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The difference betwen skill and luck.

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Re: The difference betwen skill and luck.

#21

Post by jacques_chester »

jonpaul wrote: post #11

The best single comment I've read about luck was written right here on HN. I've detailed it here: http://techneur.com/post/1321568428/luck-ii In summary, I made a comment about Zuckerberg and the value of Facebook. Someone responded that he was lucky. To which someone else responded with this: (Can't find original HN comment) "This attitude bugs me a lot. There is probably a path for every single person in this count…

Zuckerberg is not particularly unique in terms of his intelligence, ambition or connections. Men and women like Zuckerberg have come into and passed out (or dropped out) of the USA's elite universities for centuries.

Yes. Luck played a big role.

Re: The difference betwen skill and luck.

#22

Post by jacques_chester »

ikono wrote: post #13
generalk wrote: post #7

> Always compare results with a null model that reflects luck. If nothing else, playing poker has taught me this. It's possible to win lots of money based on making exceedingly poor bets and getting very lucky. There's one card left to come, there's a 5% chance an Ace will come, but if it does you'll have an unbeatable hand, if not, you have a hand that beats 66% of the possible hands. Do you bet? What happens if the…

If nothing else, playing poker has taught me this: The correct answer is always "it depends".

You are now 2/3rds of the way to being a successful lawyer, accountant or economist!

Re: The difference betwen skill and luck.

#23

Post by jacques_chester »

sobbybutter wrote: post #3

"In the mid-1970s, a man sought a ticket that ended in 48. He found a ticket, bought it, and won the lottery. When asked why he was so intent on finding that number, he replied, 'I dreamed of the number seven for seven nights. And seven times seven is 48.'" Something tells me this guy did well by not taking math in grade school too seriously.

If he'd paid attention to maths, he wouldn't be playing the lottery.

Re: The difference betwen skill and luck.

#24

Post by vannevar »

jonpaul wrote: post #11

The best single comment I've read about luck was written right here on HN. I've detailed it here: http://techneur.com/post/1321568428/luck-ii In summary, I made a comment about Zuckerberg and the value of Facebook. Someone responded that he was lucky. To which someone else responded with this: (Can't find original HN comment) "This attitude bugs me a lot. There is probably a path for every single person in this count…

Zuck executed the shit out of Facebook.

In comparison to what? For all we know, there were dozens, maybe hundreds of other similar sites being built at the same time. Without being able to compare them, we really can't say how well he executed Facebook. Having used both Friendster and MySpace, I'd say he did better than either of them. But by the time Facebook was big enough to be mentioned in the same breath as those two, success to some large degree was already assured.

Instead, I prefer to ascribe luck to things that the individual actually had no control over, such as winning the lottery.

This is precisely the point: there may very well have been key moments in Facebook's history, over which Zuckerberg had not control whatsoever, yet which ultimately determined the company's fate. We know the economy is a nonlinear dynamical system, and in such systems small perturbations in the input can lead to large changes in the output. There's no reason to suppose that similar effects don't play a role in the life cycle of individuals or businesses.

Re: The difference betwen skill and luck.

#26

Post by rick888 »

vannevar wrote: post #24
jonpaul wrote: post #11

The best single comment I've read about luck was written right here on HN. I've detailed it here: http://techneur.com/post/1321568428/luck-ii In summary, I made a comment about Zuckerberg and the value of Facebook. Someone responded that he was lucky. To which someone else responded with this: (Can't find original HN comment) "This attitude bugs me a lot. There is probably a path for every single person in this count…

Zuck executed the shit out of Facebook. In comparison to what? For all we know, there were dozens, maybe hundreds of other similar sites being built at the same time. Without being able to compare them, we really can't say how well he executed Facebook. Having used both Friendster and MySpace, I'd say he did better than either of them. But by the time Facebook was big enough to be mentioned in the same breath as thos…

"In comparison to what? For all we know, there were dozens, maybe hundreds of other similar sites being built at the same time. Without being able to compare them, we really can't say how well he executed Facebook."

Yes we can. If there were tons of social networking sites out there at the time, and Facebook came out on top, there must be a reason.

Re: The difference betwen skill and luck.

