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Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

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Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#361

Post by woodandsteel »

hobofan wrote: post #275
buttersbrian wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't this ignoring other parts of the world? Europe single handidly can drive this market. Also large portions of asia that would love affordable electric vehicles (not ness "cars") for their densely populated cities. Never mind the short range cargo vehicle market throughout the world.

Europe currently faces a bit of an chicken and egg problem with the EV market. European manufacturers don't produce meaningful EVs which results in no subsidies that would accelerate the market (or those subsidies are also available to hybrids in their lineup which won't be driven in EV mode). In turn they don't have any incentive to move forward with their EV lineup, as most people are loyal to their local manufactu…

The EU has introduced fleet CO2 emission standards that are going to go up every year. As a consequence the European manufacturers are scrambling to design and produce ev's.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#362

Post by woodandsteel »

woofcat wrote: post #64
kemitche wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> who can compete with Tesla From my seat, that really remains to be seen. The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet. They may get there eventually, but Tesla has it now. Regarding valuation, one point I read elsewhere is that Tesla does a lot more in-house, which adds to the valuation, whereas the existing companies will buy a lot of their parts and/or contract out work. I…

>From my seat, that really remains to be seen. The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet. They may get there eventually, but Tesla has it now. This somewhat reminds me of BlackBerry. They're basically the only game in town right now, and thus maintain a market advantage. However as larger companies shift to EV's as the technology matures how will Tesla be able to maintain i…

You're implying that the legacy manufactures could come up with some radically new sort of ev that would be as superior to Tesla cars as the iphone was to the BlackBerry. But the legacy manufacturers are already producing and designing ev's, and they are all inferior to Teslas.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#363

Post by manicdee »

notJim wrote: post #174
jppope wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

This seems really optimistic about the adoption of electric cars. I suspect adoption will be drastically slower than you're imagining, and hybrids as well as gas vehicles will remain relevant for a long time still. Toyota of course has the top-selling hybrid, and introduced a plug-in hybrid version recently. Ford was in the #2 spot and Toyota was again in the #3. Honda takes #5. I think the thesis of these automakers…

Tesla has already sold every car they can manufacture, and their entry price is $40k-ish in the USA. Other manufacturers are limiting how many BEVs they produce, and still managing to sell most of the ones they build even though they are universally objectively worse than any Tesla offering.

Tesla Model 3 is the best selling BEV in every market it participates in (not sure about numbers compared to PHEVs). It is selling in comparable quantities to ICE vehicles in the same price range.

A significant number of people buying Model 3 are upgrading from cars costing half the price.

There is little to no indication that EV adoption will slow down (before pointing to a drop in Model 3 sales in the USA consider that the one factory supplies the entire world outside China).

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#364

Post by tpowell »

jppope wrote: post #55
oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

I still like reading the essay [1] from former Vice Chairman and Head of Product Development of General Motors Bob Lutz from time to time: “Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap.”

I personally have bought my last internal combustion engine car. I had planned to purchase another vehicle by now, but will wait for the Model 3 (perhaps another?) to mature a bit then go electric. I’m curious how many others out there have changed their calculus, too. I think it’s very analogous to iPhone’s rise, which must account for the stock.

[1] https://www.autonews.com/article/20171105/INDUSTRY_REDESIGNE...

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#365

Post by hogFeast »

sigstoat wrote: post #94
hogFeast wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Short interest was highest at the bottom, and is much lower now (just generally, changes are going to correlate with price)...~45m in July, and is now ~25m (which is where it was at the start of the year). So 20m shares have been called in...daily volume is about ~9-10m so no short squeeze (afaik, TSLA is pretty easy to short because it is owned by so many retail investors...total shares outstanding is ~175m so turni…

> afaik, TSLA is pretty easy to short because it is owned by so many retail investors... i didn't think retail investor held stock was normally loaned out. in fact, i thought it was only loaned when you had it in a margin account, and had gone negative? whereas the big index funds report how much extra they earn by loaning out stocks. (probably hand-waving over terminology. apologies.)

