What Will Happen in the 2020s • Hacker News Board

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#201

Post by majewsky » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 8:20 PM UTC

gfodor wrote: post #63

I predict the 2020's will turn out to be the most difficult-to-predict decade yet. The predictions of the OP in my mind fail to account for several yet-to-mature disruptive technologies that will potentially transform our society to the degree the Internet and web have. The only prediction I'll make is in the domain where I work: By the end of the decade, most people will be wearing some kind of immersive computing d…

> People will routinely 'beam in' each other (similar to FaceTime conceptually, but with no visual or auditory perceptual deficiency vs being together in person) in varying contexts for varying purposes.

This made me laugh. We haven't even figured out how to do telephone conferences reliably. I'm still waiting for a telco that does not have the obligatory "You're breaking up" or "I cannot see the screenshare" or "Oh sorry, my microphone was still on mute" or whatever somewhere in between.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#202

Post by buboard » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 8:21 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #187

buboard wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

immigration requires opportunity, and opportunity is becoming increasingly scarce in europe. it's more likely, lots of capital will be reallocated towards the growing parts of africa

Immigration doesn't require opportunity if you're fleeing from drug cartels or islamist death squads.

that's a very small number; and they re refugees

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#203

Post by tjoff » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 8:21 PM UTC

RivieraKid wrote: post #180

mymythisisthis wrote: post #126

All cars will be required to have dashcams. Either by insurance companies or by governments. All cars will be required to have GPS, and be tracked in real time. This is already the case with the majority of commercial vehicles. Incremental steps in autonomous cars, first starting with 'drone' cars. Cars and trucks that are operated from a remote location. This will be piggy backed on existing technology. Cheap camera…

The GPS thing is unlikely, what would be the rationale of that? This would be a very unpopular policy.

That ship has already sailed.

In Europe all new cars, since 2018, must be able to automatically call emergency services and provide GPS coordinates in the case of a collision.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ECall

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#204

Post by nine_k » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 8:22 PM UTC

gfodor wrote: post #63

I predict the 2020's will turn out to be the most difficult-to-predict decade yet. The predictions of the OP in my mind fail to account for several yet-to-mature disruptive technologies that will potentially transform our society to the degree the Internet and web have. The only prediction I'll make is in the domain where I work: By the end of the decade, most people will be wearing some kind of immersive computing d…

Most humans on Earth don't want to be hugged by a stranger. Privacy and all that.

And for those few we really care to hug, we most often care enough for to be around anyway.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#205

Post by rishirishi » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 8:23 PM UTC

ken wrote: post #161

PaulAJ wrote: post #32

Any prediction of decentralisation of the Internet, or anything built on it, needs to explain how this will overcome the economies of scale (1 big data centre is cheaper than 1000 little ones) and the network effects (everyone buys and sells through Amazon because thats where you find the most buyers and sellers).

I assumed that was covered by #8 ("The biggest consumer technology successes of this decade will be in the area of privacy"), somewhat by #9 ("Millennials and Gen-Z will be running many institutions"), and mostly the second half of #5 ("a killer decentralized consumer app"). Network effects of centralization explain why current big companies prefer to build centralized services -- but the next big idea never comes fr…

> All we need is the right software

Who authors and maintains this software? And what is their incentive?

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#206

Post by hanniabu » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 8:23 PM UTC

criddell wrote: post #188

RivieraKid wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The GPS thing is unlikely, what would be the rationale of that? This would be a very unpopular policy.

The rationale is taxation. As more cars go electric they have to replace the gasoline tax.

I would think it should be the other way around where gas cars would need to pay carbon tax. Or we can just call it even. Or in a hopeful scenario, stop oil and gas subsidies.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#207

Post by roenxi » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 8:24 PM UTC

wallace_f wrote: post #167

ianai wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wish these billionaires with good intentions would invest in marketing to revamp public nuclear sentiment. There’s clearly the possibility of progress given how effective other political campaigns are.

If most billionaires are optimizing for social image / good will, your idea makes no sense to most of those people.

On inspection, if they are optimising for social image / good will then a marketing campaign is the obvious starting point.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#208

Post by rishirishi » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 8:24 PM UTC

dclowd9901 wrote: post #135

rishirishi wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This. And who will constitute these 1000's of decentralized nodes?

Free remote data storage + cell phone mesh network?

Who pays for the "free remote data storage"? And who writes the software for the cell phone mesh network?

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#209

Post by bransonf » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 8:25 PM UTC

A few good takes, but China becoming the dominant global power? Not a good take.

China is fairly good at a few things, namely lending money and manufacturing goods.

What they aren’t good at is making people happy. See Hong Kong for the last 6 months.

I don’t think the United States is becoming increasingly isolationist. I think we’ve seen a brief period of these attitudes, but it’s not indicative of the next decade imo.

And the author seems to think China will be able to rapidly adapt to change, pointing to global warming.

China is the world’s worst source of pollution. I don’t think they’re going to 180, especially since their economy is built on it.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#210

Post by hanniabu » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 8:25 PM UTC

ohazi wrote: post #136

FreeHugs wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1 big data centre is cheaper than 1000 little ones There are billions of computers out there that are idle most of the time. Utilizing them might very well be cheaper then building and maintaining a new datacenter. everyone buys and sells through Amazon because thats where you find the most buyers and sellers Not everyone. Not even the majority. Even in the USA which is Amazons biggest market, their market share is l…

> There are billions of computers out there that are idle most of the time. They will remain idle unltil untethered energy and bandwidth become free. I won't let you use my phone's spare cycles and murder my battery while we're still using lipo cells that degrade after 2 years with regular use.

> They will remain idle unltil untethered energy and bandwidth become free

unless you tie it to an incentive, and thus you arrive at cryptocurrencies