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Iran crash: Ukrainian passenger plane crashes with 170 on board

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Iran crash: Ukrainian passenger plane crashes with 170 on board

#21

Post by sparkling »

BinaryIdiot wrote: post #5

Happening hours after Iran's strike against bases in Iraq raises the obvious question: is this in any way related to the strikes or a coincidence? I'm guessing it'll be at least a few months before we hear about the why but I wonder if there will be additional focus on it due to the recent tensions.

I won't point fingers at anyone, but:

- A 3-year old 737 operated by a reputable airline does not just turn into a huge fireball mid-air and crash like a rock like we see it in the video: https://youtu.be/xRc31DTStwA - It just doesn't happen.

- Iran declaring it a "technical error" just hours after the crash is dubious/untrustworthy to say the least. We need a indepedend aviation agency to look at the case, investigators from the manufacturer and some experts from the carrier on ground. Unfournately such investigation will be very difficult with the current political tensions.

Re: Iran crash: Ukrainian passenger plane crashes with 170 on board

#22

Post by contravariant »

beagle3 wrote: post #16
tzfld wrote: post #2

Not related to the Iran-US conflict, it seems.

Could be e.g. the Iranian's shooting iit down due to hairline trigger Iranian defense (or otherwise a mistake identifying the civilian aircraft as enemy aircraft) - in this case, I would say it IS related to the conflict, even though it is entirely on one side.

At this rate, even if there's no causal relation it will still be related to the conflict before the day is over.

Re: Iran crash: Ukrainian passenger plane crashes with 170 on board

#23

Post by spease »

nickserv wrote: post #10
sschueller wrote: post #3

This will be a difficult investigation. As we have seen with other Boeing crashes, Boeing will blame everyone else before admitting anything. Iran for sure won't admit it if they shot it down by mistake and if the US shot it down they wouldn't admit it either.

It'll be a very easy investigation: "pilot error". This way there's no need to dig any deeper.

Is there actually any kind of believable “pilot error” that can cause a passenger 737-800 to catch fire in the air and crash?

Re: Iran crash: Ukrainian passenger plane crashes with 170 on board

#24

Post by tempsy »

aaronbrethorst wrote: post #15

A three year old Boeing 737-800, which does not have any known safety issues. It feels deeply implausible that this airplane would simply crash due to mechanical issues two minutes after taking off from Tehran just hours after Iran retaliated against the United States's assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, but then again there was also an earthquake in Iran just a few hours ago, so I guess maybe these things ju…

It’s already been reported that it was accidentally shot down.

Re: Iran crash: Ukrainian passenger plane crashes with 170 on board

#25

Post by mg794613 »

onetimemanytime wrote: post #9
tzfld wrote: post #2

Not related to the Iran-US conflict, it seems.

Maybe, but average people will not believe it.

Average people? Look at the comments here. It's like it's facebook here: "off coarse it's fake, ww3 is coming".

Re: Iran crash: Ukrainian passenger plane crashes with 170 on board

#26

Post by tallanvor »

sschueller wrote: post #3

This will be a difficult investigation. As we have seen with other Boeing crashes, Boeing will blame everyone else before admitting anything. Iran for sure won't admit it if they shot it down by mistake and if the US shot it down they wouldn't admit it either.

This was a 737-800. The first ones entered service in 1998 and around 5000 of them have been delivered since then. Comparing this aircraft to the 737 MAX is stupid.

Re: Iran crash: Ukrainian passenger plane crashes with 170 on board

#27

Post by daenz »

aaronbrethorst wrote: post #15

A three year old Boeing 737-800, which does not have any known safety issues. It feels deeply implausible that this airplane would simply crash due to mechanical issues two minutes after taking off from Tehran just hours after Iran retaliated against the United States's assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, but then again there was also an earthquake in Iran just a few hours ago, so I guess maybe these things ju…

It could also be bad actors trying to stir the pot.

Re: Iran crash: Ukrainian passenger plane crashes with 170 on board

#28

Post by sparkling »

xster wrote: post #18
echelon wrote: post #12

(Edit: We don't know what caused this incident. Speculation follows. It's best to not form conclusions until the experts examine the evidence.) It looks like it was shot down with an air defense missile. You can see the plane on fire as it falls to the earth. Video taken during the crash, the plane is clearly engulfed in flames: https://mobile.twitter.com/isna_farsi/status/121475622529397... Video of the aftermath /…

Hard to be conclusive with that video. Iran's own state media says the engine was on fire. Not necessarily contradicted by the video. https://en.irna.ir/news/83625750/147-Iranians-32-foreigners-...

A fire in the engine is not enough to turn a 737 into a huge burning fireball that crashes within 20 seconds.

Regarding the missile theory: if it was a missle, it was probably accidential. The majority of passengers on board were Iranian citizens.

Re: Iran crash: Ukrainian passenger plane crashes with 170 on board

#29

Post by saberdancer »

tzfld wrote: post #2

Not related to the Iran-US conflict, it seems.

How many new 737's drop down from the sky in a fireball with pieces falling away? All of this without pilot reporting any issues.

Things to consider:

1. Iran launched an attack on US bases, their AA forces were on alert

2. Flight was delayed for over an hour, this could potentially appear as an unknown aircraft to an on edge AA crew (if they are operating the missiles each day, they know the routine flights)

3. 737s don't fall out from the sky in a fireball

4. Iran immediately reported that it crashed down due to "technical difficulties". I'd expect them to claim that US shot it down if they didn't know better.

5. Pilot didn't report a thing

6. Transponder data suddenly cut off.

7. Plane was climbing and could have appeared suddenly to AA positioned behind a ridge/mountain (from what I gather, Tehran is surrounded by mountains).

In my opinion, it's almost certainly an explosion on the plane. It may be a bomb (unlikely in my opinion) or a missile. Given the heated nature of the situation it's much more likely to be human error on the missile battery than it is to be an unrelated explosion of an 737 while climbing out of Tehran.

Re: Iran crash: Ukrainian passenger plane crashes with 170 on board

#30

Post by techie128 »

xster wrote: post #18
echelon wrote: post #12

(Edit: We don't know what caused this incident. Speculation follows. It's best to not form conclusions until the experts examine the evidence.) It looks like it was shot down with an air defense missile. You can see the plane on fire as it falls to the earth. Video taken during the crash, the plane is clearly engulfed in flames: https://mobile.twitter.com/isna_farsi/status/121475622529397... Video of the aftermath /…

Hard to be conclusive with that video. Iran's own state media says the engine was on fire. Not necessarily contradicted by the video. https://en.irna.ir/news/83625750/147-Iranians-32-foreigners-...

Don't you think it should take them at least a few days to determine a preliminary cause of the crash?
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