141–150 of 692 posts
I would take a pessimistic view on #8: > Mass surveillance by governments and corporations will become normal and expected this decade and people will increasingly turn to new products and services to protect themselves from surveillance. The biggest consumer technology successes of this decade will be in the area of privacy. I'd take this a step further and fear that not only will it become the norm, even making use…
I predict the 2020's will turn out to be the most difficult-to-predict decade yet. The predictions of the OP in my mind fail to account for several yet-to-mature disruptive technologies that will potentially transform our society to the degree the Internet and web have. The only prediction I'll make is in the domain where I work: By the end of the decade, most people will be wearing some kind of immersive computing d…
Or instantly punch anyone on earth in the face. Based on how the last decade went, I’m not optimistic.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The tech track towards full perceptual override in this current generation of VR is fairly well understood and has been on track, though slightly delayed, for approx 7 years now, with the current Oculus Quest device being the best available, and something many of us in the industry felt was almost a dream possibility a few short years ago. So I'm fairly optimistic that the tech will mature to a point where it is effo…
“Full perceptual override”?
I predict the 2020's will turn out to be the most difficult-to-predict decade yet. The predictions of the OP in my mind fail to account for several yet-to-mature disruptive technologies that will potentially transform our society to the degree the Internet and web have. The only prediction I'll make is in the domain where I work: By the end of the decade, most people will be wearing some kind of immersive computing d…
From the same technological situation you describe I can only think of how people would use that only to further isolate themselves. At least today, physical location sometimes dictate you have to interact with people outside of your own social class and background. What you describe could reduce that, making every one retreat even further into their echo chamber.
People already live in close proximity to millions in cities. They generally don't hug each other; more fixated on rushing past each other, avoiding eye contact.
Humans just aren't made for having 7 billion friends...
https://web.archive.org/web/20200101163454/https://avc.com/2...
Time is running out: please help the Internet Archive today. The average donation is $45. If everyone chips in $5, we can keep our website independent, strong and ad-free. That's right, all we need is the price of a paperback book to sustain a non-profit library the whole world depends on. We have only 150 staff but run one of the world’s top websites. We’re dedicated to reader privacy so we never track you. We never…
(I was also going to suggest nominating Internet Archive as a charity for Humble Bundle purchases as well, but it seems like they no longer support choosing your own charities.)
Any prediction of decentralisation of the Internet, or anything built on it, needs to explain how this will overcome the economies of scale (1 big data centre is cheaper than 1000 little ones) and the network effects (everyone buys and sells through Amazon because thats where you find the most buyers and sellers).
Peer-to-peer models last thrived when connectivity was predominantly symmetric (e.g., the early days of DSL) and faded quickly as asymmetric connectivity became mainstream. I think the decline of decentralization and the rise of asymmetric connectivity are intertwined; neither necessarily caused the other, but they are correlated. One could argue asymmetric connectivity became popular because users only wanted to consume rather than share/serve. But similarly, people stopped sharing and serving because their connectivity discouraged that use case.
Today, symmetric connectivity is returning, such as in the form of 1G/1G fiber connections to the home. Combine this with infinite static IP addresses, and ever rising edge compute capacity, and I think decentralization is inevitable. I won't predict the magnitude, but as a fan of decentralization, I personally hope it is at least significant.
6 is a big NO. The most part of diseases of this decade are caused by plant based diets. Humans need meat, without it we get sick. B12 can't be found in plants, there are plenty studies that shows how sick we get if we eat ONLY plants.
I'm not sure if you are being serious. Approximately 3% of the US population claim to be 100% plant-based, and you are saying that this 3% is responsible for most part of diseases?
Any prediction of decentralisation of the Internet, or anything built on it, needs to explain how this will overcome the economies of scale (1 big data centre is cheaper than 1000 little ones) and the network effects (everyone buys and sells through Amazon because thats where you find the most buyers and sellers).
1 big data centre is cheaper than 1000 little ones There are billions of computers out there that are idle most of the time. Utilizing them might very well be cheaper then building and maintaining a new datacenter. everyone buys and sells through Amazon because thats where you find the most buyers and sellers Not everyone. Not even the majority. Even in the USA which is Amazons biggest market, their market share is l…
Re: Amazon: Most of the other venues you mention are secondary markets for the exact same sellers. People have their own Shopify, Etsy, Ebay, etc., storefront but then also sell on Amazon because that's where so much of the market is. As far as I can tell it's an increasing trend in that direction.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> This will affect nearly every industry in terms of economics, some sectors potentially catastrophically like long distance transportation, but the biggest effect will be degree to which we will become able to empathize with others around the world and create novel, deeply impactful forms of interacting with others in a physical and emotional sense. Careful. I remember reading similar sentiments about the web in the…
I remember when Second Life was predicted to transform everything from Education to basic human interaction.
I remember the early hype, but then read a few interviews with users/losers who were just escaping reality.