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The difference betwen skill and luck.

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Re: The difference betwen skill and luck.

#11
The best single comment I've read about luck was written right here on HN. I've detailed it here: http://techneur.com/post/1321568428/luck-ii

In summary, I made a comment about Zuckerberg and the value of Facebook. Someone responded that he was lucky. To which someone else responded with this: (Can't find original HN comment)

"This attitude bugs me a lot. There is probably a path for every single person in this country to make a million dollars in the next year if they were just “savvy enough” to take advantage of it. It seems everyone wants to diminish Zuck’s success by ascribing luck to it, but let me tell you something. Zuck executed the shit out of Facebook. Did the community and mindshare just come out of thin air?

There’s no good reason to believe that Zuckerberg is lucky at all. Saying he was in the right place at the right time has this tacit assumption that if he were somewhere else at the wrong time he would have tried the same thing and fell flat on his face.

It seems because Facebook is an outlier, people feel safe talking about the luck factor, but that’s meaningless because we all exist with individual circumstances, and by that measure everything every one of us does is based on luck. Instead, I prefer to ascribe luck to things that the individual actually had no control over, such as winning the lottery."

Re: The difference betwen skill and luck.

#12
post #11

The best single comment I've read about luck was written right here on HN. I've detailed it here: http://techneur.com/post/1321568428/luck-ii In summary, I made a comment about Zuckerberg and the value of Facebook. Someone responded that he was lucky. To which someone else responded with this: (Can't find original HN comment) "This attitude bugs me a lot. There is probably a path for every single person in this count…

The comment is here: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1791800

Searchyc.com is your friend: http://searchyc.com/This+attitude+bugs+me+a+lot.+There+

Re: The difference betwen skill and luck.

#13
post #7

> Always compare results with a null model that reflects luck. If nothing else, playing poker has taught me this. It's possible to win lots of money based on making exceedingly poor bets and getting very lucky. There's one card left to come, there's a 5% chance an Ace will come, but if it does you'll have an unbeatable hand, if not, you have a hand that beats 66% of the possible hands. Do you bet? What happens if the…

If nothing else, playing poker has taught me this: The correct answer is always "it depends".

Re: The difference betwen skill and luck.

#14
> Reversion to the mean. Any system that combines skill and luck will revert to the mean over time. This means that an extreme outcome, good or bad, will be followed by an outcome that has an expected value closer to the mean.

So if I toss a coin 10 times and it comes up heads, the next toss is more likely to come up tails? I smell a rat.

Re: The difference betwen skill and luck.

#15

> Reversion to the mean. Any system that combines skill and luck will revert to the mean over time. This means that an extreme outcome, good or bad, will be followed by an outcome that has an expected value closer to the mean. So if I toss a coin 10 times and it comes up heads, the next toss is more likely to come up tails? I smell a rat.

No, it means that in the next 10 tosses, you still expect to get a 5/5 split, so over these 20 tosses, you'll probably have 15 heads, which is closer to the mean.

I've seen this analysis in sports. In baseball, for example, you generally expect teams to win one-run games as often as they win games in general (that is, there's no "great closer" effect). So if you see a team winning 80% of their one-run games in the first half of the season, you can expect their record to be worse in the second half.

Re: The difference betwen skill and luck.

#16
post #12
post #11

The best single comment I've read about luck was written right here on HN. I've detailed it here: http://techneur.com/post/1321568428/luck-ii In summary, I made a comment about Zuckerberg and the value of Facebook. Someone responded that he was lucky. To which someone else responded with this: (Can't find original HN comment) "This attitude bugs me a lot. There is probably a path for every single person in this count…

The comment is here: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1791800 Searchyc.com is your friend: http://searchyc.com/This+attitude+bugs+me+a+lot.+There+

You can also just google it with quotation marks.

Re: The difference betwen skill and luck.

#20
post #15

> Reversion to the mean. Any system that combines skill and luck will revert to the mean over time. This means that an extreme outcome, good or bad, will be followed by an outcome that has an expected value closer to the mean. So if I toss a coin 10 times and it comes up heads, the next toss is more likely to come up tails? I smell a rat.

No, it means that in the next 10 tosses, you still expect to get a 5/5 split, so over these 20 tosses, you'll probably have 15 heads, which is closer to the mean. I've seen this analysis in sports. In baseball, for example, you generally expect teams to win one-run games as often as they win games in general (that is, there's no "great closer" effect). So if you see a team winning 80% of their one-run games in the fi…

Ah, I see, thanks.
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