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Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

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Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#91

Post by hogFeast »

oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

I don't think your conclusion is inaccurate at all. Yes, enterprise value reflects total business value...but the EV of these companies is pretty similar given the discrepancies in actual profit.

Part of Telsa makes sense, they are staking out a corner of the market that isn't big now but will be in the future. But the price you are getting for this risk makes zero sense (there was a very non-zero chance of them going bust this year).

I actually knew one of the biggest active shareholders here, and the logic is really "hit and hope". Iirc, they have said publicly that they can see this going bust quite easily but they think the upside will pay off...well, I don't get it either. The upside is whatever Ford or GM is now...and they are worth more than that. As an investor, it isn't worth losing brain cells on this...easier ways to make money, way easier.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#92

Post by omgwtfbyobbq »

brenden2 wrote: post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

I have a May 2018 build, and the quality is better than my wife's last Audi, but there are still things that could be improved, mostly the interior rattles. At the same time, most of those would be covered up if there was an ICE droning on, so for all I know those were present in her car too and we never noticed them.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#93

Post by kemitche »

whatshisface wrote: post #38
taf2 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

so i have an x and when it rains we do sometimes get some water into the back seat when raising the trunk... but to keep this in perspective... the car is like an iphone compared to your flip phone. 2007 was a long time ago so maybe people forget just how impactful that phone was when people first tried it out. That is the exact same experience I have had when first owning and S and now an X. A minor issue like water…

I'll weigh in on the curmudgeon side. The knobs in my car were perfect from the day I bought it because they were optimized by engineers over decades. If there was ever a UI issue, it was corrected before I was born. Because the controls are physical I can operate them by touch and habit while focusing on the road. Years of driving have resulted in mental circuits that automatically detect stop signs and manage lane-…

> Years of driving have resulted in mental circuits that automatically detect stop signs and manage lane-keeping with zero conscious attention, just as easy as walking

I thought the same thing when I had an S a few years back. This was just the adaptive cruise control + lane holding days, and I figured it'd be nice for sure but not game changing.

I was entirely wrong. Sure, driving without AP on wasn't hard, but turning AP on made road trips and commuting 1000x more pleasant for me. Driving without AP may be habitual and ingrained, but it still occupies a certain amount of mental capacity to hold the line.

Being freed from that wasn't just about getting more time to look at scenery, either. With fewer brain cycles spent on mechanically maneuvering the car, I could spend those cycles better monitoring other vehicles for potential hazards (crazy drivers, etc.)

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#94

Post by sigstoat »

hogFeast wrote: post #37
martythemaniak wrote: post #5

For a while TSLA had an absurd amount of short positions against it, IIRC something like an order of magnitude more than other companies. Perhaps we are seeing a short squeeze? I'd love to see data (and interpretation) on how this has changed.

Short interest was highest at the bottom, and is much lower now (just generally, changes are going to correlate with price)...~45m in July, and is now ~25m (which is where it was at the start of the year). So 20m shares have been called in...daily volume is about ~9-10m so no short squeeze (afaik, TSLA is pretty easy to short because it is owned by so many retail investors...total shares outstanding is ~175m so turni…

> afaik, TSLA is pretty easy to short because it is owned by so many retail investors...

i didn't think retail investor held stock was normally loaned out. in fact, i thought it was only loaned when you had it in a margin account, and had gone negative?

whereas the big index funds report how much extra they earn by loaning out stocks.

(probably hand-waving over terminology. apologies.)

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#95

Post by daxorid »

oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

"At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?"

- Scott McNealy

Now, TSLA is only at P/S of 3.8, but that's even more absurd for a car company than 10 is for a computer company.

We'll see. So far we have been wrong. The bulls deserve to gloat, but time will tell.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#96

Post by agumonkey »

jppope wrote: post #55
oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

plus a tiny factor from the fact that Tesla is just out of the death trap and growing ... always raises the value a bit

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#97

Post by ImprovedSilence »

stetrain wrote: post #18
brenden2 wrote: post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

I agree that basic build quality is probably worse than a similarly priced BMW, Audi, etc. I haven't had any quality issues with mine but I know if I started measuring panel gaps it won't measure up to others in the price range. Noise insulation at highway speeds, door closing sounds, etc. don't quite measure up with the price either. Mostly I prefer the simplicity of the vehicle and drivetrain. Alternatives from oth…

I thought bmw and mercs do the window thing too.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#98

Post by jayd16 »

brenden2 wrote: post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

I'm curious as well. I'm mostly curious about the build quality of simple mechanical features like the doors. Why do the model 3 doors feel so cheap compared to a BMW. Is it a weight thing or just an oversight?

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#99

Post by NotSammyHagar »

jansan wrote: post #89
jppope wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

iPhones did not need a charging network. They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price, which made them even more desirable. But I just do not see average people who live in condos buy an EV anytime soon.

it's certainly a little inconvenient but people are already buying evs who live in condos in Seattle and San Francisco and probably other places. Don't forget apartments, they have the same issue

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#100

Post by [deleted] »

jansan wrote: post #89
jppope wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

iPhones did not need a charging network. They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price, which made them even more desirable. But I just do not see average people who live in condos buy an EV anytime soon.

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