Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen' • Hacker News Board

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#311

Post by smileysteve » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:14 PM UTC

_red wrote: post #277

macinjosh wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are millions of miles of roads just in the US that will never have that sort of infrastructure because the cost of keeping beacons running and marking in place would be astronomical. Sure maybe California will have some of that around big population areas but that's probably about it. What happens to all these markings when it snows a couple centimeters?' Fully self driving cars won't happen in our lifetime, pr…

its not only lines on the road though: Imagine you are following a pickup-truck and out of the back an obviously empty box floats out of the bed and lands directly in front of your car. For a human its trivial to know the box is empty and its ok to hit it....does "AI" know that? Multiply that case x1000 and you have the conditions self-driving cars will need to handle on a daily basis.

> For a human its trivial to know the box is empty and its ok to hit it....does "AI" know that?

This is a great anecdote that definitely needs a source to back it up.

Primarily, there are a significant number of single vehicle accidents caused by drivers jerking the wheel instead of acting in a calm manner.

Secondly, there are many cases where a box is not safe to ignore; that could mean it damaging a fog light, a large staple in it hitting a tire, or it getting stuck somewhere, temporary loss of traction or visibility.

In conclusion; anything on the road should be treated as something to avoid, but definitely something to avoid a high speed collision with.

Other Anecdotes to consider: The first model S firs was caused by a trailer hitch in the road. Hammer hit a model 3. Asphalt coming loose in slabs and hitting a driver. Mattresses and ice from the roof in front of you. Tldr; There are many accidents that do happen with human drivers.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#312

Post by NikolaNovak » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:15 PM UTC

ogre_codes wrote: post #85

NikolaNovak wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>I can’t imagine paying $40,000+ on a new car that isn’t a Tesla right now It's personal & subjective, and nobody will persuade anybody in a thread, but FWIW I absolutely positively can. - I'm unlikely to utilize self-driving any time soon - The stories of their firmware terrify me. And I don't want a DAW and computer games running on my ECU :O - More pragmatically though, the Tesla UI paradigm is completely foreign…

> It's personal & subjective, and nobody will persuade anybody in a thread, but FWIW I absolutely positively can. I wasn’t trying to paint a broad picture because as you suggest, it’s subjective. But there is some evidence that I’m not alone. https://www.wheelsjoint.com/tesla-model-3-is-wreaking-havoc-... > I'm looking for a "HOTAS" type UI, where I can do anything I want without taking my eyes and focus off the road…

>>But there is some evidence that I’m not alone.

Oh, absolutely - as I said, I'm in a minority.

But I feel a lot of it is: Sexiness of how it looks vs Practicality of usage

The problem is, sexiness is immediately obvious & attractive. Practicality takes a long time and active observation to notice and appreciate. I fear that touchscreens with bad UI will win; though I hope eventually there may be some backlash from consumers - or at least thought and compromise from manufacturers. :-/

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#313

Post by kazen44 » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:15 PM UTC

mytailorisrich wrote: post #272

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

All of this discussion on smart infrastructure is moot, imho, because it won't be guaranteed to be there on all roads and cars will have to be designed to work even when the smart infrastructure breaks down. So this means that self-driving cars will have to safely handle these cases and that also means that it is likely that cars will have to still be able to be driven manually. Bottom line: self-driving cars will ha…

> All of this discussion on smart infrastructure is moot, imho, because it won't be guaranteed to be there on all roads and cars will have to be designed to work even when the smart infrastructure breaks down.

Also, a vast majority of the world doesn't even have proper roads like many western countries do.

In many parts of the world a road is not even paved or asphalted, and let's not forget what is actually making use of that road.

Seeing animals on roads might be a rare sight in a western country, but in much of the world, the road is shared by more then just passenger cars and trucks.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#314

Post by fataliss » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:16 PM UTC

dmix wrote: post #294

Sharlin wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. Intercity traffic is a problem we solved in the 1800s.