Nope. The exact case is going to depend on your situation (some brokers have stock loan programs, some put you in these programs automatically, some don't). But yes, it is easy to borrow shares with more retail investors (I think the borrow for Tesla is like 2% or something).

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#366

Post by hogFeast »

_ea1k wrote: post #202
hogFeast wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think your conclusion is inaccurate at all. Yes, enterprise value reflects total business value...but the EV of these companies is pretty similar given the discrepancies in actual profit. Part of Telsa makes sense, they are staking out a corner of the market that isn't big now but will be in the future. But the price you are getting for this risk makes zero sense (there was a very non-zero chance of them goin…

> The upside is whatever Ford or GM is now...and they are worth more than that. I like Tesla as a car company and agree with this sentiment as an investor. There's a reason that I sold my shares, and also a reason that I never had very many. :) Having said that, I'd like to add Toyota and BMW to your list of comps. BMW in particular demonstrates that there may be at least some potential for upside, IMO.

BMW are valuable because their labour is priced in a currency that is very weak (same is true of Toyota but to a far lesser extent). I don't think any of these companies are worth owning (again, there are just far easier games to play than megacaps).

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#367

Post by tachyonbeam »

olivermarks wrote: post #323
tachyonbeam wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no way this adds 300K to the price of a house, and it does not take 75 minutes to charge a Tesla, more like 15-30 minutes at a supercharger depending on your state of charge. Stop the FUD.

Supercharger technology Tesla logo at Supercharger station Tesla supercharging stations charge with up to 150 kW of power distributed between two cars with a maximum of 150[13][14] kW per car, depending on version.[15][6][16] They take about 20 minutes to charge to 50%, 40 minutes to charge to 80%, and 75 minutes to 100% on the original 85 kWh Model S. The charging stations provide high-power direct-current (DC) char…

1. You will never be at 0% when you hit the supercharger.

2. You don't necessarily need to charge up to 100%

3. Supercharger V3 can reach 250KW, and the Tesla Model 3 supports this. The next gen Model S will as well.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#368

Post by Tempest1981 »

genS3 wrote: post #327
boardwaalk wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We’re about one step away in battery tech (which Tesla leads on, among other things (efficiency, integration, etc) from a mid range electric car be upfront cost equivalent with an mid range gas car. Once that’s there, plus charging infrastructure (which is rapidly coming up) the other benefits (maintenance, torque, quiet, fuel costs, etc) will be front and center for every car buyer making the choice between the two…

do they have a roadmap for charging infrastructure? What if they sell millions and it takes 20min to charge knowing that most people will charge at similar times when going to work?

This test in LA is interesting, using existing power infrastructure:

https://electrek.co/2019/11/13/la-adds-hundreds-of-ev-charge...

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#369

Post by Tempest1981 »

tigershark wrote: post #337
ilikehurdles wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

VW group is going very heavily for mainstream EVs, seriously ramping up production, and the models don't look like the toy concept EVs of yore either. Maybe Audi and BMW have to think about what it means to make a competitive EV since their price-points are similar to Tesla's, but VW proper will be pushing EVs at the ~$30k MSRP range. They don't need to be more advanced than a Tesla at that price because there is no…

Volkswagen ID.3 will be ~30k€ not 30k$, so about 33k$. Tesla model 3 is ~40k$ not 50k$. So it’s only 7k$ difference, not 20k$ as you wrongly assume.

Still not coming to the US?

https://ww.electrek.co/2019/12/13/vw-not-launching-id3-elect...

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#370

Post by cmonnow »

Fjolsvith wrote: post #358
d1zzy wrote: post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That may work in suburban America but I'm not so sure about the rest of the world. Most of my life I've lived in apartment complexes (US) / blocks of flats (Europe) where there was no car charging possibility when parking. It would require huge infrastructure changes to allow most people to be able to charge at home and work, this is different from gas powered vehicles where you need a relatively small number of (cen…

I can see charging trucks going around all night and topping vehicles up mobile resupply like.

charging trucks that run diesel generators ?
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