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What Will Happen in the 2020s

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Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#71

Post by warent »

chukye wrote: post #31

6 is a big NO. The most part of diseases of this decade are caused by plant based diets. Humans need meat, without it we get sick. B12 can't be found in plants, there are plenty studies that shows how sick we get if we eat ONLY plants.

I'm not sure how you reconcile this with the existence of healthy individuals who have eaten nothing but plants for decades. I myself have not eaten meat in about 5 years, and I just had a health check-up with full blood work. My doctor said "whatever you're doing, keep doing. You're healthy and I don't recommend changing a thing."

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#72

Post by jstimpfle »

gfodor wrote: post #63

I predict the 2020's will turn out to be the most difficult-to-predict decade yet. The predictions of the OP in my mind fail to account for several yet-to-mature disruptive technologies that will potentially transform our society to the degree the Internet and web have. The only prediction I'll make is in the domain where I work: By the end of the decade, most people will be wearing some kind of immersive computing d…

What are your thoughts considering that VR was supposed to be the next big thing in the 90s already (at least from what I remember hearing...) and what are your thoughts regarding human chemistry?

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#73

Post by chubot »

gz5 wrote: post #2

>5/ A decentralized internet will emerge, led initially by decentralized infrastructure services like storage, bandwidth, compute, etc. The emergence of decentralized consumer applications will be slow to take hold and a killer decentralized consumer app will not emerge until the latter part of the decade. The pendulum of history suggests this will occur (at some point), and I hope it happens sooner than later in man…

Maybe there will be a need for massive computing in remote areas: Antartica, or space. They need a lot of local storage and compute. And they have low bandwidth.

It's kind of like GPUs are in cars right now. You can't drive a Tesla with dumb sensors over the Internet -- you need smart local compute.

https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-self-driving-car-computer-...

So I guess IoT and doing heavy local computation is a technical reason you would need decentralization. I can see that happening for many use cases. I'm not sure if it will happen for the consumer web because centralization is more efficient and the current network effects are so ingrained. Similar to how Windows is still dominant on the desktop, but iOS/Android are perhaps more important platforms.

---

I think major changes in behavior are driven by new hardware -- phones in the 00's, PC's in the 80's, Internet in the 90's, etc.

People have been trying to push VR, but to me VIDEO is the real VR -- more stuff happens there and more people use it. I was chatting with a friend yesterday and observed that YouTube is basically what "SecondLife" was supposed to be. People are exchanging all kinds of valuable information and entertainment on YouTube.

So if you need to process a lot of video locally for some reason, that could be a killer app for decentralization. Just like a self-driving car, although I'm bearish on self-driving impacting the average consumer in the next 10 years. I think it will continue to be cheaper to operate rideshares with human drivers in most parts of the world and most terrains/climates.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#74

Post by chukye »

yes_man wrote: post #58
chukye wrote: post #31

6 is a big NO. The most part of diseases of this decade are caused by plant based diets. Humans need meat, without it we get sick. B12 can't be found in plants, there are plenty studies that shows how sick we get if we eat ONLY plants.

There are indeed people who have medical conditions that make their life dangerous with a plant-based diet. For people without such conditions (the majority of people), science on negative effects of plant-based diet seems to focus on certain deficiencies (such as deficiency of zinc and iron, or omega-3 EPA and DHA fatty acids). These deficiencies can be avoided by consuming specific plant-based sources, such as cert…

Nice discussion folks.. BUT, there is an argument that never makes sense to me "the nature ecosystem could never sustain current amounts of meat consumption", so how can nature sustain amounts of PLANT consumption IF we all change it to plant-based diets? This does not make sense since for 1 piece of meat we need to eat dozen of different plants; plants as food have a huge impact in nature too.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#75

Post by ivan_gammel »

travisoneill1 wrote: post #8

> 4/ Countries will create and promote digital/crypto versions of their fiat currencies, led by China who moves first and benefits the most from this move. The US will be hamstrung by regulatory restraints and will be slow to move, allowing other countries and regions to lead the crypto sector. Asian crypto exchanges, unchecked by cumbersome regulatory restraints in Europe and the US and leveraging decentralized fina…

