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Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

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Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#331

Post by erik998 »

brownbat wrote: post #195

This is a really interesting addition to the literature if you dig through it, with subtle distinctions between income gains and wealth gains and interactions with demographics. It's not a simple "college ain't what it used to be" story. The biggest puzzle is how to explain why recent grads still command significantly higher incomes than nongrads without accumulating significantly more wealth. Increasing tuition is a…

Funny, every time I hear these stories about the declining value of college I always think why that is. Is the premium declining because so many people can at least have a chance to finance an education now? Is that really bad?

Whenever I hear someone say they don't need to go to college, I remind them Mark Zuckerberg was at Philips Exeter (2019 tuition 49k), Bill Gates and Paul Allen at Lakeside School (2019 tuition 36k), Reid Hoffman attended Putney School (2019 tuition and boarding 56k). Many of the people that make pronouncements about college not being a necessity came from wealthy backgrounds or went to the upper crust of private high schools in America. In fact whenever someone makes these crazy suggestions I suggest you look up their background and it will usually be wealthy family/private high school.

I will grant Bezos and Thiel being the exception to private schools but still they came from upper middle class / wealth backgrounds...

These individuals could do without college. The hard work and preparation at their high schools put them through a grueling curriculum. If they have enough discipline to graduate from these high schools they would have been a success with or without college.

Unless you are in similar situation, please go to college and graduate. Specific degrees do not really matter just graduate so you don't get sidelined late in your career.

I still hear people say it is not necessary. It probably isn't really necessary for most IT roles but once youthful enthusiasm runs out, every employer will look to replace you. Do not think they will value your experience and loyalty.

Another counterpoint, if it was the case a college education is not necessary to succeed at Silicon Valley, why do these firms have a difficult time hiring black or hispanic employees... Sure college may be useless for some but please don't peddle this garbage in the face of reality.

So either the Silicon Valley firms are racist and are OK with having employees that never went to college as long as they look a certain way or this is all bunk in an effort to hire young enthusiastic employees that have no room to negotiate after a certain age...

As we just saw many wealthy families bribe their children into an Ok college... I bet all the wealthy people above will make sure their children attend college. I will bet all their wives and friends went to college. I will bet they never shared a beer with friends that never went to college.

Please don't be stupid. Finish college, learn something that interest you, give back to society.

Maybe all these policy discussions are bunk and every child in America should expect the same quality of education a student at Exeter would demand.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#332

Post by kevindong »

kerkeslager wrote: post #118

One thing I don't see talked about a lot is the risk involved in going to college. All the frequently-cited studies about college look at the incomes of college graduates versus the incomes of non-college graduates, and then compare that to the cost of education, and that generally looks fairly positive. But of students who enroll in 4-year programs, only 60% graduate within 6 years[1]. For these students, college ha…

The 6 year graduation heavily differs based upon selectivity of the university in question. From one of the related tables linked in your source [0]:

> Graduating within 6 years after start, males and female

> 2011 starting cohort: 60.4%

> Open admissions: 30.7%

> >=90% accepted: 42.3%

> 75-89.9% accepted: 57.8%

> 50-74.9% accepted: 62.0%

> 25-49.9% accepted: 70.3%

> [0]: https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d18/tables/dt18_326.10.a...

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#333

Post by non-entity »

emodendroket wrote: post #201
mooreds wrote: post #156

I have some kids and college is about a decade away for them, so this is pretty timely. I remember reading a post in the 2000s about whether the internet (or, more precisely, some application built on the internet) would do the same thing to colleges as Craigslist did to the newspapers. Peel off the valuable bits and by doing so disaggregate and destroy/heavily damage the institution. Still waiting for this to happen…

I have a degree, but not in CS, and after seven years in the industry I still occasionally come across recruiters who treat me like I must have no idea what I'm doing, or interviewers acting like I must be a genius for solving easy problems. It's got to be worse if you have no degree at all. I'd tread carefully.

When my coworker discovered the other week that I didn't have a degree, he straight up told me a couple of years ago, the company wouldnt have even thought about hiring me.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#334

Post by non-entity »

tmpz22 wrote: post #4
ryanmercer wrote: post #2

I don't have a degree and am constantly told in rejections by potential employers, and my own employer when applying for advancement, that they are looking for degree holders. Many job listings also flat out state a 4-year degree is a minimum. A degree would absolutely, positively, beyond any shadow of a doubt improve my chances of increasing my income. At my current job only about 7%. But the tens of thousands of do…

Would you be willing to name names? Outside of government and defense contractors I personally have not run into any blocks from not having a degree, but I am in the SV bubble where up is down so I have a heavy bias.

Not OP, I applied to a Wells Fargo job in Charlotte that wouldn't even let me continue the application after entering that I did not have a degree. This was about maybe 3 or so years ago. I had talked to several recruiters about jobs at various companies (from consulting firms to small businesses) which cut communication after learning I dont have a degree. Most recently was a few months back when I talked to a recruiter about a job I was "perfect for" in Atlanta, he called me back later that day to say he couldnt submit me because "the position required a degree". I work at a fortune 500 company, and one of my coworkers straight up admitted the company wouldnt have hired me a few years ago.

