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Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

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Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#151

Post by superkuh »

shrubble wrote: post #8

If we put a wire in the road or maybe rfid tags every 40 feet, we could easily have self driving cars. However that would mean that everyone would have access to it. The idea of self driving cars now is, a winner take all situation where whichever funded effort that succeeds, generates outsized profits from licensing or going public at a high valuation.

This doesn't work in climates where the road is obscured for days at a time due to snow and ice.

The tags, whatever form they may take, will designate the official lanes. But people in snowy climates don't drive in the official lines because they can't be seen. They drive an emergent set of paths where everyone else drives. It's often, if not most of the time, that these paths human drives take don't follow the actual road markings.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#152

Post by 0xff00ffee »

simfoo wrote: post #115
Geee wrote: post #98

Volkswagen doesn't develop self-driving tech. They use Mobileye's solution like everyone expect Tesla, Waymo and GM/Cruise. They aren't really in the position to make that argument. Level 5 means that the car can drive autonomously > 95% of the time, and it will absolutely be possible. Level 4/5 distinction doesn't really make any sense once the autonomy gets beyond certain percentage. It doesn't mean that it's level…

This is not true. VW fully owns AID which is developing its level 4 stack. VW is also invested in Argo

VW is also working with Magna on ADAS, which is a huge Tier-1 vendor. I think VW is covering all their bases by having multiple design efforts.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#154

Post by judge2020 »

coolspot wrote: post #79
bobthepanda wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would they "reduce or eliminate congestion"? Congestion is inherently caused by too many people trying to go to or through the same place at the same time. That's not possible without reducing the amount of people trying to travel during a given time period in a given place.

When roads belong exclusively to self-driving cars, they can increase speed, reduce gaps between cars and eliminate traffic wave effect. Imagine highway where everyone drives 80mph with 5ft of distance between cars. No one suddenly changes lanes, no one suddenly slows down for no reason. Here is illustration from Waymo testing facility: https://youtu.be/hKfEivMfDPU

Also https://youtu.be/iHzzSao6ypE

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#155

Post by connicpu »

maxerickson wrote: post #145
lostlogin wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most of the value is in taxi services I’m imagining how gross a taxi would be that doesn’t have a driver to provide passengers a low level of behaviour moderation.

It'll probably just be smooth, hard plastic.

Hard plastic covered in the last rider's vomit :/

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#156

Post by johannes1234321 »

lostlogin wrote: post #134
robbrown451 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have to disagree. Most of the value is in taxi services, where you get dropped off / picked up exactly where you want, there is no need to dedicate so much land and structures to parking, there is no need to have cars sit idle for 95% of their existence, and no need to search for parking spots and walk long distances. Of course, I live in a city, where parking is a major pain. But the other things still hold. It it…

> Most of the value is in taxi services I’m imagining how gross a taxi would be that doesn’t have a driver to provide passengers a low level of behaviour moderation.

Well, considering that these won't allow anonymous usage this can be mitigated by kicking out "bad" users and big fines. Also cars can visit the cleaning zone frequently.

For "free floating car sharing" (DriveNow/ShareNow, Yandex.Drive, ...) this seems to work quite well.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#157

Post by savrajsingh »

simfoo wrote: post #115
Geee wrote: post #98

Volkswagen doesn't develop self-driving tech. They use Mobileye's solution like everyone expect Tesla, Waymo and GM/Cruise. They aren't really in the position to make that argument. Level 5 means that the car can drive autonomously > 95% of the time, and it will absolutely be possible. Level 4/5 distinction doesn't really make any sense once the autonomy gets beyond certain percentage. It doesn't mean that it's level…

This is not true. VW fully owns AID which is developing its level 4 stack. VW is also invested in Argo

simfoo is right, Argo.ai is essentially a joint venture of ford and VW at this point, to the tune of billions of dollars invested. https://techcrunch.com/2019/07/12/vw-invests-2-6-billion-in-...

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#158

Post by dmortin »

lostlogin wrote: post #134
robbrown451 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have to disagree. Most of the value is in taxi services, where you get dropped off / picked up exactly where you want, there is no need to dedicate so much land and structures to parking, there is no need to have cars sit idle for 95% of their existence, and no need to search for parking spots and walk long distances. Of course, I live in a city, where parking is a major pain. But the other things still hold. It it…

> Most of the value is in taxi services I’m imagining how gross a taxi would be that doesn’t have a driver to provide passengers a low level of behaviour moderation.

If the taxi is soiled then the next passenger indicates this via the app. The taxi is sent for cleaning and the previous passenger is charged for the cleaning. Also, there will be cameras inside in case it has to be proven who made the car dirty.

If people have to pay the cleaning bill they will be careful not to make a mess.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#159

Post by superkuh »

bstar77 wrote: post #42
lern_too_spel wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Staying inside a lane isn't the hard problem.

The point is that (primarily) the road needs to be smart, not the car. There should ideally be a synergy between the car and road, but the road has to be the primary vector to guide the car.

This backfires badly in places with cold winter climates where the offical road markings and edges become obscured due to snow and ice for days and sometimes seasons (road edge creep) at a time.

Human drivers don't follow the official lane markings because they can't be seen. They follow the paths in the snow everyone else has packed down. These paths often diverge from the road markings or any sort of absolute positioning system.

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