Live data from Hacker News

Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

thedrive.com

471–480 of 923 posts

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#471
post #446

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's bloody well both: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bloody

Hmm, you're absolutely right! (And the dictionary I consulted is as wrong as I was.) So why does the post I was replying to not work as is?

It does bloody work as is. People bloody say "bloody verb" all the bloody time.

Here's a bloody example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGWhjojt5dw

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#472
post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trains kind of suck though. I used them a lot in the UK because I didn't have a car. The UK has an OK train network. The problem with trains is that they are very, very inconvenient for most journeys. Sunday evening? forget it. After 11pm? Nope. Journey that runs perpendicular to the local line to London? Lol, enjoy a 5 hour journey to go 100 miles. Want to take cargo like a new washing machine? Lol. Want to go somew…

1) trains go basically everywhere frequently in Japan, it’s very much a functioning rail network, they exist and kick ass. 2) a train doesn’t need to replace 100% of personal car trips to be useful. I’m sure you’re not transporting dishwashers or taking trips after 11 pm every day. Covering 90% of use cases is sufficient, and the other 10% can be handled by either renting a car or taking an Uber. 3) we can and should…

Most people don’t live in Japan.

There are no commuter trains Tasmania.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#473
post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Paint is a wear item, the example of beacons would not be a wear item. If original commenter is correct that infrastructure meets halfway, I wouldn't expect self driving cars transition to happen fast at all - maybe on highways first, and busy city streets, later secondary roads. But that kind of thing would result in a decades long transition, and I would estimate it as never being fully autonomous (if beacons die,…

"Paint is a wear item, the example of beacons would not be a wear item" I am extremely skeptical that beacons, sitting out in the heat, and the sun, and the cold, and the rain, and exposed to whatever we use to maintain roads at that juncture, will not be "a wear item".

They'll get hit and sheared off by plows and over-size loads, or just by drunks or idiots still driving dumb cars.

I do not think people have a solid grasp of how many millions of miles of road would need to be technified for self-driving cars to be widely viable.

Most likely, it's going to be a niche thing, tightly restricted to certain places that can afford to build and maintain the infrastructure.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#474
post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The counter-example to this is train tracks. (There are minimum standards for roads, too.)

Self driving trains would probably be easier. Aren't there already some airport shuttle trains and metro transit that's fully automated? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automated_train_syst...

Docklands Light Railway works quite well with 45 stations. Humans can take over if needed. Running since 1987 so fairly old tech.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#475

The technology is not the only problem. The lawyers that are defending every dead body, and there will be dead bodies, that will sink self-driving cars. Even if everyone is 95% safer with self-driving cars, those that are killed by a self-driving car (in combo with a public that is easily swayed with non-objective arguments) will be hard to dismiss.

I don't understand this. If there are 1/20th the amount of deaths, how is that going to sink self driving cars?

Even if the death toll 1/100th ... the few dead will be paraded as examples. There will be outrage. There will be lawsuits. You are correct, it is not logical, but logic does not always prevail.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#476
Mr. Hitzinger is saying that L5 cars will never happen. Most people feel that L5 is equivalent to artificial general intelligence, and it's pretty much a given that it may never happen. But now that Waymo and Cruise and everyone else have failed to hit their self-imposed milestones, the more pressing question to ask is whether geo-fenced only-in-good-weather autonomy will ever happen.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#477

Opinion: level 5 autonomy would be cool, but it's not where most of the value of self-driving cars is. Most of the value in being able to travel by auto without attention is in trips longer than 15 minutes. Commutes, tourism, vacations. Shipping. Most of which is certainly highway driving. If it's possible to automate highway driving under most conditions (and safely transition either to a stop or human-piloting when…

What if I told you I could offer you a 99% automated intercity solution? That's right, a solution where 99% of the people involved have no obligation whatsoever to engage with piloting the vehicle... EVER! Where the vehicle just sort of seems to... drive itself? Is this some futuristic sci-fi fantasy? Well hold onto your hat, because the future is NOW! Behold! https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7177/6894934663_0619c8bea3.…

The problem in the US is we aren’t going to start getting European level train infrastructure anytime soon. Also it’s arguably not a worthwhile goal, we have so much space, and it’s an uphill battle to change US culture to be one where trains are going to be a good fit for our land use and urban planning.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#478
Honestly, germany has a whole generation going into retirement. These people drive slow, insecure and endanger others with poor sight, poor reflexes and fast cars. The roads are already filled to a standstill- even without these.

I have really high hopes, that AI would drive those old folks -and would do so faster then they would drive themselves.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#479

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

To put this in perspective, imagine this hypothetical conversation happening a century ago: "I have this new auto-mobile concept which doesn't require a horse and which can go fast; I envision up to fifty miles per hour. It will require a smooth, hardened road surface, but that will be achievable someday." "Forget about it. We already have millions of miles of roads, which are bumpy, made of dirt, and hard to build a…

Of course cars did happen and worked with the crappy roads of the time. Self driving cars will probably have to do the same - work with existing crappy roads including dirt tracks and the like.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#480
post #303
post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Riding trains is great, getting to the train station(s) in a busy city, worrying about the schedule and being in the right spot for the right train, etc, is not at all fun. But otherwise agreed a ton of this stuff could be solved with modern trains. But appeasing all of the special interest groups in between has made infrastructure development impossibly expensive or takes a decade. So we keep driving cars even long…

This is still a solved problem in many European cities. Train stations are often in the city centre, or on the edge of it. They almost always connect with either metro or bus networks, typically with frequent services.

Not in Germany, may be in big cities, but any other region is plagued by disruptions and way less frequent services paired together with horrible local public transport.

The former government owned national railway basically owns every piece of important track and doesn’t give a damn about customers. The prices are constantly rising while the service declines. Can’t count how much time I’ve wasted on several train stations, waiting for up to two hours for late trains, hell, even having to get a hotel multiple times.

Post reply on HN