These are just the example I could remember at the moment, I'm sure there have been more.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#335

Post by kerkeslager »

kevindong wrote: post #332
kerkeslager wrote: post #118

One thing I don't see talked about a lot is the risk involved in going to college. All the frequently-cited studies about college look at the incomes of college graduates versus the incomes of non-college graduates, and then compare that to the cost of education, and that generally looks fairly positive. But of students who enroll in 4-year programs, only 60% graduate within 6 years[1]. For these students, college ha…

The 6 year graduation heavily differs based upon selectivity of the university in question. From one of the related tables linked in your source [0]: > Graduating within 6 years after start, males and female > 2011 starting cohort: 60.4% > Open admissions: 30.7% > >=90% accepted: 42.3% > 75-89.9% accepted: 57.8% > 50-74.9% accepted: 62.0% > 25-49.9% accepted: 70.3% > [0]: https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d18/table…

Yes, this is one of the problems: many schools are letting in students who are unlikely to succeed without extra help, and not providing that help.

Many students who enter college lack the prerequisite knowledge to complete even introductory college classes, and are placed in remedial classes. These classes don't count for college credit, but cost the same as college classes there's a limited pool of financial aid available to a student, and typically this pool is smaller for remedial students, who are less likely to qualify for merit-based aid. The results are devastating: only 9.5% of remedial students graduate from two year programs within three years, and only 35.1% of remedial students graduate from four year programs within six years.

[1] https://postsecondary.gatesfoundation.org/remedial/

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#337

Post by vasilipupkin »

mlyle wrote: post #282
vasilipupkin wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

no, that’s completely wrong. You are confusing averages and conditional probabilities. On average, those from higher classes may do better - that doesn’t mean that a kid from s lower social class should take that as guidance. It means we should try to erase or lessen differences of opportunities between classes. Some of these differences are probably innate. A brain surgeon is likely smart and his kids are probably a…

> no, that’s completely wrong. You are confusing averages and conditional probabilities. On average, those from higher classes may do better - that doesn’t mean that a kid from s lower social class should take that as guidance. ??? You're saying that someone should not consider the outcome distribution of people similarly situated to themselves when making a choice? Isn't that completely rejecting empiricism? If, fro…

“??? You're saying that someone should not consider the outcome distribution of people similarly situated to themselves when making a choice? Isn't that completely rejecting empiricism?“

No, what I’m saying is presence of a statistical pattern in a whole population is not evidence that we shouldn’t make policy to change it. Statistically, those who live in Miami are more tan than those who live in Wisconsin, on average. But if you expose a Wisconsin resident to the same amount of sun, on average they will be just as tan.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#338

Post by Akababa »

dahart wrote: post #307
Akababa wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like you're talking past a lot of the other commenters in this thread. I'll try to frame it another way: Generating value is synonymous with growing the economy and being more productive. You can't inflate incomes without either increasing productivity or printing money. If degree holders command higher incomes without offering higher productivity, it comes at the expense of non-degree holders earning lower wa…

I totally agree that a big factor in income differences is due to cultural biases that favor degree holders. I don’t think degrees are economically zero value though, for example patents are primarily held by inventors with postgraduate degrees, and more businesses are started by degree holders. I’m not really sure how to answer your first part, I’m not trying to talk past anyone, but I feel like people are respondin…

Right, so the issue with the income premium without economic growth argument is that the government would have collected those incomes anyway, just from different people (unless the student loans are structured as a % of future earnings, in which case I apologize for my ignorance).

Of course, degrees aren't zero value, but the subsidies for education (student loans) could still be distorting supply in a way that results in a net loss for the government. For example, a self-taught engineer or entrepreneur spends years in school instead of inventing or starting businesses. This is a poor allocation of investment and human capital which results in a net economic loss (including a loss for the government).

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#339

Post by losvedir »

sansnomme wrote: post #327
losvedir wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Zuckerberg and Gates would have been elite if they’d never worked a day in their lives. What do you mean by that? Zuckerberg and Gates are indisputably elite because they're two of the richest people in the world. But I wouldn't call them elite beforehand, and definitely not if they didn't work a day in their lives. Their parents' money seems to come from being a lawyer, a dentist, and a psychiatrist. That's not "e…

Gates' family was in banking, Zuckerberg attended Phillips Exeter. Neither were hardly "Middle Class".

I didn't call them "Middle Class". I said they weren't elite. While elite people are in banking and elite people go to Phillips Exeter, it doesn't follow that everyone who does those things is elite.

You could argue a much lower threshold for elite, which is fine, but then it's quite a bait and switch to lead with Zuckerberg and Gates for that category.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#340

Post by sansnomme »

losvedir wrote: post #339
sansnomme wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gates' family was in banking, Zuckerberg attended Phillips Exeter. Neither were hardly "Middle Class".

I didn't call them "Middle Class". I said they weren't elite. While elite people are in banking and elite people go to Phillips Exeter, it doesn't follow that everyone who does those things is elite. You could argue a much lower threshold for elite, which is fine, but then it's quite a bait and switch to lead with Zuckerberg and Gates for that category.

I will just link to this.

https://philip.greenspun.com/bg/

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