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Things that I think will be important in the next decade

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Re: Things that I think will be important in the next decade

#141

Post by Polylactic_acid »

npo9 wrote: post #137
Polylactic_acid wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

VR communication systems are a toy/gimmick like second life was. I have spent some time with VRchat and see no reason why it would end up becoming a primary method of communication over IM/social media. Its a good way to mess around and have some fun but its less convenient than existing methods.

That’s true today. Is it true 10 years from today? If AR/VR becomes built into a form factor similar to reading glasses today I suspect we will see a lot more avatar based chatting.

For what purpose though? Front facing cameras are in every device now and IM/voice chat is still more common. I guess it depends if you are communicating for function or for social/entertainment purposes. I just don't see the added value of avatar communication other than the novelty of being a video game character or a fox person

Re: Things that I think will be important in the next decade

#143

Post by root_axis »

mewpmewp2 wrote: post #133
root_axis wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. It is worth the sacrifice. Tell your friends to send you an SMS invite to birthdays.

Well the argument was whether one can do reasonably as well without Facebook. So the point is there are quite many inconveniences caused by that. This is why it would be preferable that Facebook was regulated properly. It is not as simple as asking to send an SMS. I will be missing out on a lot of information, bonding opportunities, picture sharing and I will be that annoying dude making others jump through extra hoo…

Incoveninece is the price of change.

> It is not as simple as asking to send an SMS

It is. Inform your friends that you don't use Facebook and ask them to treat you the same way they would treat any other friend that doesn't use Facebook: reach out and communicate through any of the other myriad ways available to everyone.

> I am personally not going to make that sacrifice.

That's fine, but any objections you have to Facebook's behavior ring hollow since you recognize the problem but are unwilling to do anything about it. You are thus part of the problem.

> I could also live in complete isolation in the woods and without friends

Silly hyperbole. This is not the end result of not using Facebook.

Re: Things that I think will be important in the next decade

#144

Post by Thorrez »

The section titles are pretty funny. It's almost as if they were chosen to specifically disappoint cypherpunks.

> A New Private Social Platform

Cypherpunk: Signal! Tor! Riot!

Mark: Small groups of people who know each other.

> Decentralizing Opportunity

Cypherpunk: Bitcoin! Peertube! IPFS! Mastadon! Namecoin! Scuttlebutt!

Mark: Products for small businesses.

> The Next Computing Platform

Cypherpunk: Ethereum! Urbit! Homomorphic encryption! RISC-V! Solid! Dfinity! Blockstack!

Mark: Augmented reality.

Re: Things that I think will be important in the next decade

#145

Post by npo9 »

freepor wrote: post #86
gfodor wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any future avatar based communication system (VR/AR) needs to be open source and auditable if it’s going to mediate a large portion of human affairs and interaction. It also needs to be actually decentralized, the way the web and Internet are. We are working on it at Mozilla: hubs.mozilla.com More info here: https://github.com/mozilla/hubs-cloud/wiki/The-Web-Emergent-...

Why is this requirement particular to AR/VR, or is it just a desire to attach this requirement onto a big tech trend?

Judging from his post the author believes AR/VR can provide a sense of “presence” that will recreate how we interact socially on the net.

I remain skeptical, but this has been a recent argument coming from oculus devs and others in the VR/AR community.

Re: Things that I think will be important in the next decade

#146

Post by Polylactic_acid »

gfodor wrote: post #140
Polylactic_acid wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

VR communication systems are a toy/gimmick like second life was. I have spent some time with VRchat and see no reason why it would end up becoming a primary method of communication over IM/social media. Its a good way to mess around and have some fun but its less convenient than existing methods.

It seems highly likely 5-10 years from now you will be able to wear a device that is comfortable and unobtrusive that can deliver the presence of any other connected user to you instantly, including body language and full spatial awareness. In such a world where these devices exist, it would be pretty stunning to think people would not use them regularly for such purposes.

There are a few things that make it less convenient. One of them like you pointed out is the size and comfort issues but there are other issues. VR/AR chats require your full attention / real time communication. Most communication has left phone calls and moved to asynchronous communication methods. Another is limitations of the space, people spend a large % of there communication time on public transport, instant messaging translates well to this since it requires no listening or making noise and requires minimal space. Full body tracking and spacial awareness is useless when you are sitting down.

I think if people really wanted to primary communicate with facial/avatar awareness, we would see everyone using video calls over social media and IMs.

I think VR/AR communication has some place in the future but I do not see it becoming a serious/primary communication tool.

Re: Things that I think will be important in the next decade

#148

Post by rapnie »

cmdshiftf4 wrote: post #52

>"at some point in the 2020s, we will get breakthrough augmented reality glasses that will redefine our relationship with technology." Constant video surveillance, direct-to-eyes on-glass advertising, targeted advertising beamed on every approved spot, interests profiling via retina movements/focus and God knows what else will undoubtedly come about if AR glasses become "cool" and ubiquitous like mobile phones. Maybe…

Ah, you mean this future:

Keiichi Matsuda http://hyper-reality.co/

(or https://youtube.com/watch?v=YJg02ivYzSs )

Re: Things that I think will be important in the next decade

#149

Post by JDiculous »

spicyramen wrote: post #123

I still don't understand how the one of the most intelligent minds in Silicon Valley work for Facebook to make sure people click ads. Can they work on real problems like the ones Bill Gates foundation is working on? No, non-profitable enough

Because Facebook pays a lot more money and hire more people. If Bill Gates would pay me six figures to end poverty, I'd quit engineering and take him up on that offer. Unfortunately I have student loans to pay off.

Re: Things that I think will be important in the next decade

#150

Post by JDiculous »

Mark seems to be embracing remote work here citing how it can help alleviate skyrocketing housing costs, yet Facebook doesn't hire remote workers. He's in a position to start an industry trend here by putting his money where his mouth is, but instead we just get this blog post.

Certainly better than nothing though, just like him previpusly bringing up universal basic income. Would be nice to see him again put his money where his mouth in and support Andrew Yang. He's rich enough to do whatever he wants and actually change reality.

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