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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

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Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#391

Post by freehunter »

moltar wrote: post #147
windowshopping wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is it not easier to start something now than ten years ago? I would say he was correct on that one.

Maybe analysis paralysis? Facebook was started as a silly php script. Now you “need” half of npm, react, backend, devops etc to get started.

You can still take the 2010 approach and just run everything on Rails and Postgres. It’ll be a long time before any startup outgrows that stack, and by the time they do they’ll have the ability to rewrite like Twitter did.

Anyone who starts off with anything more than that (or Django or your favorite language’s equivalent) is just wasting time and effort trying to be trendy. Over-engineering a startup only serves to keep you from testing market fit, which is only a good plan if you’re trying to milk more investment money because you know you’re going to fail as soon as you launch.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#392

Post by swyx »

sumedh wrote: post #28
ra7 wrote: post #4

A lot of doom and gloom for Microsoft in that thread. But Microsoft has fared much better than anyone expected.

> But Microsoft has fared much better than anyone expected. Its probably because they picked the right guy to lead after Ballmer.

for what its worth, Ballmer was apparently a massive, massive sponsor of Satya all the way to the top. Satya wouldnt have happened without Ballmer. for all his flaws as CEO, he did one thing right.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#393

Post by jp42 »

tashoecraft wrote: post #164
lalos wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Roadster got delivered on 2008, right but not a crazy prediction based on those times.

Roadster was an extremely niche car for millionaires. Spacex had yet to have a successful launch I believe. So while not a crazy prediction, still impressive that I doubt many people who have bet on

Space successfully launched their first rocket on 2008. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_1#Fourth_flight However spacex workhorse Falcon9's first flight was in mid 2010.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#394

Post by dnautics »

crimsonalucard wrote: post #354
dnautics wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The majority of programming today is not functional at all. That's probably true. > I think there is little chance FP will become mainstream That's demonstrably not, as React has basically gone full FP. I would argue that the majority of bootcamp students are now taught functional programming.

Boot camp and react aren’t mainstream programming. Also react isn’t full FP.

that's a no scotsman argument.

You could claim erlang isn't full fp because you have a stateful process attribute dictionary, and, while we're at it, access to network resources like a Postgres database, but that would be an almost meaningless statement.

With Hooks, react basically went full FP. You can still make an object component, but it is frowned upon.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#395

Post by vjktyu »

aazaa wrote: post #185

The most striking thing about the thread is how little of current importance was even mentioned: - Bitcoin would become the decade's best investment by far - the President of the US would conduct foreign policy through Twitter - electric scooters would become a billion dollar business (Bird, Lime, etc.) - the sharing economy would threaten the taxi and hotel industries (AirBNB and Uber) - escalation of school shootin…

Regarding escalation of school shootings, it seems plausible, but only because (here is an unpopular opinion that will get 20 downvotes) the rich want to disarm the poor and use school/kids/safety as an excuse. And that's understandable: if I was rich enough to afford private schools for my kids in a classy neighborhood, I'd want to keep weirdos with guns far from my family, while at the same time Id have 24/7 former-marines guards armed with full auto weapons.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#396

Post by vjktyu »

The next decade will be the decade of survelliance. Nearly dust size receivers will cost nothing and will be generously used everywhere: from concrete blocks to clothes. The US will come up with a clever use case so people will buy this themselves (finding a matching pair of socks will finally become a trackable problem, thanks to receivers in all socks), while authoritarian countries will implant these chips in lieu of passports and credit cards. Paired with 5G, this will be a perfect always online monitoring system.

I don't think there will be any notable advancements in science: we won't create AI, we won't cure cancer and we won't switch to electric cars.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#397

Post by MaxBarraclough »

agumonkey wrote: post #130
jnwatson wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Python is eating the world. In many measures, Python is slower than Ruby.

python won't last, just like ruby / js / php I sense a strong convergence between all of them (builtin DS, linguistic traits, bits of static typing)

JavaScript will last. There's no question there at all.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#399

Post by rattray »

badrequest wrote: post #371
dash2 wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apparently quite a lot. Poverty has gone down six-fold in a generation: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.DDAY?end=2017&lo...

I wonder how much more it would have gone down if Chile had a more equitable economic system.

I think many economists would argue it'd have gone _up_ rather than down due to the counterintuitive nature of capitalism.

In any case, many economists argue over this question :)

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#400

Post by ljw1001 »

aazaa wrote: post #185

The most striking thing about the thread is how little of current importance was even mentioned: - Bitcoin would become the decade's best investment by far - the President of the US would conduct foreign policy through Twitter - electric scooters would become a billion dollar business (Bird, Lime, etc.) - the sharing economy would threaten the taxi and hotel industries (AirBNB and Uber) - escalation of school shootin…

How does your list not include climate change as a thing of current importance? It wasn't mentioned much in the original either - though i saw one comment calling it "FUD" - but they were making forecasts ;)
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