Trust is not binary in the world of finance. It is a measurable quantity and it’s equal to the premium investors are willing to pay. If the market is attractive enough people will invest in the hell.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#76

Post by sagichmal »

geoah wrote: post #10
gz5 wrote: post #2

>5/ A decentralized internet will emerge, led initially by decentralized infrastructure services like storage, bandwidth, compute, etc. The emergence of decentralized consumer applications will be slow to take hold and a killer decentralized consumer app will not emerge until the latter part of the decade. The pendulum of history suggests this will occur (at some point), and I hope it happens sooner than later in man…

ipfs, dat, zeronet I think are good examples of the sparks you are looking for. These are outside of the blockchain world of compute/storage as a service attempts that got started suring the ico goldrush and seem to be doing quite well for themselves.

> ipfs, dat, zeronet I think are good examples of the sparks you are looking for.

All of these things are failures?

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#77

Post by WaltPurvis »

Mountain_Skies wrote: post #54
throwlaplace wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>1. China will fall to internal strife of some kind. Still may maintain power, but famine and mass executions / disappearances will occur. >6. Saudi Arabia will have a violent revolution why do people make these kinds of predictions. they're so uninformed it's beyond the pale. china and SA are two of the most authoritarian and simultaneously well-funded (effective and efficient) governments on the planets -- we're no…

Many were alive when the Soviet Union and the Iron Curtain fell. That makes such large upheavals believable. The weakness of authoritarian regimes is that by their nature dissention is hidden. Those in charge aren't really aware of how far they're overshooting until it's too late to release some of the pressure. I don't understand Chinese culture or their current situation enough to say whether or not they're in dang…

If anyone predicted in 1985 that a mere 7 years later the Soviet Union would no longer exist and Germany would be reunited, and it would all happen with essentially no violence, people would have derided them mercilessly.

Monumental changes can happen, and shockingly quickly.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#78

Post by trentnix »

chiefalchemist wrote: post #65
trentnix wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Failed to progress forward" - what are you talking about? The United States - and really the world as a whole - has enjoyed its most prosperous time in all of human history during Gen-X's window of contribution.

Yes. But that prosperity came with a massive balloon payment in the form of climate change. What's label prosperity today will be "Grand ma, WTF were y'all thinking?" Long to short, the jury is still out on the actual success of Gen-X.

I'm not buying the climate change alarmism.

The climate has changed and will change. Some of that change (although I think its a small part) will be influenced by human activity. The Earth will adjust. Humanity will adjust. And humanity will continue to flourish.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#79

Post by rubidium »

amursft wrote: post #42

Good predictions. Didn't mention distributed/remote work. Not sure if that's because it's so obvious a trend as to be boring? I think he's early on the plant-based diet prediction, but correct in 20-30 years. Actually a lot of these seem like trends that might take more than 10 years, but have a high chance of being correct eventually.

Distributed work will continue to be a minor thing prevalent mainly in tech circles. Human nature doesn’t change on 10 year timescales. We’re tribal beings who organize around work and family.

Best Buy’s pullback from it for their office staff is instructive.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#80

Post by Juliate »

Mountain_Skies wrote: post #54
throwlaplace wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>1. China will fall to internal strife of some kind. Still may maintain power, but famine and mass executions / disappearances will occur. >6. Saudi Arabia will have a violent revolution why do people make these kinds of predictions. they're so uninformed it's beyond the pale. china and SA are two of the most authoritarian and simultaneously well-funded (effective and efficient) governments on the planets -- we're no…

Many were alive when the Soviet Union and the Iron Curtain fell. That makes such large upheavals believable. The weakness of authoritarian regimes is that by their nature dissention is hidden. Those in charge aren't really aware of how far they're overshooting until it's too late to release some of the pressure. I don't understand Chinese culture or their current situation enough to say whether or not they're in dang…

Well, Soviet Union (hence the Iron Curtain itself) were not really _well funded_ anymore when they fell. The system they had in place was completely failing.

Edit: or maybe I'm wrong. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_the_Soviet_Unio...

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