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Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

bloomberg.com

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Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#141

Post by sixQuarks »

oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

I actually don't consider Tesla a car company. They are a software company with world-leading expertise in energy production and storage. Vehicles are currently what they're mostly focused in applying this technology to, but that will change in the future. The stock price reflects the likelihood that Elon will accomplish the goals he has set out.

If they solve self-driving, that by itself will be worth over 100 billion dollars.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#142

Post by pbreit »

oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

Here's a better comparison (another company where owners love their cars):

Tesla built 35x as many cars as Ferrari and is valued at 3x.

Tesla trades at 4x sales, Ferrari at 8x.

Having been in business longer is not always advantage and is frequently a disadvantage.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#144

Post by rightbyte »

freepor wrote: post #83
londons_explore wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A company with real time telemetry from all cars all the time ought to blow a traditional automaker out of the water with reliability. They can do things like measure vibration of a particular circuit board across the fleet, compare that to the design specs, and be able to predict failure probability a long time ahead of real failures. In turn, they can then revise designs to avoid a failure mode that hasn't even occ…

Are boards actually this instrumented? Does each MOSFET have a temperature sensor onboard?

No they are not. Maybe one temp sensor per ECU.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#145

Post by pbreit »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #23
oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

If you google "ford enterprise value" and "tesla enterprise value" you get values of 156B and 86B, respectively. Stockholders are not the only people who have claims on the liquidation value and future profits of a company. Bondholders and pensioners do as well. Market cap != valuation.

That's a little miss-leading because Ford's EV includes a lot of debt for car loans & leases which tend to get paid back by someone else and are secured by the cars.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#146

Post by oiasdjfoiasd »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #69
aj7 wrote: post #34

The correction will be precipitous. There is no reason to believe that even at the 1M vehicle level, they can be so profitable, when engaged with direct competition with other experienced producers, to justify such a market capitalization. The same cost issues will affect all companies, and I believe some Tesla technical advantages will erode.

Agree. Their customers are those who are making bank on the bull market run we've been riding. If the market should fall, Tesla will fall hardest.

lol. some people will never learn.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#148

Post by zwischenzug »

_jal wrote: post #124
SmellyGeekBoy wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price iPhones couldn't run Flash (which powered all of the interactive content on the internet at the time), couldn't send MMS (which was the way everyone shared photos at the time) or run apps (which was how feature phones added functionality at the time). "Why on Earth would anyone want one of those!?" was a pretty common reaction, yet they still sold like hotc…

> "Why on Earth would anyone want one of those!?" That reaction really only came from makers of competing phones. (RIM execs famously refused to believe the battery life was possible, Balmer threw very unconvincing dismissals.) Everyone else was standing in line to buy one.

I think this is hindsight talking.

I remember thinking (and hearing):

'Way too expensive'

'I want a tactile keyboard'

'Nice, but I don't need one'

and so on.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#149

Post by sokoloff »

bdamm wrote: post #103
jansan wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

iPhones did not need a charging network. They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price, which made them even more desirable. But I just do not see average people who live in condos buy an EV anytime soon.

Then you need to look closer. A long range model 3 can go 310 miles and charge quickly at superchargers. Condo dwellers can basically treat this car just like a gas car with fewer fillup options. A lot of people should do the math on the model 3. The math is current car payment + 90% gas payment = new car payment on a model 3. The remaining 10% is what you pay for electricity.

Many people's car payment is $0.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#150

Post by bdamm »

logicIsTruth wrote: post #120
scrozier wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My wife has a model 3. I have a BMW 535i. I used to love my BMW. Now I beg my wife to drive the Tesla, because the BMW feels like a clunky dinosaur. I agree that Teslas are generally not the most beautiful cars, but the torque, the handling, the software-driven features, and the lack of gas station stops makes up for it, and more. Oh, and as a software guy, the self-driving stuff is really fun to watch evolve.

To be fair, European automotive is the most behind out of any.

We just got a model 3 a few weeks ago.

ALL gasoline cars now feel like dinosaurs. Even hybrids.

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