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Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

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Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#61

Post by listenallyall »

rgbrenner wrote: post #23
dx034 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's the CEO of the self driving car division. I'm pretty sure he's well aware of their tech.

Here's a summary of his entire background in order: Formula 1 engineer for many years; Technical director for a Le Mans Prototype vehicle; Head of VWs self driving division for the past 1 year. He has no software background... he specializes in making gas cars go fast. He has no idea how to make a self driving car.. and honestly, why would we think he would? He hasn't exactly been pioneering vision systems, or anythi…

Jeff Bezos never worked at Barnes & Noble or Borders. What does he know about selling books?

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#62

Post by mattlutze »

robbrown451 wrote: post #54
waynecochran wrote: post #43

The technology is not the only problem. The lawyers that are defending every dead body, and there will be dead bodies, that will sink self-driving cars. Even if everyone is 95% safer with self-driving cars, those that are killed by a self-driving car (in combo with a public that is easily swayed with non-objective arguments) will be hard to dismiss.

I don't understand this. If there are 1/20th the amount of deaths, how is that going to sink self driving cars?

Reactionary legislation is a risk to the industry.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#63

Post by mobilefriendly »

waynecochran wrote: post #43

The technology is not the only problem. The lawyers that are defending every dead body, and there will be dead bodies, that will sink self-driving cars. Even if everyone is 95% safer with self-driving cars, those that are killed by a self-driving car (in combo with a public that is easily swayed with non-objective arguments) will be hard to dismiss.

That works both ways, though. Once self-driving is proven, the higher accident rates from human-driving will become a greater liability. "Why were you driving yourself at night instead of engaging autopilot?!?"

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#64

Post by Someone »

shrubble wrote: post #8

If we put a wire in the road or maybe rfid tags every 40 feet, we could easily have self driving cars. However that would mean that everyone would have access to it. The idea of self driving cars now is, a winner take all situation where whichever funded effort that succeeds, generates outsized profits from licensing or going public at a high valuation.

I don’t think it will be winner takes all. I expect competitors to be relatively close, and may not even be clear who is the winner. One brand may do better in cities, another on highways, etc.

That will affect how outsized the profits will be.

Also, because of politics, I expect there to be separate geographical winners, at least in China and not-China.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#65

Post by bobthepanda »

mattlutze wrote: post #55
wwweston wrote: post #32

Opinion: level 5 autonomy would be cool, but it's not where most of the value of self-driving cars is. Most of the value in being able to travel by auto without attention is in trips longer than 15 minutes. Commutes, tourism, vacations. Shipping. Most of which is certainly highway driving. If it's possible to automate highway driving under most conditions (and safely transition either to a stop or human-piloting when…

There's a fantastic amount of value in cities and urban areas. Self-driving cars can work as a massive network to reduce or eliminate congestion and give people back hundreds of millions of hours spent stuck in traffic. https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/22/us/traffic-commute-gridlo... They can also, if Level 5 becomes a thing, reduce traffic collisions. And if they all end up electric, through route optimization they c…

How would they "reduce or eliminate congestion"? Congestion is inherently caused by too many people trying to go to or through the same place at the same time. That's not possible without reducing the amount of people trying to travel during a given time period in a given place.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#66

Post by lukifer »

waynecochran wrote: post #43

The technology is not the only problem. The lawyers that are defending every dead body, and there will be dead bodies, that will sink self-driving cars. Even if everyone is 95% safer with self-driving cars, those that are killed by a self-driving car (in combo with a public that is easily swayed with non-objective arguments) will be hard to dismiss.

You are correct; the public won’t accept the technology until it’s at least as safe statistically as air travel (and even then, there’ll be pushback in response to specific inevitable tragedies).

However, I think the profit incentives of the trucking industry will manage to carve out some regulatory exceptions; something like “freight trucks can self-drive between 11a and 5a on these specific Nebraska highways, with warning signs on both roads and vehicles”. This sort of lobbying will be the thin end of the wedge for both iterating the tech, and normalizing its acceptance.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#67

Post by thanhhaimai »

shrubble wrote: post #8

If we put a wire in the road or maybe rfid tags every 40 feet, we could easily have self driving cars. However that would mean that everyone would have access to it. The idea of self driving cars now is, a winner take all situation where whichever funded effort that succeeds, generates outsized profits from licensing or going public at a high valuation.

Traffic inductive loop counter costs a couple thousands to install. I don't have a source for the detailed cost breakdown, but I can imagine the majority of the cost is labor and digging up/filling the road since the sensor itself should be less than a thousand.

Now imagine we're doing that 1000 times per mile, like what you're suggesting. Even if the device is free (both initial cost and maintenance) it's just too cost inhibited.

I think we shouldn't assume that the reason is some malicious intention behind "However that would mean that everyone would have access to it." It could simply be that the idea is not economical.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#68

Post by Digory »

DasIch wrote: post #48
wwweston wrote: post #32

Opinion: level 5 autonomy would be cool, but it's not where most of the value of self-driving cars is. Most of the value in being able to travel by auto without attention is in trips longer than 15 minutes. Commutes, tourism, vacations. Shipping. Most of which is certainly highway driving. If it's possible to automate highway driving under most conditions (and safely transition either to a stop or human-piloting when…

This 80% solution already exists in the form of trains and airplanes. Self-driving cars that only go 80% of the way would compete against those forms of transportation which have established business models, networks and in the case of trains are subsidized in a way that self-driving cars likely won't ever be. Additionally the key advantage of cars is flexibility, not having to figure out how to get to or from the tr…

I suppose the car crowd would say environmental factors tilt toward cars over airplanes.

In the US, trains are for freight. It would cost too much to create a new passenger rail network compared to automating existing intercity roads.

Now, increasing the throughput of rail using self-driving trains could make a bundle in the US.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#70

Post by temporaryvector »

ogre_codes wrote: post #21

This is arguably one of the biggest competitive advantages Tesla has. For $47,000 I can get an EV from Tesla with a better self-driving system[1] than a $100k Audi, BMW, Mercedes, or Lexus. I haven’t pulled the trigger on a Tesla yet, but I can’t imagine paying $40,000+ on a new car that isn’t a Tesla right now. For many people Tesla has made EV and self-driving table-stakes and nobody else is delivering on that. [1]…

>I can’t imagine paying $40,000+ on a new car that isn’t a Tesla right now

Aside from the fact that the Tesla is not available where I live, if I was only going to own one car, it would not be a Tesla. A Tesla (or any other EV, really) does about 80% of what I need a car for, so it would be perfect to buy as a second car for me, to be used most of the time and have the other car be a backup for when I really need to.

If I had to settle for only one car, it would probably have to be something like a Chevy Volt, which I am quite sad got discontinued. Even then, that would get me about 95% of the way there.

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