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Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

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Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#341

Post by 93po »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #175
colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

It seems to me 99.99% of all road markings are perfectly visible

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#342

Post by lsc »

Gene_Parmesan wrote: post #232
colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

It's my belief that self driving cars will, for a very significant time in the future, still need to make human control possible. Think about the vast amounts of rural roads -- dirt, gravel. Anyone who's ever taken a 4x4 out to a trailhead in the desert knows that sometimes those roads don't even exist except on a map. Washouts can be a weekly problem in certain seasons. But you don't start in the desert, right? You…

eh, something that only works in cities would be pretty nice for more than half of us. If you need an off road vehicle twice a year, you rent one; we have that technology already.

(I mean, we're still a long ways away from level 5 in the city.. I'm just saying, something that was level 5 only on pavement and only in the city would be damn useful; and good enough for more than half of us.)

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#343

Post by anotheruser2020 »

erik_seaberg wrote: post #324
anotheruser2020 wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like driving, I also like the assistance that modern vehicles provide on Motorways, however, would I ever fully hand over control? Probably not. A Boeing 747 has autopilot.. however 3 pilots sit behind hit to keep an eye on what it's doing.

Sometimes I like driving, but I also like sleeping or hacking or drinking, and it'd be great to have the choice.

I don't think our generation will ever let a computer take full control.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#344

Post by lsc »

beefield wrote: post #241
colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

> We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars. Or even easier, platooning. I don't understand why autonomous cars is a bigger thing than platooning. I mean, platooning solves 95% of use cases of self driving cars [1] and is orders of magnitude easier problem to solve. [1] At least for me. I do not mind driving in the cities myself, but if I just could nap or watch a movi…

https://peloton-tech.com - I mean, that's just one company, I think there are a handful working on just the problem you're talking about.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#345

Post by linuxhansl »

Hah. I've been saying that for a while, much to the amusement of some of my friends and coworkers. Some of them claim that their kids will never need to learn how to drive. Maybe I'll have the last laugh, although I wish I'd be wrong about this.

I hope that by the time I'm too old to drive - a few decades from now - self-driving are available, but I'm not betting on it.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#346

Post by est31 »

mavhc wrote: post #275
einrealist wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am more fearful of trolls, tricking the technology. I doubt, that the software / hardware will have a common sense, like we humans have. Its this common sense that keeps us alive in unexpected scenarios, like when the paint on the road is missing.

Still better than humans, humans kill 3000 people using vehicles every day, and most of those aren't even trying

Yeah but if the system is designed in the wrong way, hackers could kill millions in a single moment. Admittedly, this danger already exists as in all modern cars between driver and car there is a layer of (hackable and wireless network connected) software.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#347

Post by [deleted] »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #175
colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

[deleted]

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#348

Post by mavhc »

tripa wrote: post #276
mavhc wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the point though, the Waymo car doesn't rely on gps, it's has HD maps on board. Plus is has dead reckoning because it's touching the ground, so it knows where it's moving.

Not sure I get your point. Having atom-resolution maps doesn't help a bit it you don't know where on it you are.

Can't spoof gps all the time everywhere. Once you have a general idea where you are (usually because that's where you were when you stopped yesterday), you can compare what you can see with hd maps, and fix your position exactly. You know you're not in a building, but on a drivable surface for a start.

My 2006 car was fine driving underground for 10 mins with no gps signal, but got confused when I drove it onto a train and it moved 30 miles without the wheels turning. Then after a few minutes got a gps signal again and fixed itself. Had an option to manually set the position and heading too.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#349

Post by umvi »

_greim_ wrote: post #321
colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

To put this in perspective, imagine this hypothetical conversation happening a century ago: "I have this new auto-mobile concept which doesn't require a horse and which can go fast; I envision up to fifty miles per hour. It will require a smooth, hardened road surface, but that will be achievable someday." "Forget about it. We already have millions of miles of roads, which are bumpy, made of dirt, and hard to build a…

Cobblestone/bumpy/muddy/dirt streets still exist today.

I could see autonomous vehicles working in a city, but not out in the country where a driveway might be an unmarked dirt path.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#350

Post by lsc »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #272
colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

All of this discussion on smart infrastructure is moot, imho, because it won't be guaranteed to be there on all roads and cars will have to be designed to work even when the smart infrastructure breaks down. So this means that self-driving cars will have to safely handle these cases and that also means that it is likely that cars will have to still be able to be driven manually. Bottom line: self-driving cars will ha…

I dunno. Americans seem to want these giant 4x4s even when they leave the city twice a year; they'd be better off (certainly safer... most trucks are more dangerous for other people and for the occupants) if they had a little car for city driving and rented the off road cargo hauler when they needed it.

A city-only car would be totally useful for people who live in cities; you just rent something when you want to go to the boonies.

Heck, most BEVs are that way now; I've got like 120 miles of range on mine, which is fine almost all the time. the two or three times a year I need something with more range or with more cargo capacity or what have you, I borrow or rent.

I think that the economics of the first level5 cars might be similar to current BEVs, in that you can only go where there is infrastructure. which is where most of us go most of the time.

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