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Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

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Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have to disagree. Most of the value is in taxi services, where you get dropped off / picked up exactly where you want, there is no need to dedicate so much land and structures to parking, there is no need to have cars sit idle for 95% of their existence, and no need to search for parking spots and walk long distances. Of course, I live in a city, where parking is a major pain. But the other things still hold. It it…

> Most of the value is in taxi services I’m imagining how gross a taxi would be that doesn’t have a driver to provide passengers a low level of behaviour moderation.

Except if you are living in Japan.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#252

I find it extremely unethical for Tesla to sell its customers a $6000 option to "Enable full self driving mode" some time in the future. Does anyone really think that this will happen before their car is totaled/broken/old/end of life (10-15 years)?

"some time in the future"...

... while Musk promises "you'll be able to self-drive, coast to coast, this year" (haha, no).

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

To give access to a very lucrative business endeavor? Someone would come up with the investment. We put a nice canape of cell towers too, or wired up every home for internet, after doing it for cable TV, after doing it for electricity. No one really frowns much at those economics anymore (in big parts of the world at least).

Those who think FSD can be solved by building special road infrastructure for self driving cars misunderstand the problem.

Cars are already equipped with suites of sensors giving them far more complete information than any human can process. Cars can already react faster and hold lanes with more precision than humans can.

What’s lacking is general intelligence. The ability to creatively respond to unexpected situations, even when it’s something you’ve never seen before.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#254
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think self-parking (as in “go find a space, possibly auto-paying”, not auto-parallel-parking) could also be a game-changer, not only for convenience and cost, but even zoning and city planning.

Lots of innovation and investment happening in this space. Expect parking lots in ~5-10 years to look very different — a lot of automation is coming.

Sure it is, bro.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#255
I don't understand why they want to make them fully autonomous. Even human drivers must stay inside the lanes. Why can't they make a semi-autonomous car that operates automatically with some sort of electronic lane marker, and have drive by wire with a human driver for off-road?

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#256
post #8

If we put a wire in the road or maybe rfid tags every 40 feet, we could easily have self driving cars. However that would mean that everyone would have access to it. The idea of self driving cars now is, a winner take all situation where whichever funded effort that succeeds, generates outsized profits from licensing or going public at a high valuation.

Sounds like you described a really complicated train system.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#257

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

I am more fearful of trolls, tricking the technology. I doubt, that the software / hardware will have a common sense, like we humans have. Its this common sense that keeps us alive in unexpected scenarios, like when the paint on the road is missing.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#258
post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To give access to a very lucrative business endeavor? Someone would come up with the investment. We put a nice canape of cell towers too, or wired up every home for internet, after doing it for cable TV, after doing it for electricity. No one really frowns much at those economics anymore (in big parts of the world at least).

All of these provided access to new technologies. Autonomous driving is a marginal improvement on an already deployed technology.

It’s hardly a marginal improvement. If FSD were to become a reality, it would offer incredible benefits to economic productivity, safety, and quality of life.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

Do self-driving cars even need road markings? IIRC Google's self-driving car project started out ignoring road markings entirely, and relied on a centimetre-precision map of the test city instead. That obviously has downsides too, but unreliable road markings would be a pretty silly blocker to ever having a self-driving car. that's a solveable short-term problem.

all fun and games until some jack-ass spoofs the GPS and moves a road 20 feet to the left.

https://www.wired.com/2012/07/drone-hijacking/

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#260
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They should look into how the US Navy switched back to physical switches from touch screens on ships for unambiguous commands.

Gas and steering are physical controls though. Radio and other such features do not need dedicated buttons. Crazy how many buttons my normal car has.

Everything you need at least once week while driving in a car should be doable without taking your eyes from the road for more than a second. Radio, AC, window heating and such fall under this category. And you have exactly the same amount of buttons on a screen anyway, they're just not physical.
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