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Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

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Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#191

Post by roenxi »

nl wrote: post #181
roenxi wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We won't know until the bushfire season ends. There are people who've lost their homes, are in dire straits and need support. But the raw numbers are not doing the same sort of damage as a 10% increase in general energy costs. So far it has been 1,516 homes. Australia will have something like 5,000,000 homes. That is bad, but entirely tolerable averaged over the continent - we build about that many homes in a month o…

The tourism industry in Victoria alone is directly worth $26B/year[1]. The main tourist areas outside of Melbourne are being evacuated today, in the middle of the prime summer holiday season. In NSW tourism is worth $40B[2]. The situation is similar there. Say this costs between 10 and 20% of that. That is roughlt $10B in direct costs this year alone. Additionally your 10% additional cost of energy is nonsense. Austr…

> Additionally your 10% additional cost of energy is nonsense. Australia hasn't had a functioning energy policy is 10 years, which is the primary reason costs are so high. Any kind of policy which both sides of politics agree on (at least roughly!) will provide investment certainty and cut that cost.

Finkel review [0], page 201, Levelised Cost of Electricity in 2020 estimates solar at ~91 $/MWh vs ~76 $/MWh supercritical coal.

So you were right that I was using an unsourced number. Now I've sourced it and am revising it to 20%. And I have a source that says if we just twiddle our thumbs for 10 years we should get a much better deal, with no extra cost given we produce somewhere between 1 and 5% of the worlds emissions depending on how we account for exports.

[0] https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/independent-re...

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#192

Post by phs318u »

bjowen wrote: post #180
phs318u wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please support your claim with some evidence. I worked in the contestable electricity distribution business for 8 years from 2001 to 2009 and I can assure that your claim is complete bollocks.

https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2014/july/1404136800/jes...

Exactly. I worked at Powercor and Citipower - two distribution licenses but one parent company that ran a shared-everything operation across the two. We cost a bit more than one company to run but we’re able to recoup as if we were two wholly independent operations. The whole contestable distribution market was/is a huge scam.

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#193

Post by DraftDodger67 »

sheepfreedom wrote: post #151
DraftDodger67 wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest driver of Australia's increased emissions is the increasing population: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2017/07/greenhouse-gas-emis... Under current immigration settings Australia will reach 40 million people by 2050. With zero net overseas migration, the population would stabilise at 27 million then fall slightly. This is the most important change that could be made to assist the Australian environment,…

I think the thing that you’re not addressing though is that this isn’t a national problem, it’s global. Australia isn’t on fire just because there are too many people within the borders of Australia, it’s on fire because of global changes caused by growing populations that don’t care about being sustainable.

A lot of the land around Australia is being cleared for housing and agriculture: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/05/global-d...

Immigration puts a greater demand on land for that purpose. Plus, a greater population in Australia means a net increase in global emissions - since the vast majority of migrants are from three poorer countries: India, China, Nepal.

Widespread illegal logging is occurring - but the logging is by a Government-owned corporation, so it receives little attention: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-21/victorian-forests-app...

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#194

Post by carl_sandland »

yassam wrote: post #190
crispinb wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes absolutely, of course. No-one can deny the outsized political significance of those margins along many dimensions (marginal rural constituencies, the Liberal/Nat/LNP right-wing factions, Alan Jones' grumpy gossiping old men, perpetually outraged about anything done by anyone under 60, the Murdoch press, etc). I guess my point is that these extreme margins gain their power only because of the nihilism of the skitt…

Good analysis. I've recently been reading The Australian online, and any time there's a climate related article, there are literally 100s of comments almost all of which are rabid climate deniers. It's stomach churning to read. No idea how representative of general population, but my gut-feeling is that it's a significant minority, e.g. 10-20%.

Yeah it's depressing, but have you not noticed a change or shift in tone at least in the media ? I'm hopeful this swings the focus back onto science and mitigation, and away from the economy. Every time our PM says "we must balance the environment with a healthy economy for all" I want to explode: what does that even MEAN. Economic activity is a function of human activity and humans need to like... breath?

I've been encouraged by some of the interviews and coverage with local government officials, they seem to be really shocked into a truth: I wish we could do better than a temporary 'concern' over the earth.

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#195

Post by akvadrako »

bjowen wrote: post #184
akvadrako wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In summary, you are saying that controlled burns were reduced and they would have helped, it's just that the protests against them weren't significant? Also seems like the Australian media supported the protestors: http://joannenova.com.au/2020/01/abc-deleting-facebook-posts...

That’s a claim you should not read uncritically, given where it is published — the site is a “climate skeptic” page, and the claim it is trying to advance is that the national broadcaster is being manipulated, or at the centre of a vast left-wing conspiracy, that has inexplicably ruined the country, despite having apparently not convinced its audience to vote for a left-wing party. Here’s the thing: the reportage of…

Protecting the protesters could certainly be one of the reasons to take it down. But that shows they are sympathetic to their cause, when really they did a horrible thing.

I don’t think that makes the article less on point.

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#196

Post by mceoin »

rs23296008n1 wrote: post #138
sumedh wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> so we won't know for another three years if there is any any voter backlash Labour will say your taxes will increase, liberals will promise more tax cuts and everyone will vote for Liberal again.

Not so much in Cobargo. They were somewhat less than enthusiastic over the Prime Bureaucrat's recent visit.

Yes it's definitely possible that Bega will flip next state election even though the anger is directed at federal leadership.

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#197

Post by mceoin »

perilunar wrote: post #114
mceoin wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can only speak from my personal circles but the current bushfires aren't having a direct impact on personal responsibility (those who were interested were already interested; those that weren't still aren't). We just had a political cycle where the Labor party lost on (among many reasons) a more climate-change focused agenda in the federal election, so we won't know for another three years if there is any any voter b…

> Sydney has been smog filled for the last month. Not smog, just plain smoke.

You are correct - I can't edit original post as it's been too long but thank's for picking that up.

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#198

Post by mceoin »

eeh wrote: post #172
apexalpha wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would double count emissions but it does mean that Australia could do more than just eliminate their own emissions, they could limit other countries' as well by stopping export.

Let's walk before we can run. It's difficulty enough to get countries to reduce their own emissions. Asking them to compromise their exports to reduce others' emissions is simply not viable at the moment.

Why shouldn't a citizenry decide to limit exports of certain goods when it is in their own interest to do so? We certainly do this with uranium already. Likewise with weapons technology and all manner of harmful trade vectors.

Australia's coal industry provides few jobs, is heavily government subsidized (either explicitly or through direct infrastructure funding), pays little to no tax, and creates environmental harm that the majority of the electorate disagree with.

[Sorry HN: I know I should be supporting this with annotations but am time pressed today.]

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#199

Post by mceoin »

phs318u wrote: post #47
edflsafoiewq wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you expect them to actually do? The entire CO2 output of Australia could drop to zero with negligible effect on climate change.

Australia did not fight with the Allies against the Axis powers in WWII because our contribution would make a difference either way. We fought because it was the right thing to do. And in the cause of this global emergency we chose to contribute our fair share and to back our principled beliefs with principled actions.

I think Australia had more than pure idealism in mind during the war: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Sydney_Harbour

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#200

Post by maddog3356 »

Angostura wrote: post #56
maddog3356 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big evidence that higher concentrations of CO2 cause global warming was just the graph in Gore's movie. I thoroughly debunked that graph. You have a defense of that graph? Next, we just canNOT take junk evidence as a reason for big, expensive responses. As I explained that would take us back to killing people to pour their blood on a rock to keep the sun moving across the sky. With no good historical evidence, th…

I would like to see your break down your belief structure a bit more, so I can understand it. Which of you do you believe? 1. That CO2 isn't a greenhouse gas? 2. That increasing the concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere doesn't influence global temperatures? 3. That human activity hasn't increased CO2 concentrations significantly. If you answer those, we'll be able to know where your head is a bit better. FWIW, no-…

> 1. That CO2 isn't a greenhouse gas?

In my post, I directly answered that. So, you did not read my post. So, all I could do here to respond would be just to repeat my post which is silly.

Just read my post.

I also addressed well and directly your other questions. Again, read my post.

If you still have any questions, then ask away.

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