Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#61

Post by yters » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 3:34 AM UTC

seem_2211 wrote: post #46

orange3xchicken wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Few people pursuing PhDs are doing so to maximize earning potential. Disregarding the mental toll of a PhD (one problem being that too many people want to be paid to think than there are available positions), I totally disagree with the parent poster's claim that graduate school is a rip-off. Just being in an an academic environment, being able to take classes, & studying around really smart people and doing research…

The argument you put forward doesn't make sense. It's not a ripoff to make close to minimum wage for a number of years (and possibly take on high levels of student loan debt), all to work in a field where there is an oversupply of labour that depresses wages? Ok...

My experience is the work in academia is more interesting and intellectually stimulating than my high paying tech jobs. That would be one motivation to go the academia route instead of the tech route.

If you come out the other end of a PhD, then you have the opportunity for best of both worlds: high paying job to work on the problems you find intellectually stimulating.

Also, it is cliche, but doing a PhD does train a person in a way to think that you don't necessarily pick up in a normal job.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#62

Post by monoideism » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 3:35 AM UTC

astura wrote: post #52

monoideism wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Look, I'm studying undergrad philosophy...Am I getting into debt? A fair bit.. Is it worth the trade off? I certainly think so. Will I say that five years after I graduate? Not sure but most likely. Spoiler. Been there, done that. Unless you're at an Ivy, if you're majoring in philosophy, you'll not think it was worth it in five years. My sin was Classics, but similar outcome. Assuming you're on HN because you're t…

Philosophy is a good undergrad choice if you're planning on going to law school. >Taking out $200,000, which is the going rate for most liberal arts 4-year-degrees The average student loan balance is $29,800 upon graduation. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/20/how-much-the-average-student...

"Average student loan balance" is not what I said. Average student loan balance includes:

1) Tons of scholarships, and

2) Non-liberal arts colleges (technical schools, professional schools, the scam schools advertised on TV, etc).

I also was thinking (although failed to specify) private liberal arts colleges. I stand by that figure. If you're taking out loans for a private liberal arts degree, it'll be over $100,000 and many will exceed $200,000.

Edit: Just read that it's supposedly $32,000 in loans for private 4-year degrees. I'm very skeptical of that Federal Reserve figure, since average tuition only for private 4-year degrees is somewhere around $35,000 per year. The Fed also has incentives to find ways to underplay this figure, just like they undercount unemployment. So I'm highly skeptical.

College Board estimates $14,610 per year is what students actually pay for tuition only. If you don't have wealthy or upper-middle-class parents, then you'll need to tack on living expenses and books. If you're not wealthy or upper-middle class, you'll take most of that out in loans, which will be well over $100,000 by graduation.

I know numerous students who have recently graduated with over $100,000 in loans from private 4-year colleges (no, not me, I graduated over 10 years ago, and all of my remaining loans are from a professional master's degree). I know several underemployed lawyers who have well over $200,000 in school loans that they'll likely never pay off.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#63

Post by yters » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 3:36 AM UTC

ransom1538 wrote: post #18

A person in our family is a specialized nurse. Two years of school, then some more training. $60hr any hour they "wish" to work. Saturdays/Sundays are $90hr, so is any hour after 8 hours. The demand is so high he just rejects work. If he wants to work in American Samoa or Miami: hired. I hired a person to install a garage door. $900 for an hour of work. My plumber wont show up for a 30 minute $300 job. I will call ag…

What prevents the MSc baristas from picking up a trade? Then they'd be highly educated and making some money.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#64

Post by mmmBacon » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 3:37 AM UTC

amiga_500 wrote: post #40

monoideism wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Skilled manual work. Cannot be outsourced. But it can be dramatically diluted through lenient immigration policies (and that's exactly what happened). Bottom line, you have to be clever stay on your toes to make it in today's economy, and even then you need lots of luck and excellent health. UBI would result in a much more just society.

UBI would just feed directly into rents because that's how prices are set. UBI would require land value tax to ensure the public value is capture for public spending. UBI alone is a land speculator wet dream and Yang is totally wrong to be pushing it without LVT. Yes in the middle of nowhere it can help, but most people are in cities and rents will rise there to current rent + UBI amount.

I totally agree UBI would just be a way to transfer money to landlords. Heck you could consider SV wages as UBI; salaries are high but that income is often spent on rent or mortgages. Stock money is spent on real estate.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#65

Post by astura » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 3:37 AM UTC

bootlooped wrote: post #60

virmundi wrote: post #32

Hopefully the US can take a page from the Germans and institute vocational schools. We look down on plumbers, electricians, etc. We constantly couch our praise of them with phrases like, "Wait until your knee gives". I have a MSCS from GA Tech. I've got about 18 years official experience. I get paid $95/hr. Plumbers? $120/hr. Electricians are about the same. We need them. Let's teach them. Maybe with apprenticeships.

Are plumbers actually working 40 billable hours a week? And how much are they working that is not billable (driving from site to site)? I would be surprised if they made more in a year than educated STEM professionals. The attention-getting per-hour rate might not be a great metric.