#27

Post by rick888 »

jacques_chester wrote: post #21
jonpaul wrote: post #11

The best single comment I've read about luck was written right here on HN. I've detailed it here: http://techneur.com/post/1321568428/luck-ii In summary, I made a comment about Zuckerberg and the value of Facebook. Someone responded that he was lucky. To which someone else responded with this: (Can't find original HN comment) "This attitude bugs me a lot. There is probably a path for every single person in this count…

Zuckerberg is not particularly unique in terms of his intelligence, ambition or connections. Men and women like Zuckerberg have come into and passed out (or dropped out) of the USA's elite universities for centuries. Yes. Luck played a big role.

"Zuckerberg is not particularly unique in terms of his intelligence, ambition or connections. Men and women like Zuckerberg have come into and passed out (or dropped out) of the USA's elite universities for centuries. Yes. Luck played a big role."

The reason I say luck didn't play a big role, is because not anyone could do what he did.

Can anybody from a 5 year old to a grandmother build Facebook? If not, there must be skill required to accomplish the task.

To build the application behind Facebook alone takes skill (taking out a large percentage of the population). To build the company up to what it is (and make the right decisions) takes another set of skills. I think the luck factor is around 10%.

Of course there is a certain amount of luck with anything that we do. I have always felt that there are lucky situations all around us. Without the proper skills to recognize it, most people will just let it pass by.

Re: The difference betwen skill and luck.

#28

Post by YooLi »

rick888 wrote: post #26
vannevar wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Zuck executed the shit out of Facebook. In comparison to what? For all we know, there were dozens, maybe hundreds of other similar sites being built at the same time. Without being able to compare them, we really can't say how well he executed Facebook. Having used both Friendster and MySpace, I'd say he did better than either of them. But by the time Facebook was big enough to be mentioned in the same breath as thos…

"In comparison to what? For all we know, there were dozens, maybe hundreds of other similar sites being built at the same time. Without being able to compare them, we really can't say how well he executed Facebook." Yes we can. If there were tons of social networking sites out there at the time, and Facebook came out on top, there must be a reason.

Luck? :)

Re: The difference betwen skill and luck.

#29

Post by jacques_chester »

rick888 wrote: post #27
jacques_chester wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Zuckerberg is not particularly unique in terms of his intelligence, ambition or connections. Men and women like Zuckerberg have come into and passed out (or dropped out) of the USA's elite universities for centuries. Yes. Luck played a big role.

"Zuckerberg is not particularly unique in terms of his intelligence, ambition or connections. Men and women like Zuckerberg have come into and passed out (or dropped out) of the USA's elite universities for centuries. Yes. Luck played a big role." The reason I say luck didn't play a big role, is because not anyone could do what he did. Can anybody from a 5 year old to a grandmother build Facebook? If not, there must…

I am reminded of an anecdote of a famous physicist talking to Army personnel during WW2. Unfortunately I cannot find a reference with various keywords on Google, so take it as you will.

Somehow conversation turns to the great generals -- the 4 and 5 star generals.

"How many great generals are there?" asks the physicist.

"No more than about 1 in 20 is a truly great general", they answer.

"How do you decide who is a 4- or 5- star general?" the physicist asks.

The army men decide that you need to have won 5 battles to be a great general.

The physicist then explains how it can easily be luck. Suppose that battle success is randomly determined. A general has a 0.5^5 chance of winning 5/5 battles out of sheer luck -- 3.125% in fact. Therefore the majority of "Great Generals" are just lucky.

Re: The difference betwen skill and luck.

#30

Post by diego »

rick888 wrote: post #27
jacques_chester wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Zuckerberg is not particularly unique in terms of his intelligence, ambition or connections. Men and women like Zuckerberg have come into and passed out (or dropped out) of the USA's elite universities for centuries. Yes. Luck played a big role.

"Zuckerberg is not particularly unique in terms of his intelligence, ambition or connections. Men and women like Zuckerberg have come into and passed out (or dropped out) of the USA's elite universities for centuries. Yes. Luck played a big role." The reason I say luck didn't play a big role, is because not anyone could do what he did. Can anybody from a 5 year old to a grandmother build Facebook? If not, there must…

You are falling prey to a fallacy. Suppose there is a competition (say a marathon) where one thousand people participate. The winner gets to choose a number between 1 and one million and see if it matches a randomly generated one.

If you win, it is true that not everyone could do what you did (you were the best runner out of a thousand). It also true that luck played a HUGE role (one in a million odds after putting yourself in the right place based on skill).

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