Riding trains is great, getting to the train station(s) in a busy city, worrying about the schedule and being in the right spot for the right train, etc, is not at all fun. But otherwise agreed a ton of this stuff could be solved with modern trains. But appeasing all of the special interest groups in between has made infrastructure development impossibly expensive or takes a decade. So we keep driving cars even long…

Cities like Tokyo have solved most of that for now decades. Def depends on whether the government is willing to make the investment (heavy) into the right amount and level of infrastructure. When you know that Los Angeles used to have over a 1000 miles of rails before the 60's and after pressure from car and tire makers ripped it all away, you understand where all our traffic problems come from :)

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#315

Post by martyvis » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:16 PM UTC

tripa wrote: post #276

mavhc wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the point though, the Waymo car doesn't rely on gps, it's has HD maps on board. Plus is has dead reckoning because it's touching the ground, so it knows where it's moving.

Not sure I get your point. Having atom-resolution maps doesn't help a bit it you don't know where on it you are.

If you have high res images available of the vicinity ( and constantly update them ) you can work out where you are.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#316

Post by darkerside » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:18 PM UTC

jsolson wrote: post #238

F-0X wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think I am going to side with VW on this. I have always been skeptical of fully autonomous vehicles, and I do not believe they will _ever_ exist on the roads that currently stand. Driving safely in all conditions without aid from a human is simply too complex a task for code that can be audited and verified. If some AI model that's been trained on a billion years of driving experience shows promise, but it is some…

You may not be getting in that car, but I certainly will. After all, every driver on the road today is an incomprehensible black box where not only do we not know the parameters, we don't even know the function they're parameterizing. Every instance functions differently, and our testing procedures have woefully low coverage.

When one of those black boxes malfunctions it gets taken off the road. When the AI malfunctions, are we going to shut down entire classes of vehicles until the problem is confirmed fixed?

Not to mention that most software fixes cause other bugs...

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#317

Post by zahrc » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:18 PM UTC

dmix wrote: post #294

Sharlin wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. Intercity traffic is a problem we solved in the 1800s.

Riding trains is great, getting to the train station(s) in a busy city, worrying about the schedule and being in the right spot for the right train, etc, is not at all fun. But otherwise agreed a ton of this stuff could be solved with modern trains. But appeasing all of the special interest groups in between has made infrastructure development impossibly expensive or takes a decade. So we keep driving cars even long…

I know it’s practically impossible and sheer utopic but I dream of an never-ending Train going in a circle, kind of like a moving tunnel.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#318

Post by Spooky23 » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:19 PM UTC

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

No way. The tech and liability will be too expensive for many years, at least till parents run out.

My guess is that interstate type highways will be instrumented for trucks and cars will benefit.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#319

Post by wnevets » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:19 PM UTC

macinjosh wrote: post #229

wnevets wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way Multiple important stake holders seem to have significant incentives to make this happen. Local/state govs want less traffic jams and crashes, auto insurance companies would love to collect premiums and not pay out, Uber, Lyft would love to get rid of their drivers

I want an oceanside villa on the dark side of the moon but that's doesn't mean it will happen. Just because there is motivation to do something doesn't mean it is possible.

but if you had the funds to, why wouldn't you?

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#320

Post by martythemaniak » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:21 PM UTC

There seems to be an implicit assumption here that Level 5 = human = 100% of drivers. I honestly don't think that's the case at all. If I am being charitable, I'd say half of drivers would meet the implicit level 5 criteria discussed in these threads.

For example, there's a snowstorm out here today. Unless they really need to, people aren't going out displayed their incredible skill at navigating through snowsquals with centimeters of snow on the ground. They just stay home.

What will determine the success of self driving cars is not philosophical musings but their usefulness in day to day life. And if you can spend 10k on a system that'll work most of the time, but refuse to go out in snow squeals, it'll sell very well. I'd buy it.