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Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

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Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Volkswagen ID.3 will be ~30k€ not 30k$, so about 33k$. Tesla model 3 is ~40k$ not 50k$. So it’s only 7k$ difference, not 20k$ as you wrongly assume.

Still not coming to the US? https://ww.electrek.co/2019/12/13/vw-not-launching-id3-elect...

The ID.3 isn't but the bigger ID.4 will be:

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/volkswagen-id4-electric-s...

It's supposed to get its official reveal in the next month or so.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#382
post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

Owner of a 3 (performance, all options) built in July 2018. I was also nervous about build quality. My personal experience has been pretty great, however. Only a minor issue which the mobile repair truck came out and fixed in my company's parking lot. I didn't even have to go to a service center. Style is all subjective however there is a real minimalist chic to the 3 interior which I have come to love. In my wife's…

My P3d is also from July 18 and is the lowest VIN of any that I know about, less than 55500, any chance yours is lower?

On topic, I've had a few trim issues fixed at the SC which was no cost and not much bother. Otherwise it's amazing, I really would not trade it for any other car.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#383
post #266
post #249

In the US, what sells the most (sadly) are pickup trucks and SUVs. The numbers aren't even close. The big automakers here know this, and have tailored their product lines accordingly. Ford is basically kept afloat singularly by F-series pickup sales, and have cancelled many sedans entirely. They have an entire range of different sized trucks and SUVs for every market segment. Same with Chevrolet. Now pan over to Tesl…

People have been saying this for years. However, none of the other players have built a compelling product with widespread appeal or adoption. The E-Tron? iPace? Taycan? All have been more or less dead on arrival from an adoption and sales standpoint. Honda announced recently that they will be focusing on hybrid technology, not full electric. Toyota is backing their Hydrogen Fuel Cell technology. GM has the Bolt, a s…

> The E-Tron? iPace? Taycan? All have been more or less dead on arrival from an adoption and sales standpoint.

These are expensive luxury cars. They're never going to see high volume.

Jaguar sells about 76,000 cars a year in total across all of their models. Porsche expects to sell about 20,000 Taycans a year. Both the Audi e-tron and the Jaguar I-Pace outsell the Model X and the Model S in Europe:

https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2019/12/europe-november-2019.h...

If you want volume then have a look at Volkswagen ID.3 sales at the end of this year in Europe. It may well end up being the top selling EV in Europe even though it'll only be on sale for half the year at best.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#384
post #249

In the US, what sells the most (sadly) are pickup trucks and SUVs. The numbers aren't even close. The big automakers here know this, and have tailored their product lines accordingly. Ford is basically kept afloat singularly by F-series pickup sales, and have cancelled many sedans entirely. They have an entire range of different sized trucks and SUVs for every market segment. Same with Chevrolet. Now pan over to Tesl…

To the degree that some major motor companies are still investing in hydrogen for passenger vehicles, Tesla might actually be undervalued. Hydrogen makes no sense for cars. Zero sense whatsoever when we have decent BEVs. Synthetic petrol makes more sense technically than hydrogen but has all the non-climate drawbacks of fossil fuels and is twice as expensive (with extremely low round-trip efficiency compared to a tru…

> Its very low efficiency strongly limits its mass market uptake

The Taycan is an expensive sports car. It will never have mass market uptake regardless of its efficiency.

The Macan is Porsche's best selling model because it's the cheapest Porsche you can buy and it's a compact SUV which is a popular body style.

> expensive charge, slow charge even with the 800V

The Taycan comes with three years of free charging on some charging networks. In any case, charging costs are the least of your worries relative to the cost of the car.

The Taycan achieves 80% state of charge in 22.5 minutes. That's hardly slow.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#385
post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet If you look at actual vehicle sales, I'd say this quote is optimistic at best. Tesla is still very much fighting an uphill battle in terms of market share.

Optimistic? In the US, Tesla is selling an order of magnitude more cars per month than value EV's like the Leaf and two orders of magnitude more than "Tesla killers" like the iPace or eTron. https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-s...

Tesla isn't selling 1.3 million cars per year yet like Ford, so yes, optimistic. I wasn't speaking about strictly the EV market. Why would the big automakers need to compete in the EV market when EV adoption numbers still only amount to a rounding error in terms of the big companies' overall sales?

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#386
post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Optimistic? In the US, Tesla is selling an order of magnitude more cars per month than value EV's like the Leaf and two orders of magnitude more than "Tesla killers" like the iPace or eTron. https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-s...

Tesla isn't selling 1.3 million cars per year yet like Ford, so yes, optimistic. I wasn't speaking about strictly the EV market. Why would the big automakers need to compete in the EV market when EV adoption numbers still only amount to a rounding error in terms of the big companies' overall sales?

Why? Because it obviously won't be a rounding error in a few years time.

2 reasons.

1) We have to do something about climate change. Doesn't mean we will, but more and more countries besides Norway will get serious about it.

2) At some point BEV's will be price competitive with ICE. The $40K Tesla Cybertruck is cheaper than a medium duty crew cab from legacy manufacturers.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#387
post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a condo building, each parking space is deeded to the owner as a limited common element for the exclusive use of the owner. The charger in the parking space is owned by the owner of the parking space and the electrical connection runs to a utility closet that the electrical utility controls. In a new building, you just design the electrical system so this is a non-issue. In an existing building, it's not so simple…

Condo associations that want to solve this can. It isn't a technical problem and it won't slow down EV adoption very much. It is kind of like adding satellite TV and plenty of HOAs have figured that one out despite not having it wired into the building. Yes, specific organizations will be slower than others, but as the demand ramps up more and more people will want this solved in their own HOA and they'll start getti…

People on our condo board have owned Teslas for years. We are a building that is out in front of it. Coax cable doesn't carry 240V power. This isn't something you can hand-wave away.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chevy and Hyundai already offer EVs with better range than the Model 3 SR+ at a lower cost.

Too bad no one cares about them and no one is buying them.

Yeah, it's a shame. I have a Bolt and absolutely love it.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#389
post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla isn't selling 1.3 million cars per year yet like Ford, so yes, optimistic. I wasn't speaking about strictly the EV market. Why would the big automakers need to compete in the EV market when EV adoption numbers still only amount to a rounding error in terms of the big companies' overall sales?

Why? Because it obviously won't be a rounding error in a few years time. 2 reasons. 1) We have to do something about climate change. Doesn't mean we will, but more and more countries besides Norway will get serious about it. 2) At some point BEV's will be price competitive with ICE. The $40K Tesla Cybertruck is cheaper than a medium duty crew cab from legacy manufacturers.

1) EV's will not solve this problem

2) Price is only a very small part of the adoption equation, people happily pay $80k for ICE pickup trucks for instance.

3) You didn't add this but I will - it's not clear the EV platform is the preferred alternative to the ICE for consumers yet, as evidenced by overall global vehicle sales.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#390
post #374
post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Corolla gets 32mpg. Assume 200,000 miles over the life of the corolla, that’s 6250 gallons of fuel. $2.79/gallon where I live for $17437 of fuel over the life of the corolla. $19600+17437=$37k The Tesla requires 50,000 kWh to drive 200,000 miles. At $0.08/kWh (what I’m paying), that’s just $4000 in electricity. $36k + $4k = $40k That’s surprisingly close for a Tesla Model 3 versus a Corolla.

8 cents per kw/hr is nearly the cheapest rate in America. And most people will not be on track to drive 200k miles in their car before the loan is paid off. Which leaves them upfronting a very large percentage of the savings.

https://www.srpnet.com/prices/home/electricvehicle.aspx

Yes, Arizona has good rates.

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