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Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

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Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#501

Post by tim333 »

krawakoliz wrote: post #334
Booktrope wrote: post #111

Or perhaps, VW exec hopes full self-driving cars may never happen, because it would imply a fleet approach where transportation would be a service instead of cars being a prized possession. That, of course, would mean far less cars. So don't expect a traditional car manufacturer to lead the way. This is incidentally one reason for Tesla's huge market value. The company actually has a plan to transition from individua…

> O r perhaps, VW exec hopes full self-driving cars may never happen, because it would imply a fleet approach where transportation would be a service instead of cars being a prized possession. Why on earth would anyone use this over public transit? That would be a hugely expensive way to travel.

Same reason people use Uber and Lyft. Same thing but no driver. Uber pool is already down to maybe 3x public transport cost, without the driver and with EVs the cost could be quite close.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#502

Post by stretchwithme »

It will happen. When it will happen is impossible to predict.

But I am pretty sure it will happen within 20 years. 5 years? Unlikely.

In any case, it will require much better testing than just letting it learn on the street. A vehicle should be able to deal with a snow covered road in the dark going down a hill with babies crawling across the road.

And EMP-induced total electrical failure. No sense in a million people getting injured at once, should that ever happen. Emergency brakes should quickly engage in a predictable way when power is lost.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#503

Post by raducu »

dodobirdlord wrote: post #395
heavyset_go wrote: post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no evidence that automated driving systems are any safer than human drivers, or that they ever will be.

> or that they ever will be Eventually being better than humans seems like it's obviously going to happen. Not driving drunk, not getting distracted, and not sleeping at the wheel alone are advantages enough that I would be amazed if the balance doesn't eventually fall in favor of the self-driving car. Self-driving cars don't even have to be particularly good drivers to be better than the average human, given how muc…

While I would love for self-driving cars to be a thing, the AI to detect tired, distracted, drunk or sleeping drivers could be in every car way, way before self-driving cars will be a thing.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#504

Post by usrusr »

siscia wrote: post #338
colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

Wouldn't be simpler to just develop smaller trains?

Smaller trains with bimodal traction. Because steel on steel is terrible at spontaneous braking, hence the significantly bigger gaps between consecutive trains compared to the gap between consecutive cars or trucks. And because steel on steel is terrible at the long tail of events that would cause contingency diversion, be it maintenance, disasters or organizational confusion. And because it would neatly solve the last mile (well, dozen miles).

Take an electrified rail network, pave it over to resemble a tramway track and add on/off ramps wherever they might be useful. Figure out an economic mechanical design that would allow a computer to precision-drive along the rail for on the fly mode switching. Which is an extremely limited task scope where computers would excel, very much unlike the almost-AGI requirements of full self driving. Mandate strong requirements for access to that network including a small minimum range of battery-autonomous operation so that you don't have to reach the atrociously high number of availability nines a conventional rail network needs to avoid total schedule collapse.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#505

Post by yellow_lead »

NullPrefix wrote: post #487
yellow_lead wrote: post #482

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll bite. Aside from Tesla owners, I do not know anyone in my life today whose vehicle connects to the Internet. Of course, I mean to say I don't see how your comparison to present day is accurate.

>Aside from Tesla owners, I do not know anyone in my life today whose vehicle connects to the Internet When did the whole OnStar botnet start? I think it's earlier than 2010.

I wasn't aware of that. I suppose that would count as the car, but doesn't most car hacking occur when the component has access to i.e the CAM bus?

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#506

Post by brandonmenc »

the-pigeon wrote: post #410
est31 wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah but if the system is designed in the wrong way, hackers could kill millions in a single moment. Admittedly, this danger already exists as in all modern cars between driver and car there is a layer of (hackable and wireless network connected) software.

Hackers could hijack a missile and kill a lot of people too. This is why we have security. And honestly modern cars are so computerized already I think your argument applies to them as much as autonomous cars.

Come on, you know missiles are locked down with way more security than consumer vehicles.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#507

Post by chiefalchemist »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #175
colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

In dense urban and suburban areas that's likely not an issue.

Another possibility is Automaker X partnering with comms / infrastructure Company Y (e.g., Comcast). Put another way, if they can get to the point this is the dealbreaker then it's easy compared to what it took to get here.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#508

Post by tim333 »

0xff00ffee wrote: post #147

I was at an ML conference in 2017 and the keynote speaker asked the audience how many years they thought it would be until ADAS lvl 5 was on the market. The keynote had proudly proclaimed 5 years, and then audibly scoffed when about 90% of the hands went up for "20 or more years". There's such a disconnect between real engineers and cheerleaders.

Though there's the Kurzweil argument that people's intuition doesn't work well with exponential growth. The engineers are probably thinking these systems work terribly and have for decades and so will for decades more but meanwhile GPU performance is doubling every year or two and many people are trying to take advantage of that.

I've been following this stuff casually since about 1980 when I totally failed to write an AI program and since then processor performance has been steadily increasing, first with clock speed and now more with multi cores. Hans Moravec, a robot guy did a reasonable estimate that to get equivalent hardware to the brain you'd need about 100 teraflops and just recently the first 100 teraflop GPU has come out (https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/data-center/v100/) which is kinda historic in a way, maybe a billion times faster than a cheap computer in 1980. Of course this will keep going for a while so the situation will flip from we can't do much because processors are much slower than the brain to the other way around.

(update NIDIA may have fudged the numbers a bit but anyway.)

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#509

Post by yalogin »

Yeah I am on the side of the skeptics. We cannot do AI in a fully controlled environment properly. What hope do we have to master a use case where the nature, elements in the physical world, vandals are all throwing all kinds of wrenches into the mix. The vision or dream of a level 5 self driving car is something I will only believe once I see.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#510

Post by hartator »

_greim_ wrote: post #321
colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

To put this in perspective, imagine this hypothetical conversation happening a century ago: "I have this new auto-mobile concept which doesn't require a horse and which can go fast; I envision up to fifty miles per hour. It will require a smooth, hardened road surface, but that will be achievable someday." "Forget about it. We already have millions of miles of roads, which are bumpy, made of dirt, and hard to build a…

Well. Old cars - and new ones - can run on the old roads. It’s just as comfortable as a caleche. Changes were way more incremental.
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