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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

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61–70 of 462 posts

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#61
post #35

> if there is a way to work Elon Musk in there somewhere that would be good, I have a feeling he's going to make some big waves in the next 10 years but I haven't a clue how. -- jacquesm https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025811

The Roadster got delivered on 2008, right but not a crazy prediction based on those times.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say that this prediction is describing current developments quite well. Newer programming languages (Go, Rust) and development tools are making the "software as lean independent components" vision more relevant than it ever was.

Someone really needs to crack simple generic type systems with native levels of performance to get all of this to work. Performance comes from optimizing the usage of state against hardware, modularity comes from code satisfying the properties of composition which is best left stateless (and high levels of modularity must come from abstraction and conventional practice, incurring further debts on the programmer and m…

> Someone really needs to crack simple generic type systems with native levels of performance to get all of this to work.

We know how this works, at least in broad theoretical terms. Zero-cost abstractions are quite feasible within a self-contained module/component, but their scope is ultimately limited by ease of building and deployment. Nevertheless the performance impact of having to support high levels of abstraction across modules/components is quite reasonable, even if not literally "zero" cost.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#63
post #29

Nobody saw Bitcoin coming. (The first block had already been mined at the start of 2009, but there was no real exchange trading until later in 2010.)

If someone saw it coming in 2010 they are extremely rich now :)

Or they sold it all in the 2013 bubble and now regret it.

(This happened to a friend of mine - he sold it all off to pay-off his student loans before the 2013 bubble peaked - it'd be worth over $10m at the end of 2017).

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#66
post #4

A lot of doom and gloom for Microsoft in that thread. But Microsoft has fared much better than anyone expected.

I disagree, I think anyone the put in charge would have done well. Satya came in during one of the biggest bull runs in history and just surfed the wave. Even Ballmer would have had a hard time to stop that.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#67
post #4

A lot of doom and gloom for Microsoft in that thread. But Microsoft has fared much better than anyone expected.

betcha if there were prediction thread for another decade, people will post how Google will be turned into former bell labs and eventually seize to exist.

I can see that happening in the second half of this decade as Google continues to grow and absorb more and more of the Internet.
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