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Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

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Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#541

Post by xyzzyz »

mr_toad wrote: post #497
xyzzyz wrote: post #422

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have nuclear tech because Manhattan project, because WWII(and because they were scientists coming from Europe that were scare of Hitler). It took a tremendous amount of money and sacrifice to get there. No, Manhattan project took trivial amount of money by today's standard. It costed less than the rounding error in typically given federal budget figures for past few decades.

It cost 2 billion in 1939. That’s over 20 billion in today’s dollars. That’s about the same as NASA’s annual budget.

Yes, and that's smaller than a rounding error in our current $4.7T budget. Hell, the $100B (today's dollars) Apollo program would also be smaller than the rounding error, since it was spread over a decade. The R&D costs on F-35 were almost triple the whole costs of Manhattan project.

Truly, we are easily able to afford projects like Manhattan and Apollo today, it's just we aren't able to pull them off anymore.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#542

Post by [deleted] »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #175
colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

[deleted]

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#544

Post by shagie »

yellow_lead wrote: post #482
the-pigeon wrote: post #410

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hackers could hijack a missile and kill a lot of people too. This is why we have security. And honestly modern cars are so computerized already I think your argument applies to them as much as autonomous cars.

I'll bite. Aside from Tesla owners, I do not know anyone in my life today whose vehicle connects to the Internet. Of course, I mean to say I don't see how your comparison to present day is accurate.

There was the Jeep a few years ago... https://www.wired.com/2015/07/hackers-remotely-kill-jeep-hig...

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#545

Post by cameronh90 »

einrealist wrote: post #257
semi-extrinsic wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

I am more fearful of trolls, tricking the technology. I doubt, that the software / hardware will have a common sense, like we humans have. Its this common sense that keeps us alive in unexpected scenarios, like when the paint on the road is missing.

What's stopping people from destroying yield signs and other safety critical road infrastructure now? Sometimes common sense helps, but it you're out to cause chaos, there's a ton of things you can do today that would cause crashes - but most of the time, people don't.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#546

Post by [deleted] »

yellow_lead wrote: post #482
the-pigeon wrote: post #410

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hackers could hijack a missile and kill a lot of people too. This is why we have security. And honestly modern cars are so computerized already I think your argument applies to them as much as autonomous cars.

I'll bite. Aside from Tesla owners, I do not know anyone in my life today whose vehicle connects to the Internet. Of course, I mean to say I don't see how your comparison to present day is accurate.

[deleted]

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#547

Post by lsc »

beefield wrote: post #352
lsc wrote: post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://peloton-tech.com - I mean, that's just one company, I think there are a handful working on just the problem you're talking about.

Yes. Can you estimate how much these companies have received funding compared to self-driving tech companies/projects? My wild guess (based only on the general visibility) is that it amounts pretty much to a rounding error.

sure, but I think the truck convoy companies are run a little bit more like regular companies than startups? they have a reasonable near-term goal and sales pipeline. Like, I think if you have a couple modern trucks you can go have peloton install their system and you can use it right now.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#548

Post by K0SM0S »

unkulunkulu wrote: post #266
baybal2 wrote: post #109

I think he is the one and only sane C-level person in the industry, after hearing this. People claiming most of AI hype barely know what the "AI" people mention is. And people who go as far as drawing rosy pictures of human like general AI being your personal chauffeur are past ridiculous. The entire idea of human-like general AI for practical applications is like trying to make people using horses for transport in 2…

He talks about difference between level 4 and level 5 (4 - attainable, 5 - may never happen). This is a strange proposition in my book: level 4 is already good enough to bring a lot of value (taxis in a big city are level 4 afaiu), level 5 - ideal but who cares?

It's actually debatable that you ever need level 5, because once you reach level 4 it's probably only a matter of time until most road infrastructure is converted for L4 self-driving vehicules (once you can statistically prove a self-driving road kills 1000x less than one with human drivers).

Like we never wondered about self-driving trains, essentially. It just became a fact once we could do remotely supervized L4, and that novelty was short-lived too.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#549

Post by shagie »

tapland wrote: post #206
semi-extrinsic wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

Does it have to be visible? Couldn't it be tokens transmitting their location with great accuracy? 0 visibility in snow happens often.

The Advanced Snow Plow system that Caltrans used as a test on Interstate 80 near Donner Summit had four miles with embedded magnets. This cost about $25,000/mile in '98.

The full description of the system can be read at https://path.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/advanced_snowp...

Alaska uses GPS for their precision plowing - https://www.truckinginfo.com/329914/how-alaska-dot-uses-gps-... . Note that to get the 2" precision you need high quality GPS receivers.

> The trucks have two GPS receivers mounted atop the cab. These receivers cost about $10,000 each, Shankwitz says. "That's probably why this hasn't been deployed in many other areas; it's just too expensive and most applications do not require that level of accuracy."

> The two-centimeter accuracy actually comes from a third receiver -- a high-precision, stationary ground-based receiver perched atop a microwave communications tower in nearby Valdez. It's accurate to within millimeters and it acts as reference receiver for the plow-mounted systems.

I don't see this being standard on self driving cars.

That said, ground penetrating radar is being looked at and appears to be a lower price point. https://phys.org/news/2016-06-vehicles-high-precision-advers...

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#550

Post by antonvs »

scoot wrote: post #446
clouddrover wrote: post #413

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's bloody well both: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bloody

Hmm, you're absolutely right! (And the dictionary I consulted is as wrong as I was.) So why does the post I was replying to not work as is?

Probably just because you're not familiar with the usage.
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