> That's a sunken cost fallacy. Only because other things are hackable as well doesn't mean there is no danger.

It's really not a sunken cost fallacy. It's good evidence that the "think of the terrorists" angle is overblown. There are plenty of other problems with self-driving cars, but not that one.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

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Post by axguscbklp » Sun, Jan 19, 2020, 1:29 AM UTC

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

If you have to modify the environment to make it easier for the cars, then you haven't achieved fully self-driving technology.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

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Post by ajhurliman » Sun, Jan 19, 2020, 1:29 AM UTC

est31 wrote: post #346

mavhc wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still better than humans, humans kill 3000 people using vehicles every day, and most of those aren't even trying

Yeah but if the system is designed in the wrong way, hackers could kill millions in a single moment. Admittedly, this danger already exists as in all modern cars between driver and car there is a layer of (hackable and wireless network connected) software.

I think what they meant by "tricking" the cars is to paint roads in a deceiving way to make cars meander into lakes or something like that, not hacking everyone's cars.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

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Post by jtolmar » Sun, Jan 19, 2020, 1:30 AM UTC

rmtech wrote: post #309

rdiddly wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if I told you I could offer you a 99% automated intercity solution? That's right, a solution where 99% of the people involved have no obligation whatsoever to engage with piloting the vehicle... EVER! Where the vehicle just sort of seems to... drive itself? Is this some futuristic sci-fi fantasy? Well hold onto your hat, because the future is NOW! Behold! https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7177/6894934663_0619c8bea3.…

Trains kind of suck though. I used them a lot in the UK because I didn't have a car. The UK has an OK train network. The problem with trains is that they are very, very inconvenient for most journeys. Sunday evening? forget it. After 11pm? Nope. Journey that runs perpendicular to the local line to London? Lol, enjoy a 5 hour journey to go 100 miles. Want to take cargo like a new washing machine? Lol. Want to go somew…

Aren't all of those problems solved by more trains?

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#518

Post by rhizome » Sun, Jan 19, 2020, 1:34 AM UTC

Computer models of reality will always be simulacra, and the gap between reality and the model is where death and failure in general reside. "A map is not the territory," explains that computer models are always a perception, and while a technology may even be able to switch between myriad of these "perceptions", the conclusions derived will themselves be limited to a simulation of reality, no matter what.

Sure, technological advances will boost the vision resolution or interpretive rigor to insane levels (compared to present day), and this will be used to acquire increased confidence from the public, but is that enough for you to sit your child in the street and trust the driverless car to steer around it? This is the question I would ask of any proponent of any model-interpreting public technology.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

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Post by cortic » Sun, Jan 19, 2020, 1:34 AM UTC

nrp wrote: post #394

heavyset_go wrote: post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no evidence that automated driving systems are any safer than human drivers, or that they ever will be.

From Tesla's latest Vehicle Safety Report: > In the 4th quarter, we registered one accident for every 3.07 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.10 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 1.…

That's a nice bit of advertising, but; They cheat. When the car detects an unusual or difficult situation developing it prompts the driver to take over. This means that all the really tricky bits of driving are done by the human and all the easy bits are done by the machine..

There was a competing study done against cars with similar price/age/safety equipment that didn't have the auto pilot option and Tesla caused considerably more accidents.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

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Post by 14 » Sun, Jan 19, 2020, 1:34 AM UTC

tachyonbeam wrote: post #216

tapland wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does it have to be visible? Couldn't it be tokens transmitting their location with great accuracy? 0 visibility in snow happens often.

I don't see why not. We have centimeter-level GPS. It's true you maybe can't always rely on GPS signal being there, but you could also install devices on traffic lights that would allow cars to precisely locate themselves at intersections, so they stop at the correct position, etc. What I think is that self-driving cars may also force us to confront ways in which real-world driving environments are inadequate, so tha…

I also picture the moment a lot of cube satellites are above broadcasting internet across the globe 24hrs a day combined with millimeter gps combined with 5g cellular technology we could do a reasonable job of driving cars anywhere.