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Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

thedrive.com

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Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#211

Post by Barrin92 »

robbrown451 wrote: post #3

This strikes me as weird: > "This is one of the hardest problems we have. This is like we are going to Mars," Hitzinger said in a comment. "Maybe it will never happen." First of all, it seems obvious that we are going to go to Mars, eventually. Maybe not any time soon, but never? Seriously? But the bigger thing is that there is about 1000 times more economic benefit to self driving cars than of going to Mars, at leas…

>First of all, it seems obvious that we are going to go to Mars, eventually. Maybe not any time soon, but never? Seriously?

Given the questionable economics underlying humans having a presence on Mars and the extreme toll on the human body this will have, foremost by radiation I think it's actually a fair comparison in particular because full autonomy like mars colonisation is constantly being overhyped mostly by a very small group of very affluent individuals who seem to be more inspired by sci-fi than engineering.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#214

Post by rdiddly »

wwweston wrote: post #32

Opinion: level 5 autonomy would be cool, but it's not where most of the value of self-driving cars is. Most of the value in being able to travel by auto without attention is in trips longer than 15 minutes. Commutes, tourism, vacations. Shipping. Most of which is certainly highway driving. If it's possible to automate highway driving under most conditions (and safely transition either to a stop or human-piloting when…

What if I told you I could offer you a 99% automated intercity solution? That's right, a solution where 99% of the people involved have no obligation whatsoever to engage with piloting the vehicle... EVER! Where the vehicle just sort of seems to... drive itself? Is this some futuristic sci-fi fantasy? Well hold onto your hat, because the future is NOW!

Behold! https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7177/6894934663_0619c8bea3.jpg

Bonus: the vehicle can be resized at will, depending on the number of passengers.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#215

Post by judge2020 »

temporaryvector wrote: post #82
shrubble wrote: post #8

If we put a wire in the road or maybe rfid tags every 40 feet, we could easily have self driving cars. However that would mean that everyone would have access to it. The idea of self driving cars now is, a winner take all situation where whichever funded effort that succeeds, generates outsized profits from licensing or going public at a high valuation.

If I were to put wires in roads, it would be for wireless charging, so that autonomous taxis and delivery vehicles could keep driving forever (or at least until they require maintenance) without needing to stop to charge. I can see this happening gradually, beginning with docking stations, followed by parking spots with wireless charges and then downtown roads and highways. With each step reducing the required amount…

https://youtu.be/Gw6XtzEOlyI

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#216

Post by tachyonbeam »

tapland wrote: post #206
semi-extrinsic wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

Does it have to be visible? Couldn't it be tokens transmitting their location with great accuracy? 0 visibility in snow happens often.

I don't see why not. We have centimeter-level GPS. It's true you maybe can't always rely on GPS signal being there, but you could also install devices on traffic lights that would allow cars to precisely locate themselves at intersections, so they stop at the correct position, etc.

What I think is that self-driving cars may also force us to confront ways in which real-world driving environments are inadequate, so that we can make them more adequate. For example, there are intersections where stop signs (or other signs) are present but not visible. Humans know they have to stop there, so they stop anyway. Self-driving cars could systematically find and report these locations, and might get the city to do something about them.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#217

Post by jacamera »

baybal2 wrote: post #109

I think he is the one and only sane C-level person in the industry, after hearing this. People claiming most of AI hype barely know what the "AI" people mention is. And people who go as far as drawing rosy pictures of human like general AI being your personal chauffeur are past ridiculous. The entire idea of human-like general AI for practical applications is like trying to make people using horses for transport in 2…

You don't understand. We just need more data. Once we have enough data the AI will be able to model all possible scenarios and make a better decision than a human driver ever could! /s

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#218

Post by ethbro »

sverhagen wrote: post #205
semi-extrinsic wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

To give access to a very lucrative business endeavor? Someone would come up with the investment. We put a nice canape of cell towers too, or wired up every home for internet, after doing it for cable TV, after doing it for electricity. No one really frowns much at those economics anymore (in big parts of the world at least).

All of these provided access to new technologies.

Autonomous driving is a marginal improvement on an already deployed technology.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#219

Post by notatoad »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #175
colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

Do self-driving cars even need road markings? IIRC Google's self-driving car project started out ignoring road markings entirely, and relied on a centimetre-precision map of the test city instead.

That obviously has downsides too, but unreliable road markings would be a pretty silly blocker to ever having a self-driving car. that's a solveable short-term problem.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#220

Post by rainyMammoth »

sschueller wrote: post #200

I find it extremely unethical for Tesla to sell its customers a $6000 option to "Enable full self driving mode" some time in the future. Does anyone really think that this will happen before their car is totaled/broken/old/end of life (10-15 years)?

People seem to drink enough marketing PR to buy it. That whole company is built as a cult and as a PR playbook. Any other company would not be able to pull that type of dirty tricks.
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