2018 median pay is $53,910 per year

https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/mobile/p...

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#66

Post by john_moscow » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 3:37 AM UTC

prepend wrote: post #34

ransom1538 wrote: post #18

A person in our family is a specialized nurse. Two years of school, then some more training. $60hr any hour they "wish" to work. Saturdays/Sundays are $90hr, so is any hour after 8 hours. The demand is so high he just rejects work. If he wants to work in American Samoa or Miami: hired. I hired a person to install a garage door. $900 for an hour of work. My plumber wont show up for a 30 minute $300 job. I will call ag…

You need some better contractors. I have multiple plumbers with same day service for $95 service calls. My garage door was installed for $400 and it took an afternoon. Obviously prices vary. I can make a living with a trade skill, but data shows I’m more likely to make a lot more with a college degree. You have billionaire dropouts and baristas with phds. But on average, degree nets you a lot of lifetime income. Mayb…

I would argue averaging across all degrees is makes no sense. STEM degrees do pay off. Liberal arts degrees can pay if you want to boost a specific skill and have a solid plan for using it. E.g. getting an English degree to become a more persuasive speaker while promoting your otherwise sound and solidly executed startup.

Aside from those 2 examples there are plenty of colleges with a business model of selling overpriced useless degrees to people who can't be bothered to do some due diligence before getting a loan. Those degrees won't pay off and despite sharing the "college" name, I wouldn't average between the 2 groups.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#67

Post by ransom1538 » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 3:39 AM UTC

prepend wrote: post #34

ransom1538 wrote: post #18

A person in our family is a specialized nurse. Two years of school, then some more training. $60hr any hour they "wish" to work. Saturdays/Sundays are $90hr, so is any hour after 8 hours. The demand is so high he just rejects work. If he wants to work in American Samoa or Miami: hired. I hired a person to install a garage door. $900 for an hour of work. My plumber wont show up for a 30 minute $300 job. I will call ag…

You need some better contractors. I have multiple plumbers with same day service for $95 service calls. My garage door was installed for $400 and it took an afternoon. Obviously prices vary. I can make a living with a trade skill, but data shows I’m more likely to make a lot more with a college degree. You have billionaire dropouts and baristas with phds. But on average, degree nets you a lot of lifetime income. Mayb…

"with same day service for $95 service calls"

That means they show up for $95. No work right? When they actually do something there is another charge right? Where you are? So confused.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#68

Post by Retric » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 3:40 AM UTC

astura wrote: post #52

monoideism wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Look, I'm studying undergrad philosophy...Am I getting into debt? A fair bit.. Is it worth the trade off? I certainly think so. Will I say that five years after I graduate? Not sure but most likely. Spoiler. Been there, done that. Unless you're at an Ivy, if you're majoring in philosophy, you'll not think it was worth it in five years. My sin was Classics, but similar outcome. Assuming you're on HN because you're t…

Philosophy is a good undergrad choice if you're planning on going to law school. >Taking out $200,000, which is the going rate for most liberal arts 4-year-degrees The average student loan balance is $29,800 upon graduation. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/20/how-much-the-average-student...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost

31% of students graduate with zero debt, that does not mean their tuition was free. Those balances also exclude loans taken out by parents to pay for collage.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#69

Post by djrobstep » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 3:41 AM UTC

amiga_500 wrote: post #40

monoideism wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Skilled manual work. Cannot be outsourced. But it can be dramatically diluted through lenient immigration policies (and that's exactly what happened). Bottom line, you have to be clever stay on your toes to make it in today's economy, and even then you need lots of luck and excellent health. UBI would result in a much more just society.

UBI would just feed directly into rents because that's how prices are set. UBI would require land value tax to ensure the public value is capture for public spending. UBI alone is a land speculator wet dream and Yang is totally wrong to be pushing it without LVT. Yes in the middle of nowhere it can help, but most people are in cities and rents will rise there to current rent + UBI amount.

The rent thing is a bad argument against UBI, because you can make the same argument about any program that benefits the poor - even if all the UBI money goes back into rent, UBI would equalise housing spend along the way, from rich to poor and from worker to non-worker, vastly reducing poverty.

Even for people not in poverty it would help even out their income over their life cycle - more money when they have kids, find themselves temporarily unemployed, or in retirement.

Certainly land rents are totally unjust and a huge problem, and land value tax/public housing/public land ownership would be great, but the case for UBI is compelling even without any of that.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#70

Post by AmericanChopper » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 3:42 AM UTC

50 wrote: post #16

Look, I'm studying undergraduate philosophy with no intention other than why not. Would I say I could learn the material on my own w/o college? Absolutely but I like the organized structure of college w/ professors, peers, etc. Am I getting into debt? A fair bit. Is it worth the trade off? I certainly think so. Will I say that five years from now? Most likely. Because here's the thing: education as a means to an end…

Do you think your opinion will change at all as time goes by and you’re left with a large debt to pay off, and a degree that you know will likely not have any impact on your earning potential? It’s great that you’re satisfying your intellectual needs. But a lot of people in your exact position eventually end up wanting other people to foot the bill.