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Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

bloomberg.com

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Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#371

Post by smiley1437 »

Fjolsvith wrote: post #360
njarboe wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I like the idea of Hold mode, not regularly using the brake will cause the breaking reflex action to fade with time. You really want to have a good "slam the breaks" reflex if you drive a car On the other hand, maybe Tesla feels their automatic systems will break better than humans and this is not really a problem to worry about.

I'm not a Tesla driver, but I would guess the Hold mode doesn't turn off "slam the brakes" when the driver needs to stop fast.

I think njarboe feels that it is the human reflex to 'slam the brakes' will fade if the human doesn't use it enough in 'hold' mode, not the mechanism in the car.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#372

Post by njarboe »

smiley1437 wrote: post #371
Fjolsvith wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not a Tesla driver, but I would guess the Hold mode doesn't turn off "slam the brakes" when the driver needs to stop fast.

I think njarboe feels that it is the human reflex to 'slam the brakes' will fade if the human doesn't use it enough in 'hold' mode, not the mechanism in the car.

Correct. Moving your foot from the accelerator to the brake is a much practiced motion and your body can do it very quickly without much thought. I rarely use cruse control, so when I do and think I might want to brake soon, I get nervous. I don't really know where the brake is. At that point I put my foot back on the accelerator and now my body knows how to hit the brake again.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#373

Post by xbmcuser »

genS3 wrote: post #327
boardwaalk wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We’re about one step away in battery tech (which Tesla leads on, among other things (efficiency, integration, etc) from a mid range electric car be upfront cost equivalent with an mid range gas car. Once that’s there, plus charging infrastructure (which is rapidly coming up) the other benefits (maintenance, torque, quiet, fuel costs, etc) will be front and center for every car buyer making the choice between the two…

do they have a roadmap for charging infrastructure? What if they sell millions and it takes 20min to charge knowing that most people will charge at similar times when going to work?

This assumption is wrong that everyone needs to charge before going to work. Once people started hitting queues at charging stations they will start charging at home over night. Though personally I think work place charging stations should be promoted where electric cars get charged at work using solar energy instead of at night at home using fossil fuel based electricity.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#374

Post by jjeaff »

jmpman wrote: post #350
lamp_book wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A new Model 3 is 36k, a new Corolla is 19.6k MSRP. Realistically you can get the Toyota for less than half the price of the Tesla. I am not convinced that gap can be closed in 5 years, much less 2.

Corolla gets 32mpg. Assume 200,000 miles over the life of the corolla, that’s 6250 gallons of fuel. $2.79/gallon where I live for $17437 of fuel over the life of the corolla. $19600+17437=$37k The Tesla requires 50,000 kWh to drive 200,000 miles. At $0.08/kWh (what I’m paying), that’s just $4000 in electricity. $36k + $4k = $40k That’s surprisingly close for a Tesla Model 3 versus a Corolla.

8 cents per kw/hr is nearly the cheapest rate in America.

And most people will not be on track to drive 200k miles in their car before the loan is paid off. Which leaves them upfronting a very large percentage of the savings.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#375

Post by xbmcuser »

jmpman wrote: post #350
lamp_book wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A new Model 3 is 36k, a new Corolla is 19.6k MSRP. Realistically you can get the Toyota for less than half the price of the Tesla. I am not convinced that gap can be closed in 5 years, much less 2.

Corolla gets 32mpg. Assume 200,000 miles over the life of the corolla, that’s 6250 gallons of fuel. $2.79/gallon where I live for $17437 of fuel over the life of the corolla. $19600+17437=$37k The Tesla requires 50,000 kWh to drive 200,000 miles. At $0.08/kWh (what I’m paying), that’s just $4000 in electricity. $36k + $4k = $40k That’s surprisingly close for a Tesla Model 3 versus a Corolla.

Current electric car prices already make economic sense for car fleets where maintenance and fuel saving make it cheaper. One of the reasons delivery companies have been interested in electric vans.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#376

Post by jppope »

lamp_book wrote: post #346
jppope wrote: post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not optimism, it's arithmetic: Tesla is stealing units from the other car companies. The other car companies require those unit sales to keep the prices the where they are otherwise they have to raise prices (same goes for insurance). Sure maybe for the next 2-5 years people will do business as normal but are you really going to buy a Corolla for $30K when you can get a Tesla Model 3 for $30K? That is what will…

A new Model 3 is 36k, a new Corolla is 19.6k MSRP. Realistically you can get the Toyota for less than half the price of the Tesla. I am not convinced that gap can be closed in 5 years, much less 2.

I spec'd it at the top of the line Corolla ~25K. Change it to a Camry if we're getting nit-picky

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#377

Post by clouddrover »

manicdee wrote: post #363
notJim wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems really optimistic about the adoption of electric cars. I suspect adoption will be drastically slower than you're imagining, and hybrids as well as gas vehicles will remain relevant for a long time still. Toyota of course has the top-selling hybrid, and introduced a plug-in hybrid version recently. Ford was in the #2 spot and Toyota was again in the #3. Honda takes #5. I think the thesis of these automakers…

Tesla has already sold every car they can manufacture, and their entry price is $40k-ish in the USA. Other manufacturers are limiting how many BEVs they produce, and still managing to sell most of the ones they build even though they are universally objectively worse than any Tesla offering. Tesla Model 3 is the best selling BEV in every market it participates in (not sure about numbers compared to PHEVs). It is sell…

> Tesla Model 3 is the best selling BEV in every market it participates in

No, that's incorrect.

The Model 3 is the second best seller in France: https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2019/12/france-november-2019.h...

It's the third best seller in Germany: https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2019/12/germany-november-2019....

And it's the 9th best selling BEV in China: https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2019/12/china-november-2019-up...

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#378

Post by clouddrover »

addicted wrote: post #180
zwischenzug wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is hindsight talking. I remember thinking (and hearing): 'Way too expensive' 'I want a tactile keyboard' 'Nice, but I don't need one' and so on.

The only commonwealthidespread complaint was about the lack of 3G and copy/paste. However, the overwhelming response to the iPhone was extremely positive. Even from non Apple sources. RIM didn’t think the iPhone was possible when it was first released. Google instantly changed the direction of their Android project when the iPhone was released.

> The only commonwealthidespread complaint

Maybe also complaints about bad autocompletion?

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#380

Post by clouddrover »

aerovistae wrote: post #101
woofcat wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>From my seat, that really remains to be seen. The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet. They may get there eventually, but Tesla has it now. This somewhat reminds me of BlackBerry. They're basically the only game in town right now, and thus maintain a market advantage. However as larger companies shift to EV's as the technology matures how will Tesla be able to maintain i…

No! No, no, no. This will not happen. It's a total pipe dream. These ancient companies, so set in their ways, who have been incrementally making tiny adjustments to their cars for decades, will never "suddenly leap forward" to come out with something more advanced and more appealing than a Tesla. Tesla isn't the blackberry here, the other car companies are! You're basically the guy in 2008 saying "sure Apple has an a…

> These ancient companies will never "suddenly leap forward" to come out with something more advanced and more appealing than a Tesla.

Volkswagen are doing exactly that. They have many BEVs models coming out this year across their multiple car brands (such as VW, Audi, SEAT, Skoda, Porsche).

The Porsche Taycan is the only 800 volt EV on the market today. The Volkswagen ID.3 has similar range to a Model 3 at a lower price point.

Even Audi's headlights are interesting. They're essentially projectors fast enough to run animations: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2ara0My_Yg

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