Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen' • Hacker News Board

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#301

Post by bpye » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:11 PM UTC

rdiddly wrote: post #214

wwweston wrote: post #32

Opinion: level 5 autonomy would be cool, but it's not where most of the value of self-driving cars is. Most of the value in being able to travel by auto without attention is in trips longer than 15 minutes. Commutes, tourism, vacations. Shipping. Most of which is certainly highway driving. If it's possible to automate highway driving under most conditions (and safely transition either to a stop or human-piloting when…

What if I told you I could offer you a 99% automated intercity solution? That's right, a solution where 99% of the people involved have no obligation whatsoever to engage with piloting the vehicle... EVER! Where the vehicle just sort of seems to... drive itself? Is this some futuristic sci-fi fantasy? Well hold onto your hat, because the future is NOW! Behold! https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7177/6894934663_0619c8bea3.…

It's interesting to consider what would have happened had the US invested the money it spent on the interstate system on intercity rail instead.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#302

Post by jethro_tell » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:11 PM UTC

bpfrh wrote: post #273

einrealist wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am more fearful of trolls, tricking the technology. I doubt, that the software / hardware will have a common sense, like we humans have. Its this common sense that keeps us alive in unexpected scenarios, like when the paint on the road is missing.

I would argue that signing beacon messages with a PKI infrastructure would migate that issue.

Also, a stake in the ground on the edge of the road that says, I'm 15 feet to the right of the center lane will probably pay for itself in a couple years of stripping. You put two in the ground that say, I'm 15 feet to the right of the centerline and 35 feet from the next beacon and you never have to paint a centerline there again.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#303

Post by bpye » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:12 PM UTC

dmix wrote: post #294

Sharlin wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. Intercity traffic is a problem we solved in the 1800s.

Riding trains is great, getting to the train station(s) in a busy city, worrying about the schedule and being in the right spot for the right train, etc, is not at all fun. But otherwise agreed a ton of this stuff could be solved with modern trains. But appeasing all of the special interest groups in between has made infrastructure development impossibly expensive or takes a decade. So we keep driving cars even long…

This is still a solved problem in many European cities. Train stations are often in the city centre, or on the edge of it. They almost always connect with either metro or bus networks, typically with frequent services.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#304

Post by NikolaNovak » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:12 PM UTC

brianwawok wrote: post #141

pts_ wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They should look into how the US Navy switched back to physical switches from touch screens on ships for unambiguous commands.

Gas and steering are physical controls though. Radio and other such features do not need dedicated buttons. Crazy how many buttons my normal car has.

Again, that's a personal preference.

Next, Previous, Pause, Play, Mute - I personally want them to be physical controls. On steering wheel ideally, on the dashboard otherwise. I use them multiple times a drive, and I don't want to take my eyes off the road to do them.

Same with seat heat, lights, wipers - anything I may want to do while driving, I want a button.

Setting up the exact shade of my dashboard light - that can be buried in a menu :D

Basically... when you say "Crazy how many buttons my normal car has" :

- You say that as a bad thing

- I see that as a brilliant thing... IFF done well:

Of course, physical buttons/levers/knobs can still be done well, or poorly.

Having many identical buttons in a confusing layout is just as bad as touchscreen - I have to look at them to use them.

Having buttons in a good, intuitive layout; especially buttons which are distinct from each other, as opposed to row of 6 buttons all the same, is brilliant. Even better if it's a distinct combination of buttons, knobs, switches, levers, etc - anything to help haptic feedback and intuitive access. Sometimes I think people who are against buttons may simply never had a car with good physical UI:/

(simple thing - my old 2004 WRX has a next / previous knob-like-thing, rather than two identical buttons next to each other [1]. It felt ridiculous when I first saw it - but then I realized its quality of purpose vs sexiness - I never ever ever have to think or be distracted even a millisecond to know exactly how to skip a song :). Compare to cars which have several identical square buttons for next, previous, pause, play; or temp up, temp down, fan up, fan down, A/C -- that's just horrible UI by clueless people for customers who don't know / haven't experienced better :-/ ]

1: Bottom right of the stereo: https://images.crutchfieldonline.com/ImageBank/v200311131204...

