> have a shred of good will after what they were doing for the last ten–twenty years
If by the "good will" you mean whether they are earnestly concerned with improving the quality of life of ordinary Russian citizens, then the answer is, most likely not.
But between this and the worst possible interpretation (oh, they must be doing this to allow the FSB easy access into everyone's phones) there are various other possible interpretations, involving various degrees of self-indulgence or maliciousness. Can it be cheap publicity or a symbolic gesture? The first sponsor of the legislation is a member of LDPR, a nationalist party which is obsessed with Russian identity and isolationism. Can it be part of the import substitution project that Russia has been pursuing (largely unsuccessfully, I understand?) since 2014, to loosen its dependency on foreign imports? Can it be a protectionist measure to help otherwise uncompetitive local businesses? I think any of these options is realistic enough to explain the existence of the bill, even without going all the way to regarding it as a covert Kremlin/FSB operation. Which of course it may be, but it is simply too early to tell. I am sure in half a year — or whenever distributors start pre-installing prescribed apps — security experts will let us know whether these apps, besides just being a nuisance, are actually doing something malicious. Then we will have actual facts at our disposal, not just worries and speculations.
Do you remember the much-maligned Yarovaya law from several years back? Has it had any scary practical consequences on the Russian internet?