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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

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191–200 of 462 posts

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#192
post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, look how much things changed between 2000 and 2010 compared to 2010 to 2020. Facebook didn’t exist. Apple was “beleaguered”. Google was in its infancy and Yahoo was still dominant (before the crash) Microsoft was seen as unassailable. Amazon was mostly just an interesting book seller. They were just getting into CDs and hadn’t even made the deal with Toys R Us yet. Netflix was struggling against BlockBuster ren…

Sure, the large players stayed about the same in the last decade but we also found some new large players. The entire app ecosystems was in the earliest infancy in 2010. AWS was in its infancy. Slack wasn’t released.

Slack isn’t a “large player” they are nowhere near being profitable and are nowhere in the same league as Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google or Microsoft.

The app ecosystem was growing like crazy in 2010. It was a year and a half into “there is an app for that”. Facebook had already pivoted to being big in mobile.

The same can be said about Uber. Once the companies have a profitable and sustainable business model that doesn’t involve burning cash then they can be considered a major player.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#193
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Roadster got delivered on 2008, right but not a crazy prediction based on those times.

Roadster was an extremely niche car for millionaires. Spacex had yet to have a successful launch I believe. So while not a crazy prediction, still impressive that I doubt many people who have bet on

Model S got unveiled on 2009, the Gov invested/lent in them in 2009 and I remember the whole buzz of having a Tesla. Seems like a lot of people betted on them (pre-orders, government, investors, etc).

Quick search result in that time frame https://www.google.com/search?q=tesla&source=lnt&tbs=cdr%3A1...

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#194
post #170
post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Microsoft was the biggest surprise. In 2010 MacBooks were starting to become very popular, and it looked like Microsoft’s monopoly on consumer computing was coming to an end. It was common to think Microsoft was on a long decline in 2010.

But nobody would quite imagine that Microsoft didn't control an iota of mobile computing operating system.

Even after buying Nokia's phone business.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#195
post #185

The most striking thing about the thread is how little of current importance was even mentioned: - Bitcoin would become the decade's best investment by far - the President of the US would conduct foreign policy through Twitter - electric scooters would become a billion dollar business (Bird, Lime, etc.) - the sharing economy would threaten the taxi and hotel industries (AirBNB and Uber) - escalation of school shootin…

"C'est la vie", say the old folks

It goes to show you never can tell

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#196
post #5

IsaacL nailed it the best https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1027093 And surprisingly the WoW one is the most off :D

IsaacL, if you're still around, you should make predictions for stuff by 2030!

IsaacL is still around it seems:https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=IsaacL

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#197

What a fun read! The one that ended up being the most off in the thread: > I predict (and hope for) a major turn back to simplicity in technologies. Multimillion-line software will go extinct like dinosaurs. Existing programming languages and platforms will gradually be replaced with ones so simple and elegant that one software component will be written and maintained by one to three developers and art designers and…

Framework and language complexity is just a cycle thing. Someone makes a new language/framework that's minimal, clean, and suited to what people need. Needs change, or people miss certain things, it gets bloated, and the cycle repeats.

Except for C and C++. C just gets better, C++ just keeps growing.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#198
post #170
post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Microsoft was the biggest surprise. In 2010 MacBooks were starting to become very popular, and it looked like Microsoft’s monopoly on consumer computing was coming to an end. It was common to think Microsoft was on a long decline in 2010.

But nobody would quite imagine that Microsoft didn't control an iota of mobile computing operating system.

Honestly it doesn’t matter. It came out in the Oracle trial that Google only made $23 billion in profit from Android from its inception to the start of the trial and t still has to pay Apple a reported $8 billion a year to be the default search engine for iOS.

Apple has made a lot more in mobile from Google than Google has made from Android.

For awhile, MS was making more in patent fees from Android OEMs than Google was making in licensing and advertising.

Losing mobile was the best thing that could happen to MS so it could focus on Azure and making Office ubiquitous- where the real money is.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Network analysis and data mining will claim their first major political scalp. Who's scalp was it? I don't know any politician who has been taken to task over network analysis and data mining. Fore sure not Obama, whose staffers have quietly chortled that they did far worse than Cambridge Analytica ever did. Definitely not Trump, his numbers are as even as they haev ever been. Maybe Zuckerberg? But he's still CEO o…

Hillary Clinton. The Trump campaign claims their data operation is how they won in the Rust Belt.

To me it seems obvious that Hillary Clinton was the one who pulled (or pushed) the victory in Trumps direction, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory by some really interesting remarks about her core voters.

(Disclaimer: Not an American, don't like Hillary Clinton and definitely not Donald Trump.)

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#200
post #21

> Functional programming / dynamic languages will go out of fashion. Glad this didn't happen. Also it's weird to me to equate functional & dynamic like that.

They halfway did. Other languages took the interesting parts of functional languages (Java and C++ have lambdas, now). The the dynamic bit, Python has type annotations now, and Go, a replacement for Python in some ways, is statically typed.

Except for the spread of Javascript. No one said backend JS would be a thing.

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