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#305

Post by antirez » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:12 PM UTC

It was quite clear to many of us that autonomous driving at a certain level is a very hard goal to reach, but it may happen in the long run. However what is incredible is that actually a form of AD, that is public transportation, is available for centuries yet in many places in the world this option is ignored. Guess why? The key is in the "public" part.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#306

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:13 PM UTC

Ensorceled wrote: post #288

leoh wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that they're a reasonably competent outsider arguably bolsters their position.

Their future sales are dependent upon there NOT not being self driving cars which arguably reduces their position dramatically.

[deleted]

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#307

Post by spookthesunset » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:13 PM UTC

_red wrote: post #271

jsolson wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may not be getting in that car, but I certainly will. After all, every driver on the road today is an incomprehensible black box where not only do we not know the parameters, we don't even know the function they're parameterizing. Every instance functions differently, and our testing procedures have woefully low coverage.

how do you see insurance working? why would drivers be responsible to have insurance when the car is completely controlled by bigcorp programmers?

Insurance would be a nightmare for a manufacturer. Every accident will initially be pegged to the auto maker (as it should be.. it’s their code!). The auto maker will always try to weasel out and blame the passenger-owners of the car (they didn’t maintain it, the paint was dirty and messed with the sensors, the tire pressure was 2 PSI lower than average).

And if you go with the “nobody will own cars, you’ll just summon one” model... well the fleet owner will just sue the manufacturer instead.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#308

Post by jlevers » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:13 PM UTC

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #175

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

This doesn't answer your question about money, but with (mostly) human drivers on the road there isn't much incentive to keep the lines visible, because humans are excellent at inferring where the lines should be, even if they're not there.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#309

Post by rmtech » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:13 PM UTC

rdiddly wrote: post #214

wwweston wrote: post #32

Opinion: level 5 autonomy would be cool, but it's not where most of the value of self-driving cars is. Most of the value in being able to travel by auto without attention is in trips longer than 15 minutes. Commutes, tourism, vacations. Shipping. Most of which is certainly highway driving. If it's possible to automate highway driving under most conditions (and safely transition either to a stop or human-piloting when…

What if I told you I could offer you a 99% automated intercity solution? That's right, a solution where 99% of the people involved have no obligation whatsoever to engage with piloting the vehicle... EVER! Where the vehicle just sort of seems to... drive itself? Is this some futuristic sci-fi fantasy? Well hold onto your hat, because the future is NOW! Behold! https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7177/6894934663_0619c8bea3.…

Trains kind of suck though. I used them a lot in the UK because I didn't have a car. The UK has an OK train network.

The problem with trains is that they are very, very inconvenient for most journeys. Sunday evening? forget it. After 11pm? Nope. Journey that runs perpendicular to the local line to London? Lol, enjoy a 5 hour journey to go 100 miles. Want to take cargo like a new washing machine? Lol. Want to go somewhere that's not near a station by bus? Enjoy Journey times that are 4, 5 or 10 times slower than a car.

Trains are good for busy commuter lines and nothing else.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#310

Post by Fomite » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:13 PM UTC

SECProto wrote: post #199

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

Paint is a wear item, the example of beacons would not be a wear item. If original commenter is correct that infrastructure meets halfway, I wouldn't expect self driving cars transition to happen fast at all - maybe on highways first, and busy city streets, later secondary roads. But that kind of thing would result in a decades long transition, and I would estimate it as never being fully autonomous (if beacons die,…

"Paint is a wear item, the example of beacons would not be a wear item"

I am extremely skeptical that beacons, sitting out in the heat, and the sun, and the cold, and the rain, and exposed to whatever we use to maintain roads at that juncture, will not be "a wear item".