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Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

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Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#91

Post by rapind »

bobthepanda wrote: post #56
wwweston wrote: post #32

Opinion: level 5 autonomy would be cool, but it's not where most of the value of self-driving cars is. Most of the value in being able to travel by auto without attention is in trips longer than 15 minutes. Commutes, tourism, vacations. Shipping. Most of which is certainly highway driving. If it's possible to automate highway driving under most conditions (and safely transition either to a stop or human-piloting when…

> If it's possible to automate highway driving under most conditions (and safely transition either to a stop or human-piloting when those conditions aren't met), then at least 80% of the value is there. Given that planes, which rely on a class of specifically trained professionals with minimum hour requirements, still have issues with this from time to time, I don't think this is a realistic thing for cars. Driving s…

And yet air travel is far safer than road travel and they embraced autopilot long ago.

The problem with complete automation is how accidents are perceived. Probably a good thing considering how low the bar is right now for road safety. Being killed by a robot's mistake is perceived far worse than by human error.

I think a middle ground like autopilot on the highway could significantly improve safety while still accommodating perception issues.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#93

Post by ghaff »

Edmond wrote: post #77

Maybe this exec should be fired for incompetence and lack of vision. While self-driving is obviously a challenging problem, I am still bemused by people who think "it will never happen". An auto exec who believes that, is unfit for the job and definitely unfit for the future of that job.

I’d probably never say “never” to this sort of question. I can believe many decades out though.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#94

Post by DasIch »

dpflan wrote: post #81
Digory wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suppose the car crowd would say environmental factors tilt toward cars over airplanes. In the US, trains are for freight. It would cost too much to create a new passenger rail network compared to automating existing intercity roads. Now, increasing the throughput of rail using self-driving trains could make a bundle in the US.

Self driving trains seems like an excellent problem space. Are you aware of any companies working on this?

Self driving trains already exist: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_train_operation

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#95

Post by deltron3030 »

wwweston wrote: post #32

Opinion: level 5 autonomy would be cool, but it's not where most of the value of self-driving cars is. Most of the value in being able to travel by auto without attention is in trips longer than 15 minutes. Commutes, tourism, vacations. Shipping. Most of which is certainly highway driving. If it's possible to automate highway driving under most conditions (and safely transition either to a stop or human-piloting when…

Onboarding cars onto trains in a driver friendly way should also be considered. This way you don't exclude non self driving cars, and still have good coverage (taking into account that railway systems aren't far behind highway coverage in many countries).

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#96

Post by robbrown451 »

threeseed wrote: post #86
robbrown451 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have to disagree. Most of the value is in taxi services, where you get dropped off / picked up exactly where you want, there is no need to dedicate so much land and structures to parking, there is no need to have cars sit idle for 95% of their existence, and no need to search for parking spots and walk long distances. Of course, I live in a city, where parking is a major pain. But the other things still hold. It it…

I actually think autonomous taxi services will be niche. Think about Uber cars today. Their entire value proposition centres around them breaking parking laws in order to pick you up. Now the liability for that behaviour is with the driver. In an autonomous car the liability would be Uber which is why they won't do it. An Uber that needs to look for parking in order to pick you up is never going to work in most busy…

I don't doubt that things take time to adjust. But when it makes a lot more economic sense to take a cab compared to owning a car and driving it (after all, the main reasons cabs aren't all that economical today is the requirement of paying a driver while you just sit there), there will be less cars parked on the road and therefore it will be easier to have places where the cars can pull over and pick up / drop off.

Anyway, "people are willing to break the law but companies aren't" seems a really weird reason to stick with the status quo over something far more efficient.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#97

Post by baybal2 »

mattlutze wrote: post #55
wwweston wrote: post #32

Opinion: level 5 autonomy would be cool, but it's not where most of the value of self-driving cars is. Most of the value in being able to travel by auto without attention is in trips longer than 15 minutes. Commutes, tourism, vacations. Shipping. Most of which is certainly highway driving. If it's possible to automate highway driving under most conditions (and safely transition either to a stop or human-piloting when…

There's a fantastic amount of value in cities and urban areas. Self-driving cars can work as a massive network to reduce or eliminate congestion and give people back hundreds of millions of hours spent stuck in traffic. https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/22/us/traffic-commute-gridlo... They can also, if Level 5 becomes a thing, reduce traffic collisions. And if they all end up electric, through route optimization they c…

This is where the Chinese companies are digging. Instead of a self-driving car, they are trying to make a car driven by an external server.

Half of the work on "self"-driving is actually traffic dispatch.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#98

Post by Geee »

Volkswagen doesn't develop self-driving tech. They use Mobileye's solution like everyone expect Tesla, Waymo and GM/Cruise. They aren't really in the position to make that argument.

Level 5 means that the car can drive autonomously > 95% of the time, and it will absolutely be possible. Level 4/5 distinction doesn't really make any sense once the autonomy gets beyond certain percentage. It doesn't mean that it's level 4 until it hits 100% (which is impossible).

Level 5 car is designed to drive in all conditions, but there are always statistically unlikely corner cases or situations that require high-level decision making, which the car can't handle by itself. A single driver may never hit such case, and for them the experience is full self-driving.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#99

Post by rapind »

threeseed wrote: post #86
robbrown451 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have to disagree. Most of the value is in taxi services, where you get dropped off / picked up exactly where you want, there is no need to dedicate so much land and structures to parking, there is no need to have cars sit idle for 95% of their existence, and no need to search for parking spots and walk long distances. Of course, I live in a city, where parking is a major pain. But the other things still hold. It it…

I actually think autonomous taxi services will be niche. Think about Uber cars today. Their entire value proposition centres around them breaking parking laws in order to pick you up. Now the liability for that behaviour is with the driver. In an autonomous car the liability would be Uber which is why they won't do it. An Uber that needs to look for parking in order to pick you up is never going to work in most busy…

I wonder though if autonomous taxi's would simply highlight the parking issues and increase demand for better parking solutions (like no parking, just autonomous taxi lanes).

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#100

Post by braythwayt »

waynecochran wrote: post #43

The technology is not the only problem. The lawyers that are defending every dead body, and there will be dead bodies, that will sink self-driving cars. Even if everyone is 95% safer with self-driving cars, those that are killed by a self-driving car (in combo with a public that is easily swayed with non-objective arguments) will be hard to dismiss.

We could say that now about automobiles. If I were to get into an accident and then have lawyers for the other vehicle, plus everybody stuck in traffic behind me also sending their lawyers after me, I’d never drive.

Insurance solved that problem, both by eliminating the possibility of a catastrophic financial loss, and by creating a buffer between me and all those lawyers.

I predict that insurance will solve the lawyer problem for self-driving cars as well. At some point, it will cost me $5,000 a year to drive my own car, and $500 to let it do all the driving.

And on top of all that, if my car drives itself into an accident, the lawyers will talk to my insurance company, not to me. I see the insurance companies as the enabler for this tech. And they will want to enable it, it will put them in control of the market.

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