Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia • Hacker News Board

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#181

Post by nl » Thu, Jan 02, 2020, 10:41 PM UTC

roenxi wrote: post #160

pjc50 wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the standard of living of being on fire?

We won't know until the bushfire season ends. There are people who've lost their homes, are in dire straits and need support. But the raw numbers are not doing the same sort of damage as a 10% increase in general energy costs. So far it has been 1,516 homes. Australia will have something like 5,000,000 homes. That is bad, but entirely tolerable averaged over the continent - we build about that many homes in a month o…

The tourism industry in Victoria alone is directly worth $26B/year[1]. The main tourist areas outside of Melbourne are being evacuated today, in the middle of the prime summer holiday season.

In NSW tourism is worth $40B[2]. The situation is similar there.

Say this costs between 10 and 20% of that. That is roughlt $10B in direct costs this year alone.

Additionally your 10% additional cost of energy is nonsense. Australia hasn't had a functioning energy policy is 10 years, which is the primary reason costs are so high. Any kind of policy which both sides of politics agree on (at least roughly!) will provide investment certainty and cut that cost.

[1] https://www.business.vic.gov.au/tourism-industry-resources/t...

[2] https://invest.nsw.gov.au/sector-opportunities/tourism

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#182

Post by flukus » Thu, Jan 02, 2020, 10:43 PM UTC

roenxi wrote: post #155

pjc50 wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Greta was effectively chosen by the press. Yours is a standard attack line, because it allows you to pretend that it's only her saying this, and ignore all the thousands of others who've been saying similar things, from the IPCC to the Green Parties of the world.

Then they should find a spokeswoman among all those thousands who is both charismatic and also competent. A line of attack being standard doesn't make it bad. Putting forward a child to speak to world leaders and get worked up on behalf of other children isn't going to do the movement any favours. Greta is a puppet chosen because someone cynically thinks that putting a child on stage is going to tug on people's heart…

It doesn't matter who they pick, deniers are great diverting attention to smearing the person to take focus away from the issue, just take a look at how many still "herp derp al gore".

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#183

Post by nl » Thu, Jan 02, 2020, 10:43 PM UTC

yassam wrote: post #167

sangnoir wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many peoples health has deteriorated due to inhaling particulates from the fires - what was the cost? How many man-hours have been spent fighting the fires? How many cancelled film shoots, or other outdoor events? How much tourism revenue was lost? The list is endless. Looking just at the number of homes seems very narrow - there's a myriad of costs (direct and indirect)

Hundreds, possibly thousands of deaths, are predicted from smoke inhalation: https://insidestory.org.au/slow-burn/

Someone dropped dead on the Canberra airport tarmac from smoke induced respiratory issues as soon as the got off the plane.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/incidents/woma...

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#184

Post by bjowen » Thu, Jan 02, 2020, 10:53 PM UTC

akvadrako wrote: post #162

Intermernet wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is misinformation happily spread by the Australian media, who are hand in hand with the fossil fuel and forestry lobbiests. The Australian green party has supported hazard reduction burning for many years. The activists you mention have had pretty much zero influence on what hazard reduction has been done. The current government cut the budget for the fire service so drastically that they lost about 60% of the q…

In summary, you are saying that controlled burns were reduced and they would have helped, it's just that the protests against them weren't significant? Also seems like the Australian media supported the protestors: http://joannenova.com.au/2020/01/abc-deleting-facebook-posts...

That’s a claim you should not read uncritically, given where it is published — the site is a “climate skeptic” page, and the claim it is trying to advance is that the national broadcaster is being manipulated, or at the centre of a vast left-wing conspiracy, that has inexplicably ruined the country, despite having apparently not convinced its audience to vote for a left-wing party.

Here’s the thing: the reportage of the protest was on a local-news Facebook page maintained by the national broadcaster and was not reported more widely at the time (September 2019). You can find the post cached, it doesn’t read as being in favour or opposition to the protest. But it did contain the names and faces of the (two) protesters.

The planned burn zone is in the one of the current fire-affected areas - although probably not the massive ones you’ve been reading about, 500 miles away.

The article posted asks whether the area of the planned burn “has now been completed by Mother Nature” alongside screen grabs of the cached article, and you can see the tenor of the comments section what sorts of feelings that provokes.

It’s pretty reasonable to assume that the post was deleted to protect two protesters from harassment.

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#185

Post by rs23296008n1 » Thu, Jan 02, 2020, 11:03 PM UTC

Cogito wrote: post #124

shimms wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The town of Mallacoota is essentially surrounded by a moat of fire at the moment. The residents are trapped inside this ring, one part of which is the ocean. The Navy, as well as supplying, are evacuating people off the beach as there is no other safe way out of that part of the country at the moment.

I'll add here because parent is flagged, but the fires can get so hot that the radiant heat will kill you from 100m away. The firestorms suck up all the oxygen, and can cause massive 'fire tornadoes' that have literally flipped a fire truck onto its back. It's not a question of 'just' sending the trucks in.

You can definitely just send the trucks in. Whether anyone will be actually alive a few minutes later is a very different proposition. I'd advise against it. People underestimate just how hot fire can get and what it actually means to operate next to and within an environment that is essentially a furnace. A furnace that stretches all around you and up into the sky and is moving all the time. The air is hot and thick. Your protective gear is hot. Embers are flying around and if they touch something flammable they become a fresh new fire.

A few "trees across the road" means many minutes to clear that road. Which is surrounded by fire. Or soon will be. That wind could change any minute. Or the logs are still smouldering or on fire. So you clear the road and then a few hundred metres later you reach more fallen trees and massive ditch you can't pass. Now the fire has crossed the road behind you.

Sure, why not drive through all that?

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#186

Post by roenxi » Thu, Jan 02, 2020, 11:04 PM UTC

flukus wrote: post #182

roenxi wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then they should find a spokeswoman among all those thousands who is both charismatic and also competent. A line of attack being standard doesn't make it bad. Putting forward a child to speak to world leaders and get worked up on behalf of other children isn't going to do the movement any favours. Greta is a puppet chosen because someone cynically thinks that putting a child on stage is going to tug on people's heart…

It doesn't matter who they pick, deniers are great diverting attention to smearing the person to take focus away from the issue, just take a look at how many still "herp derp al gore".

It goes without saying that someone proposing we roll back our living standards and give up on the material comforts of the late modern era is going to have their character examined. It is reminiscent of the hazing process for candidates in major democratic roles.

That does not make the flaws are irrelevant. She is being suggested as a leader but she is in no position to actually provide leadership.

Al Gore also had a long list of problems, but he was much more respectable than Greta.

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#187

Post by roenxi » Thu, Jan 02, 2020, 11:09 PM UTC

yassam wrote: post #167

sangnoir wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many peoples health has deteriorated due to inhaling particulates from the fires - what was the cost? How many man-hours have been spent fighting the fires? How many cancelled film shoots, or other outdoor events? How much tourism revenue was lost? The list is endless. Looking just at the number of homes seems very narrow - there's a myriad of costs (direct and indirect)

Hundreds, possibly thousands of deaths, are predicted from smoke inhalation: https://insidestory.org.au/slow-burn/

> The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW 2016, Begg 2007) has estimated that about 3000 deaths (equivalent to about 28,000 years of life lost) are attributable to urban air pollution in Australia each year (Figure ATM29). [0]

Ouch. That is bad. It does require a response. However it is close enough to normal that it wouldn't change any rational decisions about our energy mix. This crisis is small enough that we only need to respond to the threats directly, without winding in a decarbonisation scheme that doesn't actually do anything.

[0] https://soe.environment.gov.au/theme/ambient-air-quality/top...

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#188

Post by Cogito » Thu, Jan 02, 2020, 11:18 PM UTC

rs23296008n1 wrote: post #185

Cogito wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll add here because parent is flagged, but the fires can get so hot that the radiant heat will kill you from 100m away. The firestorms suck up all the oxygen, and can cause massive 'fire tornadoes' that have literally flipped a fire truck onto its back. It's not a question of 'just' sending the trucks in.

You can definitely just send the trucks in. Whether anyone will be actually alive a few minutes later is a very different proposition. I'd advise against it. People underestimate just how hot fire can get and what it actually means to operate next to and within an environment that is essentially a furnace. A furnace that stretches all around you and up into the sky and is moving all the time. The air is hot and thick…

I watched a video [0] of a 'flash-over' of a firetruck, scary as hell.

I've no idea how someone could propose to evacuate people through conditions like that.

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jvy2siEwOZ0

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#189

Post by roenxi » Thu, Jan 02, 2020, 11:18 PM UTC

Hallucinaut wrote: post #176

roenxi wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We do support research and development in renewable technologies. It gets farmed out to China because they are better at building things cost effectively than we are [0, 1]. And again, while Australia is quite strong per-capita, renewable energy is a very hot focus in any number of research universities with billions of dollars being spent globally with results that are nothing short of miraculous. It isn't obvious t…

A close friend worked at a cutting edge solar farm organisation in Victoria and from everything he's told me, these opinions are way off base. There is legitimate, marginally viable technology honed and perfected in Australia that always remains on the cusp because of endemic favourable treatment for fossil fuel and lack of strong support and willingness to invest. To argue that the quality of life would be hit by ch…

Funnily enough I argue against the construction of roads too and I don't own a car. So I suppose at least I am consistent, eh?

Cars are unsafe, expensive and make cities unwalkable. I would rather Australia beefed up its train network & river freight rather than this mania for cars.

> There is legitimate, marginally viable technology honed and perfected in Australia that always remains on the cusp because of endemic favourable treatment for fossil fuel and lack of strong support and willingness to invest.

Sounds pretty marginal, he might not be factoring in the consequences for grid stability in his calculations. It isn't just a raw numbers game.

> Also the suggestion that Australian research cannot make a difference I find unfathomable.

We are doing research, it probably is making a difference. If you go to UNSW the first building you run in to is the great big energy research facility. It wouldn't be too hard to get support for more research into better energy if anyone cared. And for all people blame the Australian right for coal they are the ones who push for dropping the effective ban on nuclear power in Australia and maybe doing some R & D on that front. It was much more promising technology than solar for most of the lest 50 years.

Re: Wildfires Are Raging Outside Every Major City in Australia

#190

Post by yassam » Thu, Jan 02, 2020, 11:25 PM UTC

crispinb wrote: post #175

bjowen wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“The margins” also unfortunately include the perpetually outraged Alan Jones, and every policy pie his pudgy fingers poke. +1 on your diagnosis of the cultural problem.

Yes absolutely, of course. No-one can deny the outsized political significance of those margins along many dimensions (marginal rural constituencies, the Liberal/Nat/LNP right-wing factions, Alan Jones' grumpy gossiping old men, perpetually outraged about anything done by anyone under 60, the Murdoch press, etc). I guess my point is that these extreme margins gain their power only because of the nihilism of the skitt…

Good analysis.

I've recently been reading The Australian online, and any time there's a climate related article, there are literally 100s of comments almost all of which are rabid climate deniers. It's stomach churning to read.

No idea how representative of general population, but my gut-feeling is that it's a significant minority, e.g. 